Dinelson Lamet returned from Tommy John surgery last year better than Tommy John returned from his own surgery, and he invented the stupid surgery after a night out with the guys. Here’s a conversation with Bill Russell of the 1976 Dodgers, and Tommy John:

“Hey, are you the same Bill Russell that plays basketball?”
“Stop asking me that. You know I’m not.”
“I think I’m blind from Me Surgery.”
“You’re not blind and stop calling it ‘Me surgery.'”
“It’s Tommy John surgery and I’m Tommy John, so to me it’s Me Surgery, and you don’t know if it made me blind because it’s my surgery.”
“I know it didn’t make you blind because you drove us to this bar!”
“One day everyone will call it Tommy John surgery.”
“I hate you.”

And that’s how Bill Russell of the 1976 Dodgers began calling UCL reconstruction surgery, ‘Tommy John Is A Pain In The Ass surgery.’ So, what can we expect from Dinelson Lamet for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

After having Tommy John surgery mid-April of 2018, Dinelson Lamet returned on July 4th of this year (what’s that, under 14 months? Works for me!), and went 3-5/4.07/1.26/105 in 73 IP. That strikeout rate has me driving into the ocean with a hovercraft, puncturing the hovers and rubbing myself on passing dolphins. Yes, I could’ve just drove my car into the ocean, but I would’ve never got far enough out to prime dolphin territory, so dur to you. He had the third best K/9 for starters with 13. Only two starters better than him were Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale. Oh…*grabs onto a dolphin as it romantically swims me around the world*…kay. That was in his return from Tommy John surgery to say the unsaid that has already been said numerous times already. Are? You? Kidding? Yes, I brought out the rarely seen one word questions for emphasis. This was after he spent the first month of his return never going more than five innings in a start, and going only four innings in two starts. Usually command is the last thing to return for pitchers returning from TJ (not Tijuana). Well, in Dinelson Lamet’s last major league season, his BB/9 was 4.3. Last year, it was 3.7. Haha, I just fainted from love. His perfs (what the kids call them) in September were 14.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. I’m sorry, does sliced bread say to you, “You’re the greatest thing since me?” His 3.44 xFIP is TASTY pronounced like those videos that everyone’s aunt reposts on Facebook. He does have a problem with homers allowed, so I’m gonna lean on his still solid 3.91 FIP. Lamet does only have two pitches he relies on, so that’s a slight concern, but there’s a reason why he’s a sleeper and not the 1st pitcher off the board. In the last few years, Patrick Corbin, Luis Severino and Luis Castillo added an extra pitch to great success, to name a few random pitchers I thought of quickly (about 37 seconds). Not saying Dinelson Lamet will add another pitch, but, if he does, he will be a top ten starter this year. If he doesn’t, he will still be well worth your time at his current ADP. For 2020, I’ll give Dinelson Lamet projections of 10-11/3.86/1.22/219 in 168 IP with a chance for more.

 
  1. Cersy says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Great material as always! He’s someone I really want in drafts this year.

    I’m in a 12 team keeper league. Offensive cats are: runs, hits, BA, OPS, RBIs, sbs, k’s and pitching stats are: wins, ERA, WHIP, k’s and k:bb.

    I was offered Jack Flaherty for Machado. Think I should take that?

    Current keepers are: Betts, Rendon, Freeman, Springer, Machado, Laureano, Corbin and either Bauer or Darvish.

    I think Flaherty would round out my pitching nicely and in my opinion I have the offense to spare to deal Machado.

    What do you think?

    Thanks a lot,

    Cersy

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I’d want Flaherty

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      I agree with the Donkey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with DT

  2. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Thoughts on this trade offer I received:

    I trade Spencer Howard and Aaron Civale for Alec Bohm..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Meh, seems fair… prolly hold tbh

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        Hmm, I worry about Howard, as the Phillies seem to suck at developing young SP’s, VV and Pivetta come to mind and I’m not sold on Civale, but with that said is Bohm gonna stay at 3B and will he hit in the majors..hmmm

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          So do Hamels and Nola. Id hold.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah

            • Big Carl says:
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              10 team dynasty league, keep 20 … right now Lamet is my #21. Do you drop any of these guys back for Lamet?

