There will be many people screaming that Jo Adell is no longer a rookie, and to those people I say, “Stop screaming, I think you’re right,” but by my own admission in my Sixto Sanchez fantasy, I explained I was going by old rookie eligibility rules, because the new ones for just this season were confusing as all get-out. For our purposes, Jo Adell had 130 or less at-bats, so welcome to the resistance (to actual rookie eligibility). And, if porpoises are reading, I want to go on record as saying I never enjoyed Sea World. They’re popcorn was always stale. Never the hoo! Jo Adell, or as I like to call him, last year’s Randy Arozarena. Can y’all remember back to last year when we were like Jo Adell or Mike Trout, which do you prefer? And half of us were like, “Hee-haw! I want Jo Adell!” That aged like a fine cheddar that is stored between your toes. Adell’s season was not, how do I say, good. He went 9/3/7/.161 in 124 ABs. Glad he got those growing pains out of the way, huh? This reminds me of what a wise man named Grey Albright once said, “These prospects, huh?” Ah, no truer words have been said. It is pretty funny how we think we know what we’re getting, yet no one knows anything. Funny, funny stuff. So, what can we expect from Jo Adell in 2021 fantasy baseball?

Digging into Jo Adell’s stats, and. Dot dot dot. Why did we like him again? Seriously, trying to figure it out here. Did he go from one of the best prospects to a guy who won’t be drafted in shallower 12-team mixed leagues in less than 130 at-bats, or is it me? Hint:  It’s not me. He’s got a contact problem. In 2019 in Triple-A, he had a 32.6% strikeout rate and last year in the small sample in the majors it jumped to 41.7%. Forty-one point-seven is not good, boys and five girls. You’re gonna hit .161 there, nearly every single time. He had a little over a month’s worth of stats, so it’s silly to pull anything from that, or his 19.9% swinging strike rate, which is kinda hilarious. If you look at his 2019 strikeout numbers in the minors, and his lower levels, the Ks remain. He’s gonna hit .220 in the majors, huh? How did I not realize this previously? I think I was so enamored with the power (70 grade) that I just ignored the hit tool (35 grade). He also has 60 grade speed, and the easiest comp for me is the guy right in front of him on the Angels’ depth chart:  Justin Upton. But because Adell sucks on average, I might say he’s more of a BJ. Pun noted and intended.

Best case scenario for Adell at his peak (not 2021, but in general) is 35/15/.250. Oh, that’s damn good, don’t get me wrong, but that’s not 2021, as my previous parenthetical pointed out pretty clearly. For 2021, well, his ceiling is decent still. Big power and solid speed is alluring. If he strikes out like he was last year, he’s going to spend a year bouncing between the lineup, the bench and the minors, assuming there’s minors next year. Yes, they’re doing away with anyone under the age of 18. Hey, some of you will have less mouths to feed! I don’t see how those contact problems are magically fixed, but he is only 21 years old. This could be a slow process that takes a few years. Even if it takes four years, he’ll still be young enough to make good on his potential 35/15/.250 by age 25, which I think the Angels would take, but for 2021? Feels like a flyer at best in the last rounds of mixed leagues. For 2021, I’ll give Jo Adell projections of 41/16/48/.228/4 in 378 ABs with a chance for more, and a lot less.

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Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

No, I’m not in this. But, yeah, Marte and Alonso look good there. Hopefully I can snag Albies later. I think 19 is an aberration too. Plesac at 50 seems ridiculous too.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

How about Edwin Diaz at 87 and Ian Anderson at 90… no thanks!!!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, no what either one of us would do. There’s another DC results up to compare:

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

ROUND 5

1.Jesus Luzardo
2. Max Fried
3. Dinelson Lamet
4. Michael Conforto
5. Zach Plesac
6. Stephen Strasburg
7. Austin Meadows
8. Sonny Gray
9. Brandon Lowe
10. Corbin Burnes
11. Mike Clevinger
12. Jeff McNeil
13. Hyun Jin Ryu
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Josh Hader

Round 6

1. Lance Lynn
2. Liam Hendriks
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Javy Baez
6. Pete Alonso
7. Dominic Smith
8. Jose Berrios
9. Chris Paddack
10. Yoan Moncada
11. Sal Perez
12. Dylan Bundy
13. Mike Yastrzemsi
14. Charlie Blackmon
15. Matt Olson

Round 7

1. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Eugenio Suarez
3. Clint Frazier
4. Kyle Hendricks
5. Framber Valdez
6. Ketel Marte
7. Nelson Cruz
8. JD Martinez
9. Max Muncy
10. Madison Bumgarner
11. Aroldis Chapman
12. Nick Castellanos
13. Pablo Lopez
14. Dansby Swanson
15. Kyle Lewis

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, over Lynn, Berrios or Wheeler seems pretty nutty.

