So yes, this is an overrated post but since I’m not Grey and Grey ain’t me, you don’t see the word ‘Schmohawk’ in the title.  If I had, it would’ve been seen as a weak and watered down version of a Schmohawk piece.  Mayhap you would’ve gone so far as to say it was a ‘Faux hawk’ which is really the worst thing ever.  A faux hawk says to me you want to look like an edgy bad boy but you also listen to Nick Jonas which is just another way of saying ‘My parents are well off and I spend a lot of time at the mall complaining about them’.  First off, not getting the car for the weekend because you got a ‘C’ in Math isn’t ‘abusive’ and secondly, that kid who dumped his orange julius on you after walking out of Hot Topic?  Yeah, that would’ve been me from 20 years ago.  Go full hawk or no hawk, you poser!  But enough about my goth teen years, we’re here to talk about Doug Fister and so we shall.  Let’s see what kind of players put up similar 2014 lines who are going cheaper than Doug for 2015 Fantasy Baseball Drafts…

On the surface, Doug Fister had what many would call a stellar year for fantasy purposes.  Among qualifying starters, he finished the year 6th best in ERA at 2.41, tied for tenth best WHIP at 1.08, and tied for 10th in wins with 16.  Kinda nice when a pitcher finishes top ten in three of the four categories that starting pitchers are owned for but that’s where the bloom on the rose begins to wilt.  But hey, let’s take this from a different approach.  Let’s say you, your friends, and your wife love a good Fister on draft day (tee hee).  Considering his consensus rank right now of SP37 and pick number 150, it’s obvious you’re not over spending in the classic sense especially when you consider he finished 21st for starting pitchers on the Razzball Player Rater in 2014.  But let’s go down the path of matching skill sets and players who can comp to Doug’s ability to see why even in round 12 you’re overpaying.

Now that we’re on to the underlying skills that pay the fantasy bills, let’s talk about a skill set that’s big for pitchers in general: GB%.  Fister finished with a 48.9% ground ball rate in 2014.  That number isn’t elite (26th best among qualifying starters) but it’s also in good company as Corey Kluber finished with a 48% rate himself.  So let’s make 48% or greater ground ball rate the starting cutoff point for evaluation.  That trims our comp pool down to 29.  Next, let’s make sure all of our ERAs are sub-4 cuz that’s just how we do.  Not a huge difference as we only lowered the bar to 23.  Next, let’s look at Fister’s ability to not walk many batters and say the BB/9 has to be less than 2 per.  Ooooh, now we’re down to 10…we’re getting somewhere!  But finally, let’s realize the major flaw in Fister’s game is the K/9 and remove anyone with a K/9 over 6 per.  Perfect!  We now have just four players to evaluate.  Instead of naming them, let’s just bask in the glory of their mediocrity in table format and their not so correlative rankings, shall we?

Pitcher Rank Overall Rank Razzball Player Rater 2014 W K/9 BB/9 BABIP LOB% GB% ERA FIP xFIP
SP37 150 SP21 16 5.38 1.32 0.262 83.10% 48.90% 2.41 3.93 3.85
SP62 225 SP51 15 5.67 1.8 0.298 72.40% 49.00% 3.43 3.67 3.68
SP76 267 SP52 12 5.34 1.59 0.304 79.30% 53.80% 2.65 3.58 3.57
SP98 345 SP90 9 5.7 1.62 0.3 70.30% 53.10% 3.57 3.54 3.57

First off, I had to remove some stats like GS, HR/FB%, Ls, etc.  Trust me, I wanted to leave them on there, but internet pages only go so wide before you need two monitors to view it all.  Secondly, if you’ve actually been reading you already know who Fister is so if this were a test, you already have 25% correct.  Congrats!  If not, well you failed on so many levels it’s not worth talking about so let’s just get our comp on.  For the fantasy novice, let’s make clear three numbers that hugely identify a pitcher being lucky.  Firstly, BABIP.  League average luck in this stat would put you at or around .300.  Cool, that’s pretty much exactly what the other three pitchers are but Fister?  His career BABIP is .292 but had an extremely low .262 in 2014.  That’s what we like to call in fantasy circles ‘an outlier’.  Next up, let’s look at that LOB%.  Neutral luck should net you around 70%.  Fister actually led all qualifying starters in 2014 with his 83.1% and for his career sits at 73.7%.  Let’s put that down as outlier numero deuce.  And finally, xFIP.  There is no real league average here that matters.  That xFIP just tells you what most likely would’ve been their ERA given neutral luck.  Of the four pitchers listed, Fister has the largest discrepancy between ERA and xFIP and also has the highest xFIP of the group.  All in all, that ERA could’ve been around 3.50 given neutral luck which would’ve affected wins but also his overall performance in your eyes as an owner.  So all things considered, on draft day you could get a similar player nearly 100 to 200 picks later in your draft.  Oh, you wanna know who these strangers are?  Well, SP62 is Rick Porcello, SP76 is Henderson Alvarez, and SP98 is Tim Hudson and more importantly, you now know how to get a Fister from a stranger.  See how the title and the end match up?  It’s like I planned it that way!  Oh and if it isn’t clear, if you’re drafting Doug, you’re doing it wrong.  Peace!

