Hey everyone, welcome to Sunday, and happy Father’s Day!
We’ve got another great 11-game slate that features a ton of offense, with many pitchers to attack on the slate. One of the biggest reasons why there are plenty of offenses to chose from is because there are many examples of the opposing SP having a high HR/FB-rate, and a high Hard%. Both of these two stats can accurately predict if a pitcher will give up some home runs. HR/FB-rate is exactly what it sounds like, a HR to fly ball ratio, giving an accurate representation how how well a batter’s ability is to create fly balls, and in turn, convert those to dingers. If a SP has a high HR/FB-rate, they have some serious blowup potential, as most of their fly balls given up results in homers.
Same thing applies with a pitcher who has a high Hard%. This means that most of the balls put in play off of the pitcher are classified as being hit with a hard speed. In more simpler terms, you can’t have extra-base hits if you hit a soft lob into the outfield.
We have many different pitchers who have high HR/FB-rates and high Hard%’s, which increases their likelihood of giving up some runs, which we would all like to have.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
David Price, SP: $11,000 – Price is in a very good position today, and he might even be a little underowned with deGrom on the slate as well. Not only is Price the biggest favorite on the docket with a ML of -200, he is also a great candidate for a multi-K performance. In 2016 he has a wonderful 27% K-rate, with an even better 14% SwK-rate. He’ll face off against Seattle, which should decreased his ownership levels, but Price is still my #1 guy with a fantastic offense behind him.
Carlos Carrasco, SP: $8,700 – Another healthy favorite against the Chicago White Sox, I am perfectly fine with Carrasco as my SP2 with Price or deGrom. A GPP-only target, he has some potential to be blown up, yet at the same time is a nice groundball pitcher with a 53% GB-rate, to go along with his 23% K-rate and 10% SwK-rate. Favorited by -180, he presents some risks, but will eventually give us back some rewards.
Jacob deGrom, SP: $11,300 – It’s hard to say if deGrom will be the #1 owned SP tonight, but even if he is or isn’t, going against Atlanta with a ML of -190 should warrant a start on our cash-game teams. The best thing going for him in cash games is his high GB-rate, combined with a fairly good K%, and the fact that he has only a 8% HR/FB-rate, meaning it is very unlikely that he’ll be blown up.
Yan Gomes, C: $2,600 – Gomes is a very fine option if you want to punt the Catcher position today. Going up against Carlos Rodon, Rodon owns a 4.73 xFIP, a 10% BB-rate, and a .360 wOBA allowed to righties, and has the potential to be blown up. Although Gomes doesn’t get on base as much as I would like to see (low walk and .308 wOBA rates), he still has the upside for a multi-HR game with his .208 ISO against LHP’s. He’s worth a flier to get those high-priced studs.
Joe Mauer, 1B: $4,200 – Mauer is a great candidate to rack up some hits and in turn, RBI’s. He draws a matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who thus far in 2016, has some blowup potential with a 17.40% HR/FB-rate, and against lefties, has a 4.09 xFIP against, a .383 wOBA, and has even more blowup potential against lefty bats, as he gives up a 39.5% Hard-rate, which could lead to an early exit from Eovaldi. Mauer has been very consistent against RHP’s, and even though he may not bring a lot of power to the table, he still has a .361 wOBA and 127 wRC+.
Mike Napoli, 1B: $4,400 – Definitely the chalk/cash-game play against Carlos Rodon. Rodon has this opinion in the baseball world that he is a solid pitcher, and while this may be true against lefties, it is most certainly not true against right-handed batters. Rodon owns a 4.73 xFIP, a 10% BB-rate, and a .360 wOBA allowed to righties, to go along with his 14.4% HR/FB-rate. Not only has Napoli done very well against Southpaws in 2016 thus far, he also has a career 14.4% BB-rate, a .247 ISO, a .390 wOBA and a 144 wRC+ against them. He should definitely be the chalk play at 1B today.
Neil Walker, 2B: $3,400 – Walker is a switch-hitter, and he should bat from the left side of the plate, and I’m hoping he does, as he’ll get the best matchup against Julio Tehran, who gives up a 5.47 xFIP, 16% K-rate, a 11.4% BB-rate, and a .332 wOBA allowed to lefties. The price is right for Walker, who against RHP’s, has a .798 OPS, .182 ISO, .350 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. Batting at the 4-spot should help him, as he’ll see runners on base with perfect opportunities to drive them home.