              C-
              1B-Matt Olson-26
              2B-Jonathan Villar-28 (SS)
              3B-Vlad Guerrero Jr.-21
              SS-Francisco Lindor-26
              OF-Ronald Acuña-22
              OF-Ketel Marte-26 (2B, SS)
              OF-Starling Marte-31
              OF-Jorge Soler-28
              Ut-Josh Bell-27 (1B)
              Ut-Tim Anderson-26 (SS)
              Ut-Miguel Sano-26 (1B, 3B)

              SP-Justin Verlander-37
              SP-Blake Snell-26
              SP-Shane Bieber-25
              SP-Chris Paddack-24
              SP-Jack Flaherty-23
              SP-Lucas Giolito-25
              SP-Tyler Glasnow-25
              SP-Zac Gallen-24
              SP-Brandon Woodruff-27

              • Big Carl says:
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                (Next to their names are their ages they will be next season)

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Lamet over Gallen

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            True

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            Good point Knoche, thanks for commenting..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, it’s fair

  3. slimjim13 says:
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    Which side of a trade would you want

    Hoskins for Hader saves and holds league salary the same

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Meh, Hoskins if keeper

  4. Barry Bonds says:
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    Hader

  5. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    GREY!! Happy New Year partner

    Can you rank these guys in a 12tm AL only dynasty

    Cease $5
    Luzardo $5
    Urquidy $1
    German $5
    Sheffield $3
    Mckay $5

    I’m thinking about trading Voit $3 and Ohtani $29 for a package of them, trying to figure out which ones to ask for. (I have to trade ohtani as I have Yordan moving into my DH spot and don’t want to keep him as a pitcher).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year, TMDM!

      Voit and Ohtani for Luzardo and McKay?

      • The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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        Thanks man – I was heading that direction as well.

        Any chance McKay is limited like Ohtani?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Think McKay will be hugely limited but lots of talent there

  6. bigbear says:
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    Dope. Thanks Santa Grey!

    How do you get to the W/L projection? I know/agree they are subjective and virtually meaningless for our fake porpoises.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Think over team inning percentage and where a guy will be in rotation and how many starts

  7. Smitty says:
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    Great stuff Grey, Lamet poised to go off and pitches in a pitcher’s park. Big punchout numbers coming.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Love it, Smitty!

  8. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Ian Anderson for Ian Happ..thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Could burn you, he’s real close and might contribute this year

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        Prospects can be so frustrating, I am still trying to figure out proper value for them..

        Best to keep the three SP’s I have mentioned today..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Depends what you can get, but yeah it’s not easy to value prospects… also depends if you’re going for it now

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            I am always going for it. We have 60 man rosters, so all the guys I mentioned are on my bench, my team is really deep. I just have too much free time and am always looking to trade.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like that, you always gotta go for it!

  9. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    You think Derek Fisher ever lives up to those 2017 AAA numbers, or is he just a AAAA player?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      AAAA player

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        Bummer, cause last time I passed on a free agent with power and speed who I also didn’t think was going to live up to the hype was Austin Meadows.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, but he’s better

  10. Chucky says:
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    Keep forever, no contracts. Lamet over either Nola? Bieber? Gallen? ERod?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Over Gallen and EdRod, meh, maybe on Nola, not Bieber

  11. Silent Heat says:
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    Are you taking requests? Perhaps a Civale sleeper post? Happy New Year buddy!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll look at Civale about him maybe… Happy new year!

      • Silent Heat says:
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        Had an idea…don’t know if it is feasible but it would be cool to have a Luck number. Maybe like a scale from -20 to +20. That scales takes various statistics and rollsthem into a simple output that tells us if said player is getting lucky or unlucky or if he is likely to regress up or down. For instance, you pull up Chris Sale’s Luck Number in the middle of 2019 and it might be -16, so you instantly know he is pitching better than the 6×6 Fantasy stats are showing and he would be a great candidate to try and trade for (made up example, not sure if that was true). There are so many individual stats to look at to determine this it makes my head spin.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I like the idea in theory…. but have to figure out an equation in order to figure it out… like FIP+BABIP divides by ERA (not this, but something)

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