Let’s start with what I said a few months ago, “This year in the minors Domonic Brown had a line of 65/20/68/.327/17 and .391/.589/.980. Let’s recap, whoa/wow/nice/yum-yum/don’t mind if I do and yowsers/that’s lovely/yowsersthat’slovely. To break that down for the people who skimmed the first two sentences, he has 20/20 potential with plate discipline. It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to: “I don’t think this glazed donut can get any better.” “How about we sprinkle bacon on it?” Drool. By my estimation (and Keith Law’s), he’s the number one prospect in the minors. (Desmond Jennings is a close 2nd in my book that was rejected by Simon & Schuster.)” And that’s me quoting me! First off, Jennings is now one, according to me, and Brown is two for 2011. Don’t ask me how it changed. It just did, okay? Well, actually, I’ll explain how it changed. Preemptive, you’re welcome. Speed translates easier than power. Power, on youngsters, doesn’t always immediately appear. Beyond 2011, I could see Brown leapfrogging Jennings to have more value in fantasy. Shoot, he can have more value in 2011, but he’s not safer. So what can we expect for Domonic Brown in 2011 fantasy baseball?
Once Jayson Werth’s out of Philly (and taking a probable fantasy hit) or Raul Ibanez is tossed blindfolded into the newly-constructed Citizens Flank Octagon, Brown’s the man to man a spot in the outfield. He’ll probably slot somewhere in the lower half of the lineup and be given the rope to succeed or fail depending on how badly his fantasy owners need him to produce.* (*There’s no evidence that his fantasy owners hopes and dreams have anything to do with Brown’s potential success rate. In fact, some studies that don’t actually exist show that the more fantasy owners want something to happen the less likely it will.) Brown could be Krispie Young with a better average next year. More likely, he’ll look a lot like The Big FraGu with a better average. The upside for more is there, obviously. I’d put his line at 55/12/70/.290/14 if I were in a conservative mood. Absolutely ownable in mixed leagues, just maybe not as exciting as you might think. In keepers, he’s a must own or tums now, if you’re an anagrammatist or having indigestion.