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

Now that I think of it. I don’t want to be adelled with Jo in 2021. Meanwhile, the NFBC is up and a DC that started two days ago went like this. Many weird choices. Take it with a grain:

NFBC $150 Draft Champions
Round 1:
1 1 Acuna Jr., Ronald OF
1 2 Tatis Jr., Fernando SS
1 3 Betts, Mookie OF
1 4 Cole, Gerrit P
1 5 Bieber, Shane P
1 6 Ramirez, Jose 3B
1 7 Turner, Trea SS
1 8 deGrom, Jacob P
1 9 Soto, Juan OF
1 10 Trout, Mike OF
1 11 Story, Trevor SS
1 12 Yelich, Christian OF
1 13 Bichette, Bo SS
1 14 Bellinger, Cody OF
1 15 Lindor, Francisco SS

Round 2:
2 16 Freeman, Freddie 1B
2 17 Darvish, Yu P
2 18 Albies, Ozzie 2B
2 19 Harper, Bryce OF
2 20 Bauer, Trevor P
2 21 Giolito, Lucas P
2 22 Nola, Aaron P
2 23 Buehler, Walker P
2 24 LeMahieu, DJ 1B
2 25 Machado, Manny CI
2 26 Castillo, Luis P
2 27 Tucker, Kyle OF
2 28 Abreu, Jose 1B
2 29 Kershaw, Clayton P
2 30 Seager, Corey SS

Round 3:
3 31 Robert, Luis OF
3 32 Bregman, Alex 3B
3 33 Anderson, Tim SS
3 34 Bogaerts, Xander SS
3 35 Ozuna, Marcell OF
3 36 Arenado, Nolan UT
3 37 Flaherty, Jack P
3 38 Mondesi, Adalberto SS
3 39 Realmuto, J.T. C
3 40 Merrifield, Whit 2B
3 41 Woodruff, Brandon P
3 42 Scherzer, Max P
3 43 Jimenez, Eloy OF
3 44 Gallen, Zac P
3 45 Glasnow, Tyler P

Round 4:
4 46 Rendon, Anthony 3B
4 47 Devers, Rafael 3B
4 48 Fried, Max P
4 49 Judge, Aaron OF
4 50 Plesac, Zach P
4 51 Biggio, Cavan MI
4 52 Marte, Starling OF
4 53 Springer, George OF
4 54 Maeda, Kenta P
4 55 Burnes, Corbin P
4 56 Gray, Sonny P
4 57 Lamet, Dinelson P
4 58 Torres, Gleyber MI
4 59 Snell, Blake P
4 60 Arozarena, Randy OF

Round 5:
5 61 Urias, Julio P
5 62 Lewis, Kyle OF
5 63 Strasburg, Stephen P
5 64 Voit, Luke 1B
5 65 Grisham, Trent OF
5 66 Baez, Javier SS
5 67 Alonso, Pete CI
5 68 Ryu, Hyun Jin P
5 69 Lynn, Lance P
5 70 Clevinger, Mike P
5 71 Castellanos, Nick OF
5 72 Hendriks, Liam P
5 73 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 1B
5 74 Hiura, Keston 2B
5 75 Blackmon, Charlie OF

Round 6:
6 76 Meadows, Austin OF
6 77 Hader, Josh P
6 78 Lowe, Brandon MI
6 79 Cruz, Nelson UT
6 80 Hernandez, Teoscar OF
6 81 Suarez, Eugenio CI
6 82 Carrasco, Carlos P
6 83 Alvarez, Yordan UT
6 84 Smith, Dominic OF
6 85 Hand, Brad P
6 86 Marte, Ketel 2B
6 87 Diaz, Edwin P
6 88 Olson, Matt CI
6 89 Conforto, Michael OF
6 90 Anderson, Ian P

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
1 year ago

Man,

I’m just not very high on this guy. He’s done nothing to prove he can hit yet at the MLB level. Maybe he’ll just need a few seasons to get all the ingredients working together. But we’ve been saying that about Byron Buxton for 8 years now. Then again, maybe he won’t.

