We have a fun 10 game slate tonight on DraftKings. There are 3 exciting SPs that come with expensive price tags and 3 cheaper SPs I will be looking to roster. Personally, I use K/BB ratios and projected K/BB to hone in on the most viable SPs for the day. I also look at the quality of the opponent by taking into account K/BB and wRC+. This gives me a lens through which to look at the slate.
Today, this lens is highlighting Garrett Crochet, Freddy Peralta, Nick Pivetta, Bryce Miller, Taj Bradley, and Ryan Gusto. For DFS purposes, we want the ceiling type scores. I track this by looking at the highest DK score a SP has produced compared against their average score. This helps highlight pitchers who have better stuff and are more capable of producing.
There is waaaaaaay more you can dig into about every pitcher, and I would encourage you to look at pitch mix developments and stuff+ numbers, etc. However, MLB DFS is played in such small sample sizes of one game that, really, nearly anything can happen. My goal on every slate is to be able to react to the results and say, “I understand how that happened,” because I have accounted for every game’s potential trajectory as long as an SP doesn’t get injured. For example, SEA has the best wRC+ on the slate and is facing a very weak SP, but one who is known for producing about 50% GBs. I can see a case where SEA fails to produce runs tonight because they hit too many GBs that produce double plays to kill rallies. I will likely roster SEA players, but I also do not need to force that stack because there is also a very real pathway to failure. I want to do that analysis for every team I can determine has a reason to be rostered.
Offensively, you are likely choosing between one of these 8 teams as your main stack tonight: SEA, LAD, ARI, TB, ATL, NYM, TEX, or MIL. You have a lot to think through in order to make a decision, but always keep in mind what leads to the most DFS points, HRs. SEA, TB, LAD, and NYM are the most likely teams to hit a bunch of HRs, something you need to take down a tourney.
Roster Construction is a big part of the strategy of MLB DFS. Consider stacking an offense and also rostering the SP. Always try to stack 5 players on slates this big. Often, 5-3 constructions take down tourneys, not necessarily because they have the highest upside, but they do produce solid upside, and rather than betting on 8 different players to do well, you are betting on two offenses. Good luck!
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on Underdog and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Nick Pivetta, SP: $9,500 – Pivetta is in a good spot tonight. He has been very good in his home ballpark, which most analysts predicted. He has an ability to produce the top score on the slate, and his opponent, SF, is an average team offensively so far. I’ll take my chances here tonight.
Garrett Crochet, SP: $10,500 – Crochet is another great tournament option on this slate. He has the highest price tag, but at least legitimately comes with the highest ceiling, and his price tag should keep him less owned than his potential to produce a ceiling score. He has the best stuff+ numbers for this slate, but his location has been off in various starts. If his location is on, he will be on some winning rosters.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,100 – There are a lot of expensive options at C, but I’m not sure how I can afford those prices. To save a little money, I am thinking of rostering the solid option out of ARI, who fits nicely as part of a stack. He rarely Ks and should be batting with players on base most of the game.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B: $4,500 – Aranda might end up being the steal of the 2025 fantasy draft. He is not only batting .300 with 4 HRs, but his underlying metrics all support this strong start. His price is just below the elite 1B bats, likely only because his name is less known.
Dylan Moore, 2B: $4,600 – Whenever Moore gets playing time, he takes advantage. At 32, he still has power and speed skills and has done a surprising job limiting Ks so far. This is another strong matchup where Moore should not have to worry about the Ks, and a HR + SB in the same game is very much in the cards.
Mark Vientos, 3B: $3,500 – I love playing Vientos at this cheap price. He has the power to hit a HR or two, and in addition, he should have people on base in front of him most of the game. You can’t find a more fairly priced 3B.
Jeremy Pena, SS: $3,700 – Normally, I like to target an elite SS, and I am arguing that Pena is putting up elite contact numbers at a bottom barrel price. He has the same K/BB and barrel rate as Witt and Lindor. I could see playing Pena as a one off to try to save some salary at SS tonight.
Eddie Rosario, OF: $2,200 – The OF position is a great place to take some chances in order to save salary. Rosario may be in the Braves lineup tonight in a game at Coors for a bottom barrel price. If he plays, he will see his fair share of ownership. Play him as a one off to avoid the expensive and highly owned ATL stacks.
Jackson Chourio, OF: $5,200 – This is my favorite high priced bat tonight. Chourio does not wait for a walk, and that’s why I love him for DFS. It is warming up in Chicago, and that pitching staff is bad news. Chourio should be hitting the ball hard every time up, and Rate Field is known to boost HR production.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The main weather concern is in New York where the Mets and Diamondbacks will have a 20 mph wind helping push the ball out of the ballpark. ARI is not really known as a power hitting team (except Eugenio Suarez!!) so this wind should help when they get the ball in the air.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I think Vegas is overrating Jacob deGrom tonight. They are too highly favored over the Athletics, especially with the lineup they have been putting out on the field. I would put bets on ATH getting to deGrom before TEX gets to the ATH bullpen in this one.
so Albombso is the Dinger Tuesday pick?