There will be many people screaming that Jo Adell is no longer a rookie, and to those people I say, “Stop screaming, I think you’re right,” but by my own admission in my Sixto Sanchez fantasy, I explained I was going by old rookie eligibility rules, because the new ones for just this season were confusing as all get-out. For our purposes, Jo Adell had 130 or less at-bats, so welcome to the resistance (to actual rookie eligibility). And, if porpoises are reading, I want to go on record as saying I never enjoyed Sea World. They’re popcorn was always stale. Never the hoo! Jo Adell, or as I like to call him, last year’s Randy Arozarena. Can y’all remember back to last year when we were like Jo Adell or Mike Trout, which do you prefer? And half of us were like, “Hee-haw! I want Jo Adell!” That aged like a fine cheddar that is stored between your toes. Adell’s season was not, how do I say, good. He went 9/3/7/.161 in 124 ABs. Glad he got those growing pains out of the way, huh? This reminds me of what a wise man named Grey Albright once said, “These prospects, huh?” Ah, no truer words have been said. It is pretty funny how we think we know what we’re getting, yet no one knows anything. Funny, funny stuff. So, what can we expect from Jo Adell in 2021 fantasy baseball?

Digging into Jo Adell’s stats, and. Dot dot dot. Why did we like him again? Seriously, trying to figure it out here. Did he go from one of the best prospects to a guy who won’t be drafted in shallower 12-team mixed leagues in less than 130 at-bats, or is it me? Hint:  It’s not me. He’s got a contact problem. In 2019 in Triple-A, he had a 32.6% strikeout rate and last year in the small sample in the majors it jumped to 41.7%. Forty-one point-seven is not good, boys and five girls. You’re gonna hit .161 there, nearly every single time. He had a little over a month’s worth of stats, so it’s silly to pull anything from that, or his 19.9% swinging strike rate, which is kinda hilarious. If you look at his 2019 strikeout numbers in the minors, and his lower levels, the Ks remain. He’s gonna hit .220 in the majors, huh? How did I not realize this previously? I think I was so enamored with the power (70 grade) that I just ignored the hit tool (35 grade). He also has 60 grade speed, and the easiest comp for me is the guy right in front of him on the Angels’ depth chart:  Justin Upton. But because Adell sucks on average, I might say he’s more of a BJ. Pun noted and intended.

Best case scenario for Adell at his peak (not 2021, but in general) is 35/15/.250. Oh, that’s damn good, don’t get me wrong, but that’s not 2021, as my previous parenthetical pointed out pretty clearly. For 2021, well, his ceiling is decent still. Big power and solid speed is alluring. If he strikes out like he was last year, he’s going to spend a year bouncing between the lineup, the bench and the minors, assuming there’s minors next year. Yes, they’re doing away with anyone under the age of 18. Hey, some of you will have less mouths to feed! I don’t see how those contact problems are magically fixed, but he is only 21 years old. This could be a slow process that takes a few years. Even if it takes four years, he’ll still be young enough to make good on his potential 35/15/.250 by age 25, which I think the Angels would take, but for 2021? Feels like a flyer at best in the last rounds of mixed leagues. For 2021, I’ll give Jo Adell projections of 41/16/48/.228/4 in 378 ABs with a chance for more, and a lot less.

 
  1. Dave D says:
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    Im pretty much in agreement with you on Adell. The talent is there but time will tell if he matures into a great player or the next Lewis Brinson. I highly doubt that will be in 2021. Im not going to draft him unless he falls to 300+ ADP, which I doubt he will. Coolwhip can have him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yeah, same, plenty of Adell to go around for Coolwhip!

  2. Cram It says:
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    I was looking back at my interview with JFOH when I was RCL champion because that’s how full of myself I am, and had totally forgotten about…..The Championship Belt! It was the trophy for winning the FCL. I wonder if that thing is still part of the FCL.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      Yes. Backdoor Sliders had it for 2019. Not sure if its transferred for 2020.

      • Cram It says:
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        That’s awesome.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Haha, that’s amazing! I want a championship belt — does the winner from the previous year have to pay to ship it to the next winner?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, there’s a belt?!

      • Cram It says:
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        There was when I was in the FCL. And I guess it’s still a thing! I paid to ship it along.

        https://imgur.com/ZLuCMpW

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh my god, that’s amazing…How did I not know about this?