Hard Pass.

William
William
1 year ago

I have Arozarena on one of my leagues and I got this offer.

Arozarena for Lacy and Hudson Head

or

Arozarena and Happ for Lacy and Riley Greene

What should I do? It’s a 30-team dynasty contract league

JayJ
JayJ
1 year ago

i want to see a ke’bryan hayes fantasy outlook. Looking forward to that one if there is one.

Jon Gray’s broken Toe
Jon Gray’s broken Toe
1 year ago

I believe 2021 Jo Adell is similar to 2020 Brandon Lowe. These two guys have nothin in common… except they both had a high k rate in their rookie season AND a small sample size. Everything in this article could be true, but at the same time you kinda have to statistically throw out Adell’s 240 something career ABs between AAA and the majors. The sample is too small. Notwithstanding, scouts can make serious hay from 240 ABs.

Everyone was screaming Lowe to regress badly in 2020 from his Rookie season .300ish batting average due to bad K rate, but he too had a low sample size.

Not saying Adell wont suck next year, I actually agree with Grey’s prediction, but this is a dynamic situation and he could turn it around pretty quick. Another Angel comes to mind who also completely sucked in his first cup of coffee.

Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Totally agree that Lowe has a significantly better hit tool grade, but Adell’s hit tool only became a problem for prognosticators after 240 horrible at bats. The small sample size in stats are influencing folks interpretation of the grade.

I am not saying Adell will hit like Lowe, they have nothing in common. I am saying folks are letting small sample size affect their assessment of Adell. This guy has made quick adjustment before. He could still become that .260-.270 hitter we all dreamed of in short order.

But I am with you in the short term, 2021 will probably be a bumpy road for Adell

Smitty
1 year ago

Out on Adell until further notice. Joe has fallen behind many others for 2021 for me.

Wake Up
Wake Up
1 year ago

How am I just finding out that Hunter Pence’s dad is in the new Borat film?

Phil
Phil
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I enjoyed it, but definitely safer than This is America or the last one. Glad it came out before election anyway

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

Love Adele, some really good songs and she is so humble. What?! oh not that Adell. Not a fan of Joe, gonna be a bust IMHO

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
1 year ago

Good stuff Greystache (no? okay) Keep em coming Lothario!

Carlos
Carlos
1 year ago

Would you trade Adell for Tim Anderson in a contract league where Adell has 6 years left and Anderson has 2? I’m a contending team and it’s a 30-team dynasty.

Would you also do (Tucker or Arozarena) for Ian Anderson?

And last one would be, would you trade mick abel and isaiah greene for george kirby or logan gilbert?

Carlos
Carlos
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

You prefer the Ian Anderson side?

And would you offer Abel and Greene for Lodolo too?

Carlos
Carlos
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Sorry last question.

What if I offer Greene and Escotto for Lodolo? Do you still prefer the Greene side?

Carlos
Carlos
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thank you! I guess you’d also take the Abel and Isaiah Greene side for Kirby?

Cram It
Cram It
1 year ago

I was looking back at my interview with JFOH when I was RCL champion because that’s how full of myself I am, and had totally forgotten about…..The Championship Belt! It was the trophy for winning the FCL. I wonder if that thing is still part of the FCL.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Cram It
1 year ago

Yes. Backdoor Sliders had it for 2019. Not sure if its transferred for 2020.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  The Great Knoche
1 year ago

That’s awesome.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

There was when I was in the FCL. And I guess it’s still a thing! I paid to ship it along.

https://imgur.com/ZLuCMpW

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Too much rotten Kombucha.

You should have one made for Perts League. Truss needs something to do in off season anyways.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I get it first!

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

Im pretty much in agreement with you on Adell. The talent is there but time will tell if he matures into a great player or the next Lewis Brinson. I highly doubt that will be in 2021. Im not going to draft him unless he falls to 300+ ADP, which I doubt he will. Coolwhip can have him.