Happy Father’s Day to all of my fellow fathers out there. May your days be filled with copious amounts of meat, and a responsible amount of beer. I mean let’s not get out of hand here. But I don’t need to tell all of you that because we’re all responsible adults. Forgive me if a ramble a bit in this week’s post; I just got back from a Cuban themed BBQ complete with a Latin jazz quintet, open bar, and weird fat white lady rolling cigars. So what can I say, I’m a few mojitos deep and ready to talk some daily fantasy baseball. I thought of featuring nothing but Cuban players but then I couldn’t talk about Jose Quintana!! Was that an awkward segue? Yeah it was but whatever, let’s move along. Jose Quintana faces the Rangers today and the Streamonator loves him. So much so that he’s priced at a $23.1 value which is the second highest rank of the day, just below Masahiro Tanaka and above Matt Harvey. I’m sure the SoN is factoring in the Rangers struggles vs LHP, in particular that 23.9% K%. Quintana’s ratio have been a bit skewed by three bad starts earlier in the year and the others have been consistently 6+ innings, under 3 earned, and 5 plus K’s with some potential for more. He’s your typical high floor value play on DraftKings. He’s priced economically at $7,300 which gives you some coin to pair him with Matt Harvey or Tanaka.
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Matt Harvey, SP: $10,800 – I’m not telling you to not start Harvey against the Braves because that would be crazy. What I am saying is temper expectations when it comes to strikeout totals. The Braves strikeout at a lower rate than just about anyone in the league. In fact against RHP it’s 16.8% which is third best in the league. We all know how important the K’s are to Harvey’s value and his potential DraftKings score. He should still be a solid play with low run totals expected in this one by Vegas as the under/over sits at 6.5.
Julio Teheran, SP: $7,500 – Up to this point it’s been a rough go of it for Teheran. He’s sporting a 5.05 FIP, and the results have been pretty bad. After watching the past three starts from Teheran, and at times he’s looked to be snapping out of his funk and putting it together again. But then something happens, a hit, a bad defensive play behind him, and he just seems to get frustrated/lose his confidence or something. He may just need a couple of good starts and a few things to go his way. Today he faces a Mets team that’s toward the bottom of the league in most team offensive categories. At the price of $7,500 he’s an alternative to Quintana or a good arm to pair to free up some budget for bats.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4,400 – Through 29 games, Lucroy has been pretty disappointing. If you drafted him as a premium bat at catcher, you’re probably ready to call it a season and prepare for Fantasy Football. Well it’s okay, jilted Lucroy owner, the best part of DFS is you only have to look at today and not worry about tomorrow. As for today Lucroy could be money; he faces a lefty in Colorado and that’s a matchup to like. His career OPS vs southpaws is .868 and it’s not like Chris Rusin is some dominant lefty ready to buck that trend. Lucroy is worth the coin for this one, Pay Up Sucka!!
Brandon Moss, 1B: $4,200 – Throughout Moss’ career he’s always hit a disproportionate amount of his homers vs RHP. Today he faces Rays rookie Alex Colome who just so happens to be giving up taters at a 1.65 HR/9 rate. I’m not saying Brandon Moss is going to hit a homer but he’s totally going to hit one.
DJ LeMahieu, 2B/3B: $3,700 – All I have to say is Matt Garza at Coors…. Okay I’m going to say more, but not much more. DJ’s price is criminal when you consider he’s facing Garza at home.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B: $4,200 – Am I talking about this game too much? Well tough cookies, Vegas agrees with me about a potential offensive explosion as they placed the total at 11. So why am I considering the old man at the corner? Because the price for any of the top 10 options at 3rd are pretty steep today and the only way you’re going to be able to fit in some top flight arms is to find some value plays. Ramirez is a nice piece for the pitching rich manager diving in the dumpster for bats.
Dodger Outfielders – Both Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson are great values at $3,900 a piece. I’m not sure what DraftKings knows that the rest of us don’t. Because the SoN hates Lincecum today and Big Time Timmy Jim has been regressing his last five starts. Pederson has been crushing the ball this year and he banged another big fly last night. As for Puig, he was moved into the leadoff spot and more at bats means more opportunities for points on DraftKings. Truth be told, I’m filling up my lineups with Rockies, Brewers, and Dodgers. I just have zero faith in Lincecum. Vegas agrees they have the Dodgers as a -151 favorite.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Two games with any real chance of rain today. Those games are Tampa Bay at Cleveland and the Marlins at the Reds. Neither game has a real serious chance of long delays but there’s at least a slight chance we see raindrops. One other tidbit of a weather related nature in that Reds game there’s a 14 mph wind blowing out to left.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The biggest favorite of the day is Michael Wacha and the Cards at -221, and they’re facing the Phillies, so yeah that makes total sense. The highest total is 11 in the Brewers vs Rockies game at Coors. The lowest total is in the Mets and Braves game, which was mentioned previously in my Teheran and Harvey blurbs.
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