DFS: Skubal Starts Strong

I get it, he’s a chalk DFS pick with a $9,500 price tag on DraftKings. However, Tarik Skubal is poised to have another strong performance to start his season and will be claiming the Mets as his next victim. Skubal was a little wild in his first start against the White Sox, but still only surrendered 3 hits while striking out 6. The Mets are among the bottom 3 teams in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Don’t expect that to change against Tarik Skubal. He will be in control from start to finish and will still get his strikeouts. Fade Skubal at your own risk.

Well, the rain has ruined things and schedules have shifted, so as a late schedule-adjusted edit: Mitch Keller SP $8,200 – Keller has a lot to prove to the Pirates fan base after his big extension this offseason. He didn’t have the best start against the Marlins where he gave up 7 hits and 4 ER in 5.2 innings. Today is a new day as  he gets the Nationals and their less than stellar offense. Call it a get-right game for Mitch Keller today and he returns to ace level form, well, at least for this start.

We’ve got more DFS picks for Wednesday’s 6:05pm 5 game slate, let’s ride. 

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Spencer Torkelson, 1B: $4,900 – You might be sensing a theme here with this Tigers team. We have the opposite sentiment towards Jose Quintana that we do for Tarik Skubal, so given the chance to fade, we will. Torkelson is off to a slow start, and it feels like a stretch to spend $4,900 on him. He hits in the heart of the order and hits home runs at a higher rate against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. Let’s live a little.  

Cavan Biggio, 2B: $3,100 – We’ve spent a good chunk of money thus far. I think it’s time we find a value play with Cavan Biggio. He’ll be refreshed after getting Tuesday off, and we can hope for 5-7 points. He’s surpassed 5 points in 3 out of the 5 games he played this year (with 1 20-point performance on Opening Day and 2 zeroes).  There is potential for him to run into one and get another home run in this first week of the season, but today we’re just looking for points from a value pick. 

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $4,400 – When you’re hot, you’re hot. Through 5 games, Hayes is off to an insanely hot start, and we have no reason to believe that Trevor Williams will be slowing him down on Wednesday. Hayes is averaging 12.6 FPPG and has yet to hit a home run. He is producing without the long ball and will be an even bigger problem for opposing pitching when he starts clearing fences. The Pirates are taking advantage of their early season schedule, and the Nationals are no exception. Fully expecting Ke’Bryan to remain hot at the plate. 

Jeremy Pena, SS: $3,700 – Did Jeremy Pena finally snap out of his funk from 2023? It is a small sample size, but a .444 batting average and a 1.167 OPS will always turn heads. He hit his first home run in 77 games on Monday as well. It sure seems like he figured something out, and it feels like we’re getting in on the cheap before his price starts to skyrocket.

Daulton Varsho, OF: $3,600 – Daulton Varsho might be my downfall this season. I want to believe in his offensive abilities and I’m willing to ignore everything I see with my own eyes. Using our Hittertron tool, Varsho has the 20th best odds to hit a home run tomorrow. Stats can tell whatever story you want them to, and today I’ve decided that story be that Daulton Varsho is worth having in your DFS lineup. From a complete vibes standpoint, he’s due.

Seiya Suzuki, OF: $4,600 – We almost made it all the way through this without picking a player facing the Rockies. There are going to be some heavy winds in Cubs game, but Cal Quantrill is not all that great. Let’s grab a guy who will be right in the heart of the Cubs order. The $4,600 price tag is on the higher end for Suzuki based on his performance thus far. The Rockies bullpen is also not good, so this just feels like the right matchup to try to exploit. 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

So, it turns out there’s a lot more rain coming to New York. Is it enough to cause another rainout? Keep an eye on the weather here, because that clearly changes some of these picks. If it is a rainout, we’ll roll with Glasnow for our SP in place of Tarik Skubal and Vlad Jr at 1B to replace Torkelson. Wind might play a big factor in Rockies/Cubs, Pirates/Nationals, and Tigers/Mets (if played).

Doing Lines In Vegas

The Over/Under on the Astros and Blue Jays game is 9. We called out a few Blue Jays here and not many Astros, here’s hoping we picked the right players above to produce runs for the Jays. The over still feels good here, especially after the Blue Jays recent woes at the plate.  Mitch Keller on the mound for the Pirates against Trevor Williams of the Nationals. The line feels low at -155, so we’ll take the Pirates ace in this one.