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            Too much rotten Kombucha.

            You should have one made for Perts League. Truss needs something to do in off season anyways.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Truss should make us a belt!

              • Cram It says:
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                I get it first!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Then you pay for shipping first!

  3. Carlos says:
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    Would you trade Adell for Tim Anderson in a contract league where Adell has 6 years left and Anderson has 2? I’m a contending team and it’s a 30-team dynasty.

    Would you also do (Tucker or Arozarena) for Ian Anderson?

    And last one would be, would you trade mick abel and isaiah greene for george kirby or logan gilbert?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Tim Anderson

      I wouldn’t do that for Ian Anderson

      I’d take Gilbert

      • Carlos says:
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        You prefer the Ian Anderson side?

        And would you offer Abel and Greene for Lodolo too?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d want Tucker or Arozarena

          Nah not Lodolo

          • Carlos says:
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            Sorry last question.

            What if I offer Greene and Escotto for Lodolo? Do you still prefer the Greene side?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah

              • Carlos says:
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                Thank you! I guess you’d also take the Abel and Isaiah Greene side for Kirby?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yup

  4. Stl Squat Cobblers says:
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    Good stuff Greystache (no? okay) Keep em coming Lothario!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yes!

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Love Adele, some really good songs and she is so humble. What?! oh not that Adell. Not a fan of Joe, gonna be a bust IMHO

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, I liked older Adele stuff, which is apt since she names her albums after her age

  6. Wake Up says:
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    How am I just finding out that Hunter Pence’s dad is in the new Borat film?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      What? Seriously?

      Film was disappointing btw

      • Phil says:
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        I enjoyed it, but definitely safer than This is America or the last one. Glad it came out before election anyway

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I think he suffered from his own success…Obviously felt the need up front to show how everyone recognized him, then, because of that, he had to do different characters and have his daughter take a huge role — felt that all took away from it

  7. Smitty says:
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    Out on Adell until further notice. Joe has fallen behind many others for 2021 for me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup, agreed!

  8. Jon Gray’s broken Toe says:
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    I believe 2021 Jo Adell is similar to 2020 Brandon Lowe. These two guys have nothin in common… except they both had a high k rate in their rookie season AND a small sample size. Everything in this article could be true, but at the same time you kinda have to statistically throw out Adell’s 240 something career ABs between AAA and the majors. The sample is too small. Notwithstanding, scouts can make serious hay from 240 ABs.

    Everyone was screaming Lowe to regress badly in 2020 from his Rookie season .300ish batting average due to bad K rate, but he too had a low sample size.

    Not saying Adell wont suck next year, I actually agree with Grey’s prediction, but this is a dynamic situation and he could turn it around pretty quick. Another Angel comes to mind who also completely sucked in his first cup of coffee.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Big problem with the comp is Lowe is a 50-grade hit tool guy — he’s a .265+ hitter — Adell is a 40 hit tool guy, and might not hit .230

      • Jon Gray’s Broken Toe says:
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        Totally agree that Lowe has a significantly better hit tool grade, but Adell’s hit tool only became a problem for prognosticators after 240 horrible at bats. The small sample size in stats are influencing folks interpretation of the grade.

        I am not saying Adell will hit like Lowe, they have nothing in common. I am saying folks are letting small sample size affect their assessment of Adell. This guy has made quick adjustment before. He could still become that .260-.270 hitter we all dreamed of in short order.

        But I am with you in the short term, 2021 will probably be a bumpy road for Adell

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, could be…Hopefully you’re right after 2021

  9. JayJ says:
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    i want to see a ke’bryan hayes fantasy outlook. Looking forward to that one if there is one.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, it’s coming

  10. William says:
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    I have Arozarena on one of my leagues and I got this offer.

    Arozarena for Lacy and Hudson Head

    or

    Arozarena and Happ for Lacy and Riley Greene

    What should I do? It’s a 30-team dynasty contract league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hold

  11. Harley Earl says:
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    Man,

    I’m just not very high on this guy. He’s done nothing to prove he can hit yet at the MLB level. Maybe he’ll just need a few seasons to get all the ingredients working together. But we’ve been saying that about Byron Buxton for 8 years now. Then again, maybe he won’t.

