Hey, Razzball nation! It’s another Wednesday and another MarmosDad DFS writeup to help you build your mid-week DFS lineups! We’ve officially made it to June (well, I guess not all of us – thanks a lot, Adalberto and Franmil). Things are starting to shape up in MLB and those hot and cold starts by both players and teams are beginning to even out towards what some people had predicted. Some, like the Yankees and Dodgers, are atop their divisions while others like the Los Angeles Angels have officially exorcised what they hope was the problem (bye bye Joe Maddon) and look to make up some ground in the race to the top.
Speaking of lots of hot and cold teams, this Wednesday is similar to the other midweek peeks that we’ve had this year. Today is yet another full list of 15 games with just two early starts – Detroit at Pittsburgh at 12:35 PM ET and Toronto at Kansas City’s first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The rest of the games are all evening starts with three at 6:40 PM ET, a bunch starting at 7:05 PM ET, and the final game of the day – Colorado at San Francisco – starting at 9:45 PM ET.
Today’s piece has a couple of big aces lined up to produce some good numbers, a few big boppers, a catcher pick that’ll (hopefully) make you Feelgood, and some 5 tool bats that could help across the board. Add in a sprinkle of 80’s pop references and a Pulp Fiction quote, and I think we’re all set for a great day at the ballpark. Grab a cold Yuengling for me, (if you’re at PNC this afternoon!), and settle in for MarmosDad’s picks for your DFS lineups today!
But first, as always, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the other DFS tools available right here on Razzball. The DraftKings and Fanduel lineup optimizers are well worth the buy if you’re a serious DFS player. As a side note to the year-long fantasy leaguers out there, Rudy’s draft software is well worth the buy next spring too! You can access all of this information, by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFS Bot link below.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on FanDuel and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFS Bot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Nestor Cortes, SP: (DK) $10,300 – Here’s your big arm for the day, fellas and 5 fell-ettes. Over his last 5 starts, Cortes has averaged 28.68 DraftKings points. In each of those starts, he’s managed to record a win and tally at least 7 K’s in all but one game. He has thrown 96 or more pitches in each of those starts, and sports an overall chalkboard of some pretty ridiculous numbers : 5-1, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9. Not only is this a big pick today, (and the 6th SP on the Streamonator at 27.2), but if Cortes keeps this up he’s going to continue to build on an already impressive resume for Cy Young consideration in October. At over $10K, he’s the most expensive SP, and will cost you a big chunk from the DK purse, but a nice matchup against the Twins and Chris Archer should give him a good chance to continue his early season success.
Sandy Alcantara, SP: (DK) $9,200 – Well, I looked at today’s slate and decided to pick Alcantara as my second SP to roll out against Josiah Gray and the Washington Nationals. Streamonator likes Alcantara even more than it likes Cortes today (29.8) as the 4th ranked pitcher. Just as I was prepping for a deeper dive, I saw the notes for another podcast that mentioned the Razzball Player Rater and decided to take a peek at the SP rankings for the season so far. Alcantara is ranked 3rd there behind only Shane McClanahan and Joe Musgrove, and ahead of the guy that has aged more gracefully than Paul Rudd – Justin Verlander. The numbers read much like Cortes’s: 6-2, 8.56 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, and a 0.48 HR/9. According to all of this, Alcantara’s price should be much higher than his $9,200 price tag today, but that’s not our problem. Set it and forget it with Sandy today.
Alejandro Kirk, C: (DK) $5,200 – A couple of weeks ago I joked about the Blue Jays catchers and likened them to Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito from the movie Twins. Danny Jansen was officially back from an oblique injury and it seemed like the dynamic Northern duo was ready to backstop a potent Jays lineup into the early days of summer. Well, Jansen officially fractured a bone in his left hand, (near his pinky finger), so that puts an end to that dream for now. Speaking of pinky fingers, Jansen’s ‘mini-me’, Alejandro Kirk, has been on a bit of a heater himself. Of the last 11 games that Kirk has appeared in, he’s been held hitless just once. In that span, Kirk has hit 4 homers, had 6 multi-hit games, and raised his triple slash line to .306/.389/.465. It also looks like he at least secured guaranteed playing time every day with Jansen’s newest injury. You know it’s good to keep an eye on a catcher if his name keeps popping up in Grey’s daily comments, as Kirk’s has. Alejandro could have another big day today against Brady Singer and the Royals. Kirk-start my heart indeed!
Christian Walker, 1B: (DK) $3,900 – Yes, we’re going with the Hunter Dozier ($3,900) doppleganger today! At the same price tag, one has to wonder if the DraftKings pricing robots frequent the same oil change pubs as Streamonator and Hittertron do. As for Walker, if you’re looking for solid contact numbers and a high average…you’ve got the scouting report upside down. This is a roll-of-the-dice, all-or-nothing, hyphens-are-fun, strictly-power-play. Walker could pop off a homer or two…or he could strike out 4 times. If he does the former, yippee! If he does the latter…I told you so…kind of. At $3,900, I think it’s worth the risk as Walker has hit for a better average against LHP and faces Mike Minor in Cincinnati today.
