I remember back to the heydays of the public service announcement that would grace the network telecasts of things like baseball games. (Sidenote: Apparently I also remember back to the days when folks would use the word heydey….and folks.)
One such PSA was on peer pressure and it would feature a couple of kids: One doing something they shouldn’t be doing and the other hesitating on whether to do the same or stand strong. Inevitably, the ne’er do well of the duo would say something influential like “Come on, do it.” and “Go ahead, try it, everybody’s doing it.”
Some people in the DFS realm might tell you not to roster two starting pitchers together in the same game. The thinking is that you’ll limit yourself in the all-important win points from the SP if both pitchers are in the same game. After all, only one may win.
But in DraftKings, that win isn’t always the carrot you need to chase when it comes to starting pitchers. A nice cash game score in DK would be around 120-130. A win is four points, which isn’t insignificant, but it’s a mere pittance compared to the overall number. On another site, you might see a win being worth four points, too, but the point total to cash will be around 40. So while a win is worth almost 10 percent of the cash line for that site, a win is worth around .03% on DraftKings. This frees you up to take on more risks with pitchers that may not win, but are in good positions to score some value for you.
One such situation is occurring tonight in Pittsburgh, where the Cincinnati Reds and the hometown Pirates are sharing a Vegas line of 6.5, with Gerrit Cole established as a significant favorite (-190). In situations like this, on a weak SP slate as it is tonight, you may want to tackle both sides of the 6.5 line.
The Pirates are 22nd against RHP this season and 24th overall over the last 14 days, both with over a 20% K rate. Mike Leake isn’t awesome, but he’s solid, especially on this slate, rocking a 3.20 SIERA, 3.1 K/BB ratio and a 54% groundball rate over the last 30 days.
Sure, Cole looks great and is worth being rostered at home with his nine Ks/9 IP, great control, a high groundball rate of his own and a 3.03 SIERA over the last five starts. But why not roster both? PNC park has been playing bottom 10 in runs scored so far this season. Plus one more so-so interesting stat in this matchup of SP: Leake has averaged 25 batters faced over his last five starts while Cole has 26.
Everybody’s doing it.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Miguel Montero, C: $3,600 – Montero has continued his hitting assault and should be in the lineup tonight against Mike Bolsinger of the Dodgers. Montero has been way above average over the last 30 games in expected power and has been a fixture in the middle of that interesting Cubs lineup.
Ben Paulsen, 1B: $3,400 – Paulsen’s power is there and while his ground ball rate has been creeping up while his fly ball rate has slipped, his price at home in Coors against a very weak RHP right now makes him a terrific play.
Lucas Duda, 1B: $4,400 – But in case you don’t want too fresh meat to roster, Lucas Duda has posted a 13% walk rate and 55% fly ball rate over his last 30 days. When you have elite power like Duda has, getting the ball in the air that much is a ticket to home runs.
Jeff Baker, 2B/1B: $2,700 – Jeff Baker, the lefty raker. Jeff continues to be low priced at a nice position at second base. Baker doesn’t hit enough fly balls for me (21% for the year, 31% over the last month), but at his price and a 900+ OPS against LHP, I’ll sign him up, especially at home.
Ruben Tejada, SS/3B: $2,700 – Tejada let me down on Tuesday upon his return to the lineup, but he’s been sneaky power for over a month and you have to have a cornerback’s mentality to getting burned.
Joey Gallo, 3B: $3,700 – Gallo batted second and played against RHP even with Adrian Beltre back. Gallo’s power metrics have been elite (just below Albert Pujols for the month) and with the confidence they have in him, Gallo can relax, not press and be a solid play here below 4K.
Curtis Granderson, OF: $3,800 – The Grandy Man can! He’s been a top 50 power guy this season and he came through Tuesday with a dinger. With Shelby Miller returning to his 2014 form (4.30 SIERA over last six starts), Granderson’s favorable L/R splits put him in a good spot again at the top of the Mets order.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $5,200 – So with Leake, Tejada and Baker, surely you have all the monies to roster Stanton, and you should. Stanton against a LHP at home is a magic combination. Last season, Stanton had a .461 wOBA, .345 ISO, a 1090 OPS and a 198 wRC+. That’s good. This season those numbers are a .553 wOBA, .667 ISO, a 1423 OPS and a 259 wRC+. That’s unconscious. Roster-him-right-now unconscious.
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,300 – Joc is a sneaky play as the fire has died down on his power surge in Coors a while back, but the underlying metrics tell us he’s still a very top play in the power category and he is still batting near the top of that Dodger lineup.
David Peralta, OF: $4,300 – Peralta hits well. He’s a little ground ball happy, but the power is significant, scoring over 50% better than average over his last 30 days. With Hale going for the Rockies and the Vegas number sure to be matching Tuesday’s 11 run open, Peralta, who batted second Tuesday, is a tremendous play.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
After the storms blew through the northeast Tuesday night, the only potential weather drama is in Chicago, where the Cubs will host the Dodgers. Thunderstorms are forecast to come through after the game, but showers are forecast during the game, meaning possible delay or postponement. Check the weather before game time to know for sure.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The line has not posted yet, but the epic tilt between David Hale and Allen Webster in Coors Field will likely yield an 11 line. We’ve already discussed the 6.5 line between the Reds and the hosting Pirates and that Gerrit Cole has the biggest number in his favor at -190.
