Welcome to the start of the 2023 DFS baseball season here at Razzball. I’m new ‘round these parts, and you can call me Sheep. Much easier to remember than being the 50th Matt you know who does fantasy writing. I’ll be your guide on Thursdays, so it’s my job to look at this long day of baseball and try to pick out some gems. Like our favorite teams, we have yet to lose, so let’s channel that positivity and roll.
I’m generally a contrarian tournament player, so often I will focus on game theory reasons to play someone more than stats and having the highest projected player. Today, I’ll focus on the main DraftKings slate that starts at 1:05 est and includes 11 games.
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $9,600 – Maybe you’ve heard of this guy Jacob “burger is my favorite food” deGrom? He’s pretty good at pitching. On opening day, there are a lot of Aces you can choose from, and other flashy names like Cole and Burnes at cheaper salaries will distract them from the Ace of Aces. Add in the fact that there is a publicized pitch count of 65 against the Wold Series runner-ups, and you won’t find a day for better ownership on deGrom.
Hunter Greene, SP: $7,400 – Hunter Greene is my favorite “value” pitcher on DraftKings. The value there is in sneer quotes because pricing is so squished together that there are a lot of good players with too-cheap salaries at all positions. Once the hot summer rolls in at Great American Ball Park, we will have to look long and hard at using him at home with the way that the ball flies then. Let’s take advantage now while it’s still cool, and we let the strike-out potential of Greene vs the Pirates take us to the top.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B: $5,300 – Within these player picks, you’ll find a ministack that stands out to me tomorrow. It doesn’t have to be the exact players I have called out here, maybe there is a Toronto combination that fits your roster better, but you better include Vlad in that stack. Blue Jays feel like a team I will be playing a lot on days they face competent pitchers due to their blow-up potential no matter the opponent.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,900 – Patrick Corbin is a problem. He just doesn’t seem to have it anymore outside of a few good innings and one good game here or there. Otherwise, his opponents rolled him up in some papers and smoked him last season. Here we are on Opening Day and we already have our first elite offense against him. A general fade of the Braves is in order in large-field tournaments, but for anything else, you’ll want to work some part of the lineup into your plans.
Manny Machado, 3B: $5,400 – Manny got paid. Manny got a better lineup around him. Manny can smash this season. Sprinkle Manny into your builds on days when he won’t be popular like today.
Bo Bichette, SS: $4,600 – Bo found some fantasy magic in the last part of the 2022 season, and he looks like he hasn’t slowed down during Spring Training. I was down overall going into the previous season because I felt like the public was too hyped on his performance in those bandbox stadiums the Blue Jays played their games in during 2021. I’m back this year and expect big things. Put him in the Blue Jays low-owned stack today and whenever you can afford it.
Kyle Schwarber, OF: $5,600 – You’ll probably want to avoid playing Schwarber against deGrom in the same lineup, but any day I can get a hitter with multi-home run potential at barely any ownership, I’m all over it. Kyle is probably best used as a one-off in a lineup filled with other popular plays. Put him with your Braves stack and pray for him feasting on the bullpen after deGrom is pulled, and maybe getting lucky with a home run before that happens.
Daulton Varsho, OF: $3,800 – The last piece of the Blue Jays stack that I’m including in these picks is one of the left-handed hitting additions that was added to fill some of the gaps they had last year. Varsho can become Kevin Kiermaier if you are searching for salary, but we prefer Varsho to hit lower in the lineup and is a much better hitter.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
On this first afternoon slate, it looks like we will avoid any rain issues. Expect cold temperatures that favor pitchers in the outdoor stadiums in the Midwest and North East.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Most books have the Orioles and Red Sox total at 9 runs. I know the glory days for Corey Kluber are behind him and Kyle Gibson never had them, but they are both competent pitchers and will be pitching in 40-degree weather with two offenses that have a large range of outcomes this season. Give me the under here and fade the popular plays from this game in DFS.