Christopher Morel, 2B/OF: (DK) $4,300 – This is another buzz-worthy name that has popped up in FAAB articles and podcasts over the last week or two. I didn’t even realize until after I had written and started to edit this writeup that Knoche slotted him into his DFS article yesterday too! How did that go, you might wonder? A homer and a triple! Genius!
Morel has been leading off for the Cubs, and showing his positional versatility moving from CF to 2B to SS to 3B throughout his 21 games. Overall, that versatility should keep him in the lineup, while his .389 OBP should help him stay at the top of it. He has shown power (10 XBH) and speed (6 SB), but perhaps the most interesting bit is that Morel has only gone hitless in 2 of his 21 games. Like a lot of the other picks here, riding a hot bat that shows 5 tool ability is a good move for a lower price tag today.
Dansby Swanson, SS: (DK) $5,200 – Grey and B-Don spoke at length about Dansby Swanson on last week’s podcast, and the numbers certainly support a closer look. Swanson has 6 homers on the year, 5 of which have come at home. He’s gotten hits in 8 of his last 10 games, along with 2 XBH and 3 SB. Swanson may be more of a shrewd play in year long leagues, but he has shown some consistency lately with the bat and has the potential to hit for some power along with his speed (9 steals on the year). He’s a good pick against a rookie LHP in Atlanta today if you’re looking for a more affordable play to round out your infield.
Ezequiel Duran, 2B/3B: (DK) $2,000 – (Apologies to Samuel L Jackson for this one)…Ezequiel 25 (man roster) : #70 — “The Path of the middle infield man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish, and the tyranny of evil Maddon. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good wOBA, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness. For he is truly his brother’s (Jhoan or Jarren’s) keeper and the finder of lost Semien. And I will strike down upon thee with great exit velocity and furious barrel rates those who attempt to poison and destroy my Rangers. And you will know my name is Duran, when I lay my vengeance upon thee!” Ezequiel was called up and promptly hammered a 402 foot bomb off a 100 MPH Andres Munoz fastball the next day. He’s facing Shane Bieber in this one, but Duran is priced so low that he can fill in at 2B or 3B if you want to load up on a Big Kahuna burger elsewhere.
Randy Arozarena, OF: (DK) $4,700 – I was tempted to go with Red Sox youngster Jarren Duran here, just to have a fountain of worthy 80’s pop puns to pair with the previous blurb. But I resisted that natural Reflex and instead went with the more expensive Rio…er… Randy Arozarena for the first OF pick. Tampa’s LF started his year out on a much different note than he finished last season. Arozarena didn’t steal his first base until April 20th, and didn’t hit his first home run until May 9th. Since then, the Rice Bowl has been steadily bumping up that average (.262 on the year after a .196 April), and the reigning AL Rookie of the Year looks like a good gamble for some steals and power numbers tonight. He checks in as Hittertron’s 4th rated outfielder today and he’s a good bet to feast on some St. Louis pitching because he’s Hungry Like The…well, you know.
Bryce Harper, OF: (DK) $5,300 – This one is also a Hittertron play as Bryce Harper is the 2nd ranked hitter (and OF) behind Ronald Acuna Jr. today with a 36.9. To say that Harper is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the NL DH might be an understatement. In a regular year with no NL DH, Harper’s elbow and forearm ailments would make it nearly impossible for him to get regular playing time in RF at Citizens Bank Park. Luckily for the Phillies, Harper has been able to start 40 of his 48 games as a DH and has avoided putting too much stress on his arm. Coming off of a 3 homer weekend, and putting up a season slash line of .309/.370/.628, I’d say that things are working out just Phine for the Phace of the Phranchise in Philly. 10 of his 13 homers against RHP? Yep. Batting .372 on the road? Uh huh. Sounds like numbers that will make Adrian Houser queasy in Milwaukee today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains…
There’s some rain in the forecast in Cincinnati (40%) and Miami (29% – but they have that retractable roof). Keep an eye on those two and the Atlanta game (12% P.O.P).
As for the other weather focus, the strongest winds predicted are at KC (12.4 MPH) and San Francisco (12.6 MPH).
Doing Lines In Vegas…
For the straight moneyline plays, as much as I love Tony Gonsolin his opponent (Jonny Cueto) at home at +150 seems like too good of a play to pass up. Detroit’s Alex Faedo at +100 over Mitch Keller and the Pirates looks like a worthwhile underdog gamble too (albeit not a huge one).
As of last night, the New York Mets (Chris Bassitt) vs. San Diego Padres (Sean Manaea) total runs of 7.5 looked like the only UNDER that I would mess with.
Best of luck in the DFS plays today! If you have any questions, shoot me a note on Twitter @MarmosDad
