I must admit my brain is slightly damaged because I see that Dylan Carlson plays for the Cardinals and I think of Harrison Bader and thank u, next. So, let’s get the elephant out of the room first and talk to our contractors about why they made the doorway big enough for the elephant to begin with, but no nightlight by our bed so we can read. Dylan Carlson isn’t Harrison Bader. No one is Bader, according to his 23 and Me profile; he’s a special snowflake. In 2017, Bader went 20/15/.283 in Triple-A and last year Carlson went 21/18/.281 in Double-A. I told you, huge difference! *long gulp, pulls on collar, sweat trickles* Okay, so maybe there’s some similarities? Bader actually has quote-unquote more speed than Carlson, less power and struggled more with plate discipline than Carlson (at different levels, but you’re the one who wanted this comparison. Okay, okay, OKAY, maybe I wanted the comparison, but here we are now). Results vary obviously, but if you told me Carlson and Bader would result in 100% of the same stats, I wouldn’t be wholly surprised. Carlson does look better, however, so…Anyway, what can we expect from Dylan Carlson for 2020 fantasy baseball?

First, some video:

As you can clearly see, Dylan Carlson has easy power–Wait a minute, the title of that says, “This Is Not Dylan Carlson.” Well, I’ll be a monkey’s uncle who scratches his butt for a living, that’s not Dylan Carlson! That’s Harrison Bader! Damn it! This is Dylan Carlson (the title gives it away):

Like a scrounchie, don’t get it twisted, Carlson does have more power than Bader. I just pulled an oppo taco video for s’s and g’s. His leg kick provides plenty of power and he’s a switch hitter that can hit from both sides of the plate, so a natural platoon shouldn’t be an issue. Speaking of which, playing time. Who’s got it, who wants it and who can’t get enough? Please check out my Soundcloud for more. Wait, I don’t have a Soundcloud. OZUNA is a free agent, so that’s a wild card; the Cards have a guy who rhymes with Garrison Lader, and Fowler is under contract for a while, but he is Dexter Fowler, so bleh. A lot is unknown about how the Cards see their outfield shituation as of right now. I know how I see it. Carlson, Bader and a free agent with Fowler moved to the bench, but Fowler wasn’t awful last year and is owed a lot, so it might be Carlson, Bader and Fowler as of right now, and any free agent signing hurts Carlson. Then there’s Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez, Johnny Depp playing Rango, wait, no, that’s Rangel Ravelo, I mean, jfc, how many outfielders do the Cardinals have? This is the pickle and it might be sour. I’m going to tentatively give Carlson five of six months of stats, but it could change with an offseason acquisition, and everyday playing time seems iffy even if he’s with the major league club. For 2020, I’ll give Carlson projections of 34/13/38/.261/4 in 277 ABs, but there’s a chance here for more and less.

  1. LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
    (link)

    Heard this last night. Phillies Hire Joe Girardi…………………..Great News! good game manager and he can reasonably use the analytics without being robotic. plus i think he will bring discipline and control to some of these players.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup, saw that — good hire by the Phils, much better than Kapler and it leaves the Mets with choosing between Long Island Lolita, Amy Fisher, and The Bagel Boss

  2. Matty says:
    (link)

    I was hoping that Carlson was Canadian, so this would be less of a non-sequitur; thought I’d share this paper that my wife shared with me the other day (by sharing a baseball article she’s tacitly endorsing all the time I spend playing fantasy baseball, right?).
    Figured this would be interesting to the more saberhagenmetrically or otherwise statistically inclined as we go into the slow off season.

    PLOS One published a paper entitled “Sinister right-handedness provides Canadian-born Major League Baseball players with an offensive advantage: A further test of the hockey influence on batting hypothesis.”
    Sinister right-handedness was a new term to me.
    The clincher from the abstract: “Recent research has shown Major League Baseball (MLB) players that bat left-handed and throw right-handed, otherwise known as sinister right-handers, are more likely to have a career batting average (BA) of .299 or higher compared to players with other combinations of batting and throwing handedness. Moreover, possibly owing to early exposure to hockey, Canadian-born MLB players have an increased propensity to be sinister right-handers, however, it has yet to be determined whether this provides a relative offensive performance advantage compared to players born in other countries.”
    They used archival MLB stats to run the analysis, Canadian players are at least twice as likely as players from other regions to be ‘sinister right handers,’ the whole thing is pretty interesting.
    I’m reluctant to post a direct link, but it’s open access and quick to find with a search engine.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s fascinating! No, please, post a link, I want to read further!

  3. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Received these two offers..

    His Mike Clevenger for

    My Ramon Laureano and Justin Turner

    or

    My Lance McCullers JR and Jonathon Villar

    what do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Clevinger for Laureano/Turner

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        Dont like giving up Laureano, but Clevinger is worth it.. MY Sps are getting old, JV, Max, Hole Camels, and YU, time to start upgrading..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          McCullers does nothing for me, but Villar prolly will be near Clevinger on his own

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            But Turner does nothing for me either… It’s really whether you want to give up Laureano or Villar

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
              (link)

              Rather keep Villar, especially for steals and versatility. I have plenty of OF depth..