    Hard Pass.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gotcha

  12. Dave D says:
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    Now that I think of it. I don’t want to be adelled with Jo in 2021. Meanwhile, the NFBC is up and a DC that started two days ago went like this. Many weird choices. Take it with a grain:

    NFBC $150 Draft Champions
    Round 1:
    1 1 Acuna Jr., Ronald OF
    1 2 Tatis Jr., Fernando SS
    1 3 Betts, Mookie OF
    1 4 Cole, Gerrit P
    1 5 Bieber, Shane P
    1 6 Ramirez, Jose 3B
    1 7 Turner, Trea SS
    1 8 deGrom, Jacob P
    1 9 Soto, Juan OF
    1 10 Trout, Mike OF
    1 11 Story, Trevor SS
    1 12 Yelich, Christian OF
    1 13 Bichette, Bo SS
    1 14 Bellinger, Cody OF
    1 15 Lindor, Francisco SS

    Round 2:
    2 16 Freeman, Freddie 1B
    2 17 Darvish, Yu P
    2 18 Albies, Ozzie 2B
    2 19 Harper, Bryce OF
    2 20 Bauer, Trevor P
    2 21 Giolito, Lucas P
    2 22 Nola, Aaron P
    2 23 Buehler, Walker P
    2 24 LeMahieu, DJ 1B
    2 25 Machado, Manny CI
    2 26 Castillo, Luis P
    2 27 Tucker, Kyle OF
    2 28 Abreu, Jose 1B
    2 29 Kershaw, Clayton P
    2 30 Seager, Corey SS

    Round 3:
    3 31 Robert, Luis OF
    3 32 Bregman, Alex 3B
    3 33 Anderson, Tim SS
    3 34 Bogaerts, Xander SS
    3 35 Ozuna, Marcell OF
    3 36 Arenado, Nolan UT
    3 37 Flaherty, Jack P
    3 38 Mondesi, Adalberto SS
    3 39 Realmuto, J.T. C
    3 40 Merrifield, Whit 2B
    3 41 Woodruff, Brandon P
    3 42 Scherzer, Max P
    3 43 Jimenez, Eloy OF
    3 44 Gallen, Zac P
    3 45 Glasnow, Tyler P

    Round 4:
    4 46 Rendon, Anthony 3B
    4 47 Devers, Rafael 3B
    4 48 Fried, Max P
    4 49 Judge, Aaron OF
    4 50 Plesac, Zach P
    4 51 Biggio, Cavan MI
    4 52 Marte, Starling OF
    4 53 Springer, George OF
    4 54 Maeda, Kenta P
    4 55 Burnes, Corbin P
    4 56 Gray, Sonny P
    4 57 Lamet, Dinelson P
    4 58 Torres, Gleyber MI
    4 59 Snell, Blake P
    4 60 Arozarena, Randy OF

    Round 5:
    5 61 Urias, Julio P
    5 62 Lewis, Kyle OF
    5 63 Strasburg, Stephen P
    5 64 Voit, Luke 1B
    5 65 Grisham, Trent OF
    5 66 Baez, Javier SS
    5 67 Alonso, Pete CI
    5 68 Ryu, Hyun Jin P
    5 69 Lynn, Lance P
    5 70 Clevinger, Mike P
    5 71 Castellanos, Nick OF
    5 72 Hendriks, Liam P
    5 73 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 1B
    5 74 Hiura, Keston 2B
    5 75 Blackmon, Charlie OF

    Round 6:
    6 76 Meadows, Austin OF
    6 77 Hader, Josh P
    6 78 Lowe, Brandon MI
    6 79 Cruz, Nelson UT
    6 80 Hernandez, Teoscar OF
    6 81 Suarez, Eugenio CI
    6 82 Carrasco, Carlos P
    6 83 Alvarez, Yordan UT
    6 84 Smith, Dominic OF
    6 85 Hand, Brad P
    6 86 Marte, Ketel 2B
    6 87 Diaz, Edwin P
    6 88 Olson, Matt CI
    6 89 Conforto, Michael OF
    6 90 Anderson, Ian P

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You’re in this or no?

