Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunday!
Well, for the first time this year that I’ve covered Sundays, today we have a (somewhat) small 9-game Main Slate on our hands, but with the lack on 12+ games comes with so many options to select and draft our teams from. Maybe even too much offense today. There are so many bad pitchers, and so many great plays, it really sucked that I had to choose which made the cut into this article, especially because there are multiple good plays, yet they’re at similar price points, so I had to choose the better play, unless there was a difference in format to play them, like a distinct GPP play to a distinct cash-game play. Specifically, I found a lot of great offense from the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, and Brewers, all who are in circumstances where Vegas has them in great high-scoring games, most notably coming from the Orioles-Indians game, where Vegas has them currently sitting at a 9 O/U. I’m excited to get into it today, and with some great offense coming all throughout yesterday, let’s see if he can get some of that success today. Let’s go!
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John Lackey, SP: $11,400 – Lackey should be your #1 SP for today. Out of all of the high-priced options for today (Sale, Price, Lackey and Strasburg), he’s the least-expensive, which is something I like about him, and while he’s also the safest play of the 4, he could also very well outscore everyone today against the Phillies, also giving us a Tourney option. Just like every other Chicago Cubbie’s SP this year, he’ll be pitching behind one of the best offenses in baseball. He has some good stuff, with a 12.40% SwK, a 26% K-rate, and a 3.28 SIERA, with a low BB-rate. He’s also a -207 favorite according to Vegas.
David Price, SP: $11,900 – Here’s the deal with Price. He’s definitely turned it around since the original rough patch we saw just a couple weeks ago, but now he’s looking like his old self, and let’s see how it continues today at the Rogers Centre. Because of the power of the Toronto bats, I would only use him in Tournaments (should be the lowest-owned among the high-priced guys) , however I have to stress that he’s a fine pitching option nonetheless, with really good strikeout stuff (13.70% SwK); and he’s fantastic against righties, something Toronto has a ton of. Again, proceed with the “high risk/high reward” for today.
Chris Tillman, SP: $8,900 – Tillman is a good SP2, and should be considered nothing more, as if he played a tougher team than he is today, I wouldn’t consider him, but for today, he’s in the right place at the right time. He’s a -119 favorite against the Cleveland Indians, who despite putting up 10+ runs yesterday, they have not been performing at a high level like a team should, in theory. His 3.97 SIERA is not as low as we would like it, but we have to take in consideration his 25% K-rate, and his ability to force ground-balls at a pretty average rate. The biggest thing going for him is that he doesn’t have blowup potential noted by his fantastic 5.10% HR/FB-rate, so he’s perfect in cash games for us to pair with Lackey.
Michael Wacha, SP: $5,300 – Before you storm the comment section, claiming that I am a fool if I would want any part of Wacha, especially when he’s facing the Nationals, here me out. Here’s why we like Wacha: He’s very inexpensive, and he’s not a $5.3k pitcher in real life. There are many other SP options I would want to attack with opposing forces that are expensive than Wacha at such a cheap price point. Also, from the other pitchers I’ve seen priced around and lower than Wacha, his numbers are not of those of a sub-$6k SP. Wacha has a 20% K-rate, a low BB-rate, and has low risk to be blown up. He may give up a few runs (we don’t need a Kershaw performance), but at $5.3k I’ll take a decent outing combined with a great one from Lackey/Price, and also giving us the freedom to get the bats we want.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4,000 – You’ll see a theme with the Milwaukee Brewers in this article, as they draw a fantastic matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who is just bad, to be blunt. Off the top of the bat, his 5.05 SIERA should draw some concerns, and combined with his low 16.20% K-rate, and his high 15.50% HR/FB-rate. With a shallow and weak position today, Lucroy should bring some stability, especially if he bats at the 4 spot and has the platoon advantage.
David Oritz, 1B: $5,400 – While the Large Father has seemed to crush everything in his path (much to the delight of yours truly), is it worth it paying that much for him? Yes. He draws a great matchup today against R.A. Dickey. We all should know at this point that when he can lose control over his knuckler, things can go down hill really quickly, and Dickey has struggled this year against lefties to the tune of a 4.78 xFIP, 11.0% BB-rate, and a .367 wOBA allowed. Big Papi has just demolished RHP’s this year with a 14.40% BB-rate, 11.80% K-rate, a .408 ISO, a .483 wOBA and an incredible 212 wRC+.
Ryan Rua, 1B/OF: $3,200 – With a 9 O/U that Vegas has on this game, there’s plenty of offense to be have today in the Rangers-Pirates game. Francisco Liriano has not done very well against righties this season, with a 4.39 xFIP, a 13.30% BB-rate, and a .347 wOBA allowed. Rua has done very well against Southpaws so far this year, and if he can keep the strikeouts low (which anyone can against Liriano), it should be noted that he gets on base at a very extreme level with a .471 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.
