Have you ever gone out to dinner and felt completely overwhelmed by the number of choices on the menu? You find yourself completely unable to make a decision. Do I go with the fajitias, the shrimp Mozambique, the salmon burger or the country fried steak? Ugggh I hate making choices… Can I just get a quarter order of each? Ohh you don’t do that, well then I’ll just have the caesar salad. Yes I’m often prone to panicking when presented with a slew of desirable choices. I once passed out in the process of choosing a hooker at the Bunny Ranch in Nevada while on a substantial peyote binge. This is all niether here nor there but it’s the last time I was as overwhelemed with choices as I am today. DraftKings and today’s pitching ledger is chock full of options. Before we get into the ones that I do like, and there are quite a few, let’s discuss one I don’t. That would be none other than the highest priced option on today’s board Garrett Richards. I get it, his high strikeout totals play well in the DK format and he’s been good over his past four starts. Problem is he faces a Baltimore offense that ranks third in wOBA against righties. Richards has also been extremely lucky thus far with a BABIP of .213 and a BB/9 of 4.55. The long and the short, regression is coming, and I’d avoid spending the money on Richards. Truthfully I’m left a bit puzzled by his price. What do the good folks at DraftKings know that I don’t?
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Chris Archer, SP: $8,000 – After back to back rough starts against the Rangers and Orioles, Archer got back on track Tuesday against the Yankees punching out 8, walking 1, and allowing two runs over 7 frames. Today he faces the Twin City Twinkies at Target Field. The Twins are owners of the 5th lowest wOBA vs. RHP, and the third highest K rate behind only the Cubs and Astros. The best part, Archer is only the 9th highest priced option on the pitching ledger at $8,000. Quite a deal if you ask me.
Jake Arrieta, SP: $9,500 – First things first before we go any further stop what you’re doing, go to the DraftKings page and click on Arrieta’s name. Now try and not laugh out loud at his profile picture. It’s like the seductive look of a serial killer. Distractions aside Jake faces a Pirates lineup he already put up a 29.4 point performance against back on April 20th (4 20 mannnnn). I could rattle off Arrieta’s high K/9, low HR/9, and general awesomeness but you should already be well aware. He’s a bit pricey at $9,500 but the results will justify it. I guarantee it! Hopefully my guarantees hold more weight than Alex Ovechkin’s. That’s a hockey joke. That’s the sport they play on ice.
Carlos Carrasco, SP: $8,100 – To say it’s been a season of highs and lows thus far for Carrasco would be an overstatement, or stating the obvious. Unless you’re oblivious. Then it’s neither obvious or an overstatement. Alliteration is fun! Today Carrasco looks to get back on the right track against a Rangers team that has struggled to hit righties ranking 27th in the majors in wOBA vs RHP, 28th in wRC+, and 27th in OPS. Carrasco is well priced at $8,100 and the ability and K potential (10.7 K/9) are still there.
Scott Kazmir, SP: $7,300 – There’s quite a few plays under $8,000 that I like today; Chris Heston, Alfredo Simon, and James Paxton to name a few, but my favorite is Mr. Kazmir velour. Ohhhh so smooth! The lefty faces off against the Chicago Southsiders today, a lineup that is just woeful vs southpaws. How bad is they Ralph? I’ll tell you! They’re so bad against lefties that they own the league’s worst wOBA, OPS, and wRC+ against the devil’s handed hurlers. Another thing to consider is Kazmir is at home, and he’s been cash money at the O.co thus far, putting up a .90 ERA and BAA of .145 in 3 starts. So trust your Uncle Ralph, and plop the Kaz into a couple of your tournament lineups.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $5,100 – Sure he’s crazy expensive, but have you been paying any attention the last few days? He’s on a bit of a hot streak with 4 big flys in 4 days. Including mammoth shots Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, Friday at home, and one more for good measure yesterday. I always look to get hot bats into my lineup. After all baseball is a game of hot streaks and matchups. He’s on a hot streak, and for the matchup…he has two career homers in 9 plate appearances vs Shelby Miller.
Andre Ethier, OF: $4,000 – Hi my name is Ralph and I’m addicted to stacking against Kyle Kendrick…Hi Ralph!! Hey everyone, here’s where my problem all began. It started in Philly and now K2 is in Colorado and legal and I just can’t stop. Kendrick faces the Dodgers today a team that mashes righties to the tune of a .371 wOBA. Yeah I said 3…7…1. That’s bananas, it’s so good that it’s .34 points higher than the second best team against RHP the Tigers. Ethier is always in the lineup (fingers crossed) against RHP, and is hitting them to the tune of .324/5/11 so far in 2015. $4,000 isn’t much to get in on some of that Blue Blood love. If you’re feeling like dropping some major GUAP! Spend the $5,400 on Adrian Gonzalez.
Gerardo Parra, OF $3,100 – Over the last week Parra is hitting .615 with 6 runs, 2 homers, 8 rbi’s, and a steal. He faces super-prospect and future ace Noah Syndergaard at home. At $3,100 he’s a solid punt play that’s swinging a hot bat against a rookie in his second big league start.
George Springer, OF $4,800 – The man is a walking slam and legs, and there’s no greater upside in DK’s format for a hitter. He also hits lefties as well as anyone in the Stros lineup. In fact, 3 of his 6 homers on the year are against southpaws. Hey he’s even above the Mendoza line against them!
Stephen Vogt, C/1B $3,600 – Vogt’s seemingly always below $4,000 and it feels like stealing. There’s a righty on the mound in Jeff Samardzija, so no platoon issues, and he’s leading the AL in batting average at .337. A price of $3,600 is just the right cost for your catcher too. Do you want me to sell you on him some more? Well, he’s a card-carrying member of mensa, can solve a rubix cube in under 4 minutes, and once delivered a baby on the shoulder of the highway while playing for the Rays double A affiliate the Montgomery Biscuits. He’s amazing!! Yes I made those last three things up, you’re so gullible.
Omar Infante, 2B: $3,800 – Here’s a BvP play for you; 7/18 lifetime off Chris Capuano with two homers. He’s also coming off back to back multi-hit games, even if it’s at the bottom of the Royals lineup.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
UGGHHH!!! Lot’s of rain in the forecast for today’s games, but right now nothing over 60%. As it stands The Giants vs. Reds game in Cincy is between 52%-42% chance of rain, The Brewers at Mets is hovering around 20%, The Angels at O’s is looking at a 50% chance of rain drops, as are the Diamondbacks @ the Phillies, the Rays @ the Twins, Pirates @ Cubs, Indians @ Rangers, and Tigers @ Cardinals. That’s 8 freaking games! What’s up mother nature??
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas likes the Dodgers and I can’t blame them, they are heavy favorites at -200. Also like the over in that game with the aforementioned Kyle Kendrick on the mound for the Rocks.
The sharks agree with yours truly on my Kazmir love listing the A’s as favorites at -129, they list the under/over at 7 1/2. I’ll take the under.
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