11 of the top 25 starting pitchers (by SIERA) are starting today. Cole Ragans, Jack Flaherty, and Max Meyer are in this grouping, but due to some small sample issues, they still have an ERA over 4. This means that with 24 offenses to choose from, I am cancelling out 11 right away. Here is the list of offenses that remain, beginning with the worst wRC+ teams: COL 60, KC 86, SF 88, LAA 89, WAS 90, TEX, 91, MIA 93, MIN 101, SD 114, DET 115, SEA 118, ARI 124, LAD 130.
Unsurprisingly, those 5 teams with the highest wRC+ are also the teams with the highest implied Vegas totals tonight and good places to look to roster offensive players from. If you are playing in tournaments with small fields, rostering players from SD, DET, ARI, and LAD is a great strategy. If playing in tournaments with larger fields (more than 200 say) I would consider rostering some riskier stacks like MIA against Taj Bradley or TEX vs Lance McCullers. There will be plenty of decent one offs or groupings of two players that can be stacked together, but remember you will have the clearest path to first by stacking 5 people from the same team.
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MacKenzie Gore, SP: $8,600 – Why is Gore not priced higher? He has looked like an elite starter this year, and most importantly, BAL has been very bad vs. LHPs. Despite his short history as an elite starter, I am trusting the data and realizing that Gore can have big games (two games of 13Ks) in the right matchups.
Cole Ragans, SP: $9,300 – Ragans has a 40+% K rate to RHBs and has always been strong against them. STL will likely stack up 7 RHBs. If Ragans can get the lefties at the top of the order out (60% of the balls in play vs. lefties are on the ground) he will have a great start. I’m willing to bet on him and bank those Ks (good floor) that could produce a huge score if he gets a bit more lucky in the babip area (.375 babip vs career .296).
Dalton Rushing, C: $2,300 – Rushing is a top prospect who made a splash in his debut. He has 3 BBE at 96 EV and a max EV of 110 after one game. Don’t overcomplicate it at C. He will be highly owned.
Joc Pederson, 1B: $2,600 – Hitting is far more nuanced than being able to say, “Well, his EV is still good and he controls the strike zone (18:11 K:BB) so his luck should change”. Joc is hitting too many grounders and fly balls and those are tanking his babip. He has so few line drives this year. Luckily, batted ball data such as LD/GB/FB does not normalize till after plenty more ABs and Joc’s lack of line drives is likely small sample size noise. At least we can claim that as we roster him vs. a beatable righty in Lance McCullers. Joc may get pulled after a few ABs as HOU has plenty of lefty RPs, but if TEX manages to chase Lance, they have likely already put up some runs, and I would expect Joc to be a part of that.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $5,000 – I don’t like paying up at 2B, but Torres is showing elite control of the strike zone. His BB/K is nearly 1, putting him into elite company with the likes of Mookie Betts, Soto and Tucker. Torres also hits near the top of the order and has a sneaky good matchup today vs. Bowden Francis. I like him as a main part of the DET stack.
Max Muncy, 3B: $3,100 – You have to love 12 game slates because players like Max Muncy may actually come in at decent ownership. His slow start is over and everyone can start buying back in on Muncy and his HR + OBP surge.
Trey Sweeney, SS: $3,100 – How do you like this for an off the board play?! Sweeney is a great way to add to your DET stacks. He is a very capable bat in the back half of that lineup that doesn’t get removed for a pinch hitter.
Riley Greene, OF: $4,400 – Greene hits the ball hard. He has a bit of a K issue, but according to his rolling charts, those have been dropping lately as wRC+ and ISO increase. This looks like a nice point in the season to target Greene as his price is likely lower than it will be in a few weeks.
James Outman, OF: $2,100 – When someone strikes out about 50% of the time, the only cure is a pitcher with a 12% K rate. Outman is a cheap punt play, but one that has a good shot at getting a hold of one. It’s going to be easy to stack up the Dodgers with all of these cheap pieces to play alongside the studs.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It will likely be raining at some point tonight in Baltimore, but I am hoping that just reduces Gore’s ownership without much effect on his actual start tonight. Time will tell. The wind will blow out in KC at least initially.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Vegas line for KC is a bit high according to my calculations, but I wonder if the wind blowing out is indeed a factor. Pallante keeps the ball on the ground so I am a bit confused, but always interested in further examining these types of lines. I also think the SEA team total is a good one to bet the over on. SEA has a lot of power and even in SD they can hit the ball out. I think they deserve a bit more respect.