 
  1. Cram It says:
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    I read this.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      pics or it didn’t happen

      • Cram It says:
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        @Sky:
        ( . ) ( . )
        Fister

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          *shows 5318008 upside down on a calculator*

          • Cram It says:
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            @Sky: That’s the extend of my picture embedding.

            You happy with your NFBC team? I’m curious how I’m going to manage my SP/RP ratio.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              I have a post about it in the hopper but I’m short I love my pitching but my hitting depth concerns me. Every round I’d just miss my guy

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Is that JFOH after seeing Trevor Plouffes wife?

                • Nico says:
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                  @Cram It: When the draft finished on Saturday, I felt like my life could begin again.

                  • Cram It says:
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                    @Nico: There was definitely a period of mourning there. Waking up Saturday morning, checking my phone to see if I’m on the clock. Researching spring training news for players I already owned. I felt there was SOMETHING I should be doing. Something unfulfilled. But you’re right, that phase has passed, and it’s on to my normal life…preparing for my last draft.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Funny, my NFBC draft felt like being on ‘shrooms. It was really fun for a while. Then I started wondering when it would be over and then I started getting paranoid it would never end and almost called 911.

  2. The Great Knoche says:
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    Yeah, never liked Fistering. Thoughts on Latos after getting shelled today? (Yes I know it’s only spring training, but its was the Mets). Grey has him at 21 , and I just can’t see him as a top 40 guy even in that park.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      And the Mets might actually have a reasonable offense this year so that’s not a detrimental statement. He’s going cheap enough, I’m still willing to take a flier if I need pitching and he’s there but I’m not targeting him in particular

    • papasmurf says:
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      @The Great Knoche: What’s worse, being latos intolerant or getting a fister?

      One is things going out, the other is in…

  3. Connor says:
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    I have a draft in 87 minutes! This is my first season of fantasy baseball so I’m looking for some advice. My league is 12 team roto but there are additional categories of hits and quality starts. Do I need to alter my draft strategy at all from a normal 5×5 roto? Thanks anyone who helps me.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      It shouldn’t change your draft strategy

      • Connor says:
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        @Sky: Thanks. I should have probably mentioned I enjoyed your article. My team’s name is also Fister? I Barely Know Her but I think I find that funnier than anyone else.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ha, no worries, glad you enjoyed…good luck tonight!

  4. Zeus says:
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    Never understood the appeal of Fisting or Fister. If you can fit your whole hand in, the rest would be like throwing a hot dog down a hall way.

    As for Fister he’s a decent pitcher but with all that pitch to contact luck plays a big part in his results.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, and the GB rates keep luck a bit more on your side but the reality is if you’re not striking out at least 7+ per 9, you’re not much for fantasy unless every game is a CG. Thanks for reading.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @Zeus: yeah, but you’d last forever and quickly make a lot of friends amongst her girlfriends.

  5. royce! says:
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    I don’t know, Sky…I think you failed to assess the value Fister adds to potential team names. “Porcello Her in the Posey” just doesn’t have the same ring.

    • royce! says:
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      @royce!: Oops, it should actually be worse: “Porcello in the Posey”

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I don’t know ‘Farquhar Wright In The Posey’ is prettay, prettay good

        • royce! says:
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          @Sky: It is! Unfortunately, I doubt that any of us would own Posey, so it’s all academic…

        • Regan says:
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          @Sky: or my team name last year…Don’t Fister Farquar

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            I think the key thing to take away here is we both went deeper than most

            • bigbear says:
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              @Sky: Yup, some of us are barely Quackenbush…

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                hehe

  6. pickleball says:
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    in a roto h2h league, are hitters or pitchers valued more than one another? it’s basically a roto league just with weekly matchups…

    that being said, i’m deciding between keeping a $25 hanley ramirez vs a $17 corey kluber…. i’m already keeping 5 hitters (rizzo/goldy/trout/harper/rendon) and dont know if i should keep a pitcher or not..

    thanks for the help. i’ll steer clear of fister

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Not so much about the hitter vs pitcher debate for me as it is Kluber is cheaply priced: Corey for me. And no prob!