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, thinking same

                • Malicious Phenoms says:
                  (link)

                  Did not realise Clevinger will be 29 in Dec.

                  • Malicious Phenoms says:
                    (link)

                    Plus the back issues..

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Yeah, but he’s pitched 200 IP already, and how old are Verlander, Kershaw, Strasburg and the rest of the top 10 SPs from last year?

              • Clev for Laureano MP

  4. JJJJ says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey. Who do you like most as a 2B for a competitive but capped out dynasty team? 6×6 OPS. I might have the space to keep two of them:

    Kolten Wong
    Nick Solak
    Luis Arraez
    Nico Hoerner
    Tommy La Stella

    I’m bringing back the rest of my lineup as is. I finished 1st in R+SB, 2nd in HR+RBI+OPS, and 4th in AVG.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wong, Solak

    • JJJJ says:
      (link)

      Sorry for the repeat post :(

  5. JJJJJJ says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey. Who do you like most as a 2B for a competitive but capped out dynasty team? 6×6 OPS. I might have the space to keep two of them:

    Kolten Wong
    Nick Solak
    Luis Arraez
    Nico Hoerner
    Tommy La Stella

    I’m bringing back the rest of my lineup as is. I finished 1st in R+SB, 2nd in HR+RBI+OPS, and 4th in AVG.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wong, Solak

  6. Member Berries says:
    (link)

    Standard scoring, who do like best for next season between:

    Luke Weaver, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Yarbrough, or Joey Lucchesi

    Thanks!

    It’s been rough seeing the Dodgers lose to the World Series winner the last 4 years… or do you think Stros come back?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Lamet

      My money’s been on the Nats since the playoffs started, might actually win some dough at NFBC

  7. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Jayce Tingler…..?? I guess better than Ron Washington, but seems to me you’re putting a team that has no sense of urgency, accountability or responsibility in the hands of a first time 38 year old manager. Doesnt smell like a recipe for success

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Meh, I don’t mind it, but I also thought Jayce Tingler was a segment on HBO’s Real Sex until about 24 hours ago

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        True. Can’t believe they didn’t talk to Hurdle with all their young pitchers with great strikeout ability.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha, and Ray Searage comes for free!

  8. Smitty says:
    (link)

    1st rounder Carlson has some tools. A power/speed combo worth monitoring
    That lineup needs help

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, we’ll see on PT for 2020

  9. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Justin Turner for Domingo German in a dynasty

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        I send

        McCullers
        Turner
        Laureano

        I get

        Clevinger
        German

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Meh, you’re paying a lot, Domingo might get suspended for 80 games due to domestic violence, so you might not get much in 2020

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
            (link)

            Agreed..thanks for saving me from what could be a big mistake..

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

  10. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
    (link)

    Maddon introduced today, first thing he said when he got to the podium was “Good afternoon… How cool is this?” then he started talking about being with the org 30 years ago. Obviously I’m hyped up on emotion and homerism right now, but his short speech gave me hope that he might be just the guy to right the ship. The son returning home to fix the corrupted mess, Walking Tall anyone?

    • Coolwhip

      Coolwhip says:
      (link)

      he also said, “we’re going to bunt this year” butttt happy thoughts! lol

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Haha, yeah, saw that, good for Maddon, injecting some lightheartedness in that organization

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, it’s the best thing that’s happened to the Angels in a while, and it is a solid direction, which is encouraging

  11. Harley Earl says:
    (link)

    I see your concerns with PT for Carlson and they are justified. As a Cardinals fan, who pays very close attention to the Birds on the Bat, I think Carlson will get a much harder look and longer leash than you’re ready to suggest.

    My bet is he alternates between all three OF spots with CF being his most-played position. I think Carlson gets around 400-to-425 at-bats, and quite possibly much more. I have a strong sense that he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup. Obviously, if he struggles, his PT could be reduced to nothing.

    Just my two cents. But you seem to be a lot closer to being right on these forecasts than I ever am, so my two cents is probably worth one-half cent.

    Keep up the good work!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Appreciate your input! There’s a new post with a chance for more!

  12. Miketron says:
    (link)

    No one seems to have mentioned this, but Carlson actually went 21/18/.281 in AA not 21/8/.281. if you take into account his AAA numbers he went 20/20 last year which Bader never has. They seem pretty different to me, but I’m curious what a razz prospector would say.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oops, typo on my part, good catch… He doesn’t have real speed though, which is a concern… 18 SBs in Double-A doesn’t easily translate to 18 SBs in the majors

  13. While the kid is worth monitoring I’m not as optimistic. Seems the Cardinals have a trio already in place with Fowler, Bader, and Js. Martinez. Not very impressive, so Carlson will play if he produces and may end up getting most AB’s vs RHP. However, he’s only had 1 solid season since being drafted out of high school and still quite young. With Goldy locked in don’t see Martinez getting much time at 1B and O’Neill could figures in as well.
    9/36/8/.255 in 378 AB

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, potentially

Comments are closed.