Travis Shaw, 1B/3B: $3,500 – Like I mentioned above with David Oritz, Boston lefties draw a great matchup against R.A. Dickey, as he has struggled this year against lefties to the tune of a 4.78 xFIP, 11.0% BB-rate, and a .367 wOBA allowed. Shaw has done really well against RHP’s with a .224 ISO, a .410 wOBA, and a 161 wRC+ so far in 2016.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $4,700 – In a position that lacks depth, Schoop should be on all of our radars today in a great matchup against Mike Clevinger, in a game with a Vegas Total of 9. Clevinger is a very bad pitcher against righties, with a 6.65 xFIP, 9.50% K-rate, and a .531 wOBA allowed, to go along with his poor peripherals. Schoop has dominated RHP’s so far in 2016 to the tune of a .214 ISO, a .331 wOBA, and a 107 wRC+.
Hernan Perez, 3B: $2,700 – I was also going to write about Chase Headley at this spot, but like I mentioned in the intro of this article, he brings the same upside and risk as Perez, at a similar price point, but Perez being in the better situation, only slightly. Like I mentioned with Lucroy above, he draws a fantastic matchup against Brandon Finnegan, with his 5.05 SIERA should draw some concerns, and combined with his low 16.20% K-rate, and his high 15.50% HR/FB-rate being even more concerning. Perez has dominated Southpaws thus far in ’16 to the tune of a low K-rate, a .242 ISO, a .328 wOBA and a 100 wRC+. At this price point, we should be over the moon.
Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $5,500 – Like I mentioned above with Schoop, Baltimore draws a great matchup against Mike Clevinger, in a game with a 9 O/U. Clevinger is a very bad pitcher against righties, with a 6.65 xFIP, 9.50% K-rate, and a .531 wOBA allowed, to go along with his poor peripherals. Not only has Machado been on fire the entire the entire season, he has absolutely destroyed RHP’s with a .336 ISO (Whoa.), a .439 wOBA and a 183 wRC+. C’etait incroyable, to all of my French-speakin’ homies out there. Give it up for the French-speaking homies.
Jonathan Villar, SS: $4,400 – Oh boy, another Brewer. Like I mentioned above with Lucroy and the rest of the Brewers, they draw a fantastic matchup against Brandon Finnegan as he owns a 5.05 SIERA, which should draw some concerns, and combined with his low 16.20% K-rate, and his high 15.50% HR/FB-rate. Villar has done very well against LHP’s thus far in ’16 to the tune of a 17.70% BB-rate, a .224 ISO, a .457 wOBA and a 186 wRC+
Jackie Bradley, OF: $3,800 – Like I mentioned with Ortiz and Shaw above, the Red Sox draw a great matchup against R.A. Dickey and Co. today, as Dickey has struggled this year against lefties to the tune of a 4.78 xFIP, 11.0% BB-rate, and a .367 wOBA allowed. JBJ has dominated RHP’s in 2016 with a .269 ISO, .414 wOBA, and a 164 wRC+
Carlos Beltran, OF: $3,900 – Beltran is in a very good spot for today, as he draws a matchup against Jake Odorizzi and the Rays. Odorizzi has not done very hot over his last few starts, and is particularly bad against righties so far in ’16 with a 4.83 xFIP, and a .340 wOBA allowed. Meanwhile, Beltran has crushed RHP’s this year so far with a .307 ISO (Whoa.), a .366 wOBA and a 134 wRC+.
Ryan Braun, OF: $5,200 – Finally, we have Mr. Braun. Like I mentioned above with Villar, we saw a theme with the Milwaukee Brewers in this article, as they draw a fantastic matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who is just bad, to be blunt. Off the top of the bat, his 5.05 SIERA should draw some concerns, and combined with his low 16.20% K-rate, and his high 15.50% HR/FB-rate shows that he could very well be blown up, also with the fact that he is especially weak against righties. Braun has mashed LHP’s so far in 2016 with a .286 ISO, .460 wOBA, and a 188 wRC+.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains-
Not many issues here, but there a some minor ones. First off in the Indians-Orioles game, it doesn’t seem to be raining up until or during first pitch (as of 2:23 AM EST), but there are 15% and then 34% chances of rain at 2pm and 3pm, and then it stays at or around 30% chance. Shouldn’t be a big deal, but definitely worth monitoring. Finally, the other issue is in the only other 9 O/U game (naturally), in the Rangers-Pirates game. Rain should pour down way after the game is under way, my guess would be in the later innings- 7th, 8th and 9th, but it shouldn’t be too bad to handle, as it might not rain at all.
Doing Lines In Vegas-
Like I mentioned at the beginning of the article, the teams I am looking towards for my offense are the: Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, and Brewers, as all have a O/U no less than an 8 runs total. I already like him, but it should be noticed that of all of the 4 high-priced SP’s on the docket, John Lackey is the most favorited with a ML of a -207. It’s a pretty boring day in Vegas apart from those two topics I briefly mentioned.
Thanks for sticking around! Hopefully we’ll catch up at the end of the day, at the top of the Leaderboards. Good luck!
All right, you guys, I don’t know what you’re doing still reading this. It’s 2:30 AM, and I’m super dooper tired. Well, maybe it won’t be 2:30 AM tomorrow when the article comes out. Err… today. Wait, but isn’t it already Sunday? I have no clue.
Go read a book.
You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @ohuhave12