      Bellinger after Bichette is hilarious, but I don’t think it stays like that…Maybe I guess, but wow

      Kyle Lewis in the 5th round! Haha, I think the people are still trying to get a feel for where they can take guys they want…

      Ketel Marte at pick 86 is a ‘sign me up’ once again

  13. Dave D says:
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    No, I’m not in this. But, yeah, Marte and Alonso look good there. Hopefully I can snag Albies later. I think 19 is an aberration too. Plesac at 50 seems ridiculous too.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, there were too many to specifically mention, but it looks like a bunch of people floundering to figure out ADP

      • Dave D says:
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        How about Edwin Diaz at 87 and Ian Anderson at 90… no thanks!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, how about Kershaw as top 30 — and 11 SPs in the 1st 30 picks, just throwing darts

          • Dave D says:
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            Yeah, no what either one of us would do. There’s another DC results up to compare:

            Round 1

            1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
            2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
            3. Shane Bieber
            4. Mookie Betts
            5. Mike Trout
            6. Jose Ramirez
            7. Gerritt Cole
            8. Juan Soto
            9. Christian Yelich
            10. Trevor Story
            11. Jake deGrom
            12. DJ Lemahieu
            13. Trea Turner
            14. Freddy Freeman
            15. Manny Machado

            Round 2

            1, Cody Bellinger
            2. Francisco Lindor
            3. Bryce Harper
            4. Corey Seager
            5. Trevor Bauer
            6. Jack Flaherty
            7. Yu Darvish
            8. Max Scherzer
            9. Bo Bichette
            10. Lucas Giolito
            11. Aaron Judge
            12. Alex Bregman
            13. Walker Buehler
            14. Clayton Kershaw
            15. Aaron Nola

            Round 3

            1. Zac Gallen
            2. Jose Abreu
            3. Tim Anderson
            4. Nolan Arenado
            5. Kenta Maeda
            6. Whit Merrifield
            7. Luis Castillo
            8. Adalberto Mondesi
            9. Xander Bogaerts
            10. Gleyber Torres
            11. Luis Robert
            12. Kyle Tucker
            13. JT Realmuto
            14. Anthony Rendon
            15. Marcell Ozuna

            Round 4

            1. Brandon Woodruff
            2. Eloy Jimenez
            3. Trent Grisham
            4. Tyler Glasnow
            5. Rafael Devers
            6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
            7. Starling Marte
            8. Luke Voit
            9. Ozzie Albies
            10. Cavan Biggio
            11. Eric Hosmer
            12. Blake Snell
            13. Keston Hiura
            14. Teoscar Hernandez
            15. George Springer

            ROUND 5

            1.Jesus Luzardo
            2. Max Fried
            3. Dinelson Lamet
            4. Michael Conforto
            5. Zach Plesac
            6. Stephen Strasburg
            7. Austin Meadows
            8. Sonny Gray
            9. Brandon Lowe
            10. Corbin Burnes
            11. Mike Clevinger
            12. Jeff McNeil
            13. Hyun Jin Ryu
            14. Sixto Sanchez
            15. Josh Hader

            Round 6

            1. Lance Lynn
            2. Liam Hendriks
            3. Carlos Carrasco
            4. Zack Wheeler
            5. Javy Baez
            6. Pete Alonso
            7. Dominic Smith
            8. Jose Berrios
            9. Chris Paddack
            10. Yoan Moncada
            11. Sal Perez
            12. Dylan Bundy
            13. Mike Yastrzemsi
            14. Charlie Blackmon
            15. Matt Olson

            Round 7

            1. Giancarlo Stanton
            2. Eugenio Suarez
            3. Clint Frazier
            4. Kyle Hendricks
            5. Framber Valdez
            6. Ketel Marte
            7. Nelson Cruz
            8. JD Martinez
            9. Max Muncy
            10. Madison Bumgarner
            11. Aroldis Chapman
            12. Nick Castellanos
            13. Pablo Lopez
            14. Dansby Swanson
            15. Kyle Lewis

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I will say I hope some of these stay where they’re at but the Austin Meadows thru Hader run had me laughing loudly, thank you for this mid-afternoon laugh

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Sixto Sanchez! I mean, wow

                • Dave D says:
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                  Yeah, over Lynn, Berrios or Wheeler seems pretty nutty.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Not smart

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