  7. BG says:
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    Need keeper help.

    Wainright 2nd round, Madison Bum 3rd Round, or V-Mart 6th Round

    Already kept, Donaldson(15), Dee Gordon(16th), Hanley (5th), Nelson Cruz (8th)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Eh, prolly V-Mart. Not huge on the values there. Target pitching with an early pick

      • BG says:
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        @Sky:

        Thanks for the help!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          No worries!

  8. David Brys says:
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    Too many outfielders? 10 team league
    Travis D Arnaud – C
    Encarnacioin – 1B
    Wong – 2B
    Arenado – 3B
    Santana -SS
    Adam Jones – OF
    Justin Upton – OF
    Starling Marte – OF
    Util – Jason Heyward
    Util – jorge soler
    Bench – Wil myers
    Bench – Eric hosmer
    Bench – Gregory Polanco
    N/A – Addison Russel
    SP – Jon Lester
    SP – Mat Latos
    SP – Paxton
    SP – Matt Shoemaker
    SP – Drew Hutchinson
    RP – Drew Storen
    RP – Jansen
    RP – David Roberton
    DL – Kris Medlen
    Have 2 open spots should I add Duda, Avisail, Saunders, Cain , Gyorko, Arcia, Peavy, Burnett
    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Not too many; 10 team league, lots of talent available. Go Avisail, Duda

  9. jacque jones says:
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    14tm standard roto. Need 1sp to fill out rotation need to add K’s without killing ratios. My sp are stras, arrieta, Liriano, E.Santana, W. Peralta, Lohse.
    RP Allen, papel, rondon, smith, watson, herrera.

    Possible adds SP Peavey, Hudson Worley or take a flier on Greene or Nelson?(not a MIL fan, coincidence)

    Possible RP Adds Cingrani Quackenbush Strop Neil Ramirez, Parnell… I back loaded the RP for high K low ratio and sagnof but think I’m going to need another sp. First time in a league this big it’s slim pickings, what’s your move? Thanks for all you do I won 2/4 leagues last yr based on this site

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @jacque jones: If you need/want K’s, those first three aren’t gonna help you. I’d give Greene a go but I’m not a huge fan of him. Keep him on a short leash.

      If you go the RP route, I’d take Quakenbush. Could back yourself into some saves.

  10. Ante GALIC says:
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    Sky,

    Nice article, man! Makes me want to Fister less. Definitely am not targeting Fister.

    Have a question from my seasonal, H2H redraft points league. Roster 21 – 9 bats, 5 SP, 2 RP, 5 any bench. Lineup is as follows.

    YGomes, Abreu, Rendon, CDavis, DSantana, JUpton, AJones, CarGo (Rox), Goldschmidt
    Bench Encarnacion
    SP Cole, ‘Kuma, Fiers, Ross, Shoemaker, Paxton, Salazar, YVentura, ASanchez
    RP Robertson, Allen

    A. Wanted to bolster pitching by trading one of Goldschmidt, Abreu or Encarnacion for a front-liner SP. Which of these would you use and which group of four or five SP would you target? the league is super shallow and all primo SPs went within the first four rounds.

    B. Was offered Teheran for Encarnacion? Who comes out on top?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks Ante!

      A. You don’t need to so don’t.

      B. Terrible trade, don’t do it.

      You don’t need primo pitchers, especially in an H2H. You just need depth and you have that. Be ready to pounce on good arms that always come up from the FA pool. Pitching is the easiest place for you to make up for in the FA pool. You’re not finding any of those hitters you’re trying to trade there.

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Sky: Thanks, man!

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          No worries

  11. Kobayashi Maru says:
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    I went a little over board on pitchers in my 12 team draft: Kluber, Bumgarner, Wacha, Fister, Kazmir, Ventura, Quintana, and Duffy. We have a 5-8 GS limit per week.

    I was offered Andrus for Wacha, I have Segura at SS. Do the deal? I have pitching to spare, but I don’t know if the upgrade at SS is enough to justify shipping off my #3 starter.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Kobayashi Maru: Andrus isn’t an upgrade over Segura, hold.

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