Freddy Galvis, SS: $2,700 – He’s at a really nice spot, and especially with the pricing, he’s almost as much as a must-play as you can get. Philly lefties draw a great matchup against Archie Bradley, who is a perfect candidate to get blown up. With an incredible 21.20% HR/FB-rate, combined with a 4.35 xFIP and .400 wOBA allowed to lefties, things might get out of control quickly. Galvis won’t be in a spot to capitalize with RBI’s, which is unfortunate, but he’s done really well in getting on base (high wOBA), and for a sub-$3k price, I’ll take it in a plus matchup.
Zack Cozart, SS: $3,500 – For those who want to pay up from Galvis, Cozart is a fine option going against the weak Mike Fiers. Fiers has not done very well against righties thus far in 2016, with a 4.53 xFIP, a .363 wOBA and an incredible 40.6% Hard-rate. Meanwhile, Cozart owns a .186 ISO, .327 wOBA and a 102 wRC+.
Jhonny Peralta, 3B: $3,900 – Peralta is in a really nice position today against Martin Perez, as Perez has just been downright awful against righties so far this year. He owns a 4.88 xFIP, 11.00% K-rate, a .330 wOBA and gives up a 35.4% Hard-rate. Good thing for Peralta, who last year (too small of a sample size against LHP’s this year) had a .201 ISO, a .439 SLG, and a 100 wRC+. He should be in a favorable spot for RBI’s.
Curtis Granderson, OF: $4,300 – Granderson and the rest of the Mets lefty bats draw a favorable matchup today against Julio Tehran. Tehran doesn’t have the worst (or in our case, the best) HR/FB-rate, but he still has somewhat of a chance to be blown up with a 13.50 HR/FB%. But the main reason why I like Granderson is how bad Tehran is against lefty bats, with a 5.47 xFIP, 16% K-rate, a 11.4% BB-rate, and a .332 wOBA allowed to lefties. Granderson has done very well against RHP’s in 2016 to the tune of a 12.0% BB-rate, a .256 ISO, a .355 wOBA and a 128 wRC+. If you feel his price is fair enough, I would pull the trigger.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,300 – Another great Mets lefty against Julio Tehran that we can use. Like I mentioned above with Granderson and Neil Walker, Tehran has a slight chance to be blown up with a 13.50% HR/FB-rate, and gives up a 5.47 xFIP, 16% K-rate, a 11.4% BB-rate, and a .332 wOBA allowed to lefties. Through 180 Plate Appearances thus far in the season, Conforto has been mashing RHP’s to the tune of a 10.0% BB-rate, a .283 ISO, a .376 wOBA and a 142 wRC+. Batting in the 5-spot, he’s in prime positioning to rack up the RBI’s.
Jimmy Paredes, OF: $2,900 – Like I mentioned above with Freddy Galvis, Philly lefties draw a great matchup against Archie Bradley, who is a perfect candidate to get blown up, combined with a 4.35 xFIP and .400 wOBA allowed to lefties, things might get out of control quickly. Paredes has done very well against RHP’s throughout his career, and especially in 2016 thus far, he has a .237 ISO, with a .308 wOBA. Batting in the 5-spot, he’s in a great position to do some damage against Bradley with men on base.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
A lot can happen between 12am EST and tomorrow afternoon, but looking at the weather as of now, the only game that is a little bit of an issue is the Rangers-Cardinals game, but the highest chance of precipitation is at 15%. And that’s the only game with any issue, nothing is on the radar as of now, but a lot could happen, so I would monitor it, even if you can use the late-swap.
Doing Lines in Vegas
Like I mentioned at the top, David Price is the highest-favorited SP on the docket with a moneyline at -200, followed by Jacob deGrom, and then Carlos Carrasco. Some few games have a 9 total O/U, being in the Philadelphia-Arizona game, Baltimore-Toronto, and Seattle-Boston game. There are a few other spots I would take many offensive threats from, and those being from the Mets, Phillies, and Indians.
You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @ohuhave12
