Did you know that LHPs on average hold hitters to a below average wRC+ while RHPs allow above average offense. Without factoring in price or ownership, rostering left handed starters would be a better statistical play over time. Most of the lefties today are priced up, but Matthew Liberatore is less than 8k and faces the White Sox. If you rostered plays like that over time, you would be creating profit. That’s what DFS is about. We make decisions on individual plays and whole lineups to try to position our roster to be in a better spot to outscore everyone else. Keep thinking about what kinds of roster constructions (hint: stacks), team stacks, and individual plays can come out ahead if this slate was played 100 times. Focus on those when making decisions and try to correlate your roster decisions so that you don’t have to get 6 or 7 things right on one slate, but rather 4 or 5. It is more likely to go 5 for 5 than 7 for 7.
Today, I think you can narrow down your pool of pitchers to just 8. These 8 options really stand out in some strong statistical areas, and I would be willing to roll with any of them: Ray, Abbott, Woo, Peterson, Liberatore, Warren, Brown, and Festa. I have the least trust in Ben Brown out of that group, and Festa has a limited pitch count if you wanted to drop a couple.
Offense should be plentiful from among the following teams: TOR, HOU, TB, ATH, LAD, NYY and ARI. I’ll source a lot of my plays from these teams hoping for a good team context as well as individual matchup.
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Will Warren, SP: $7,500 – Warren strikes out 32% of right handed batters and only walks 6%. The Angels have three lefties, and 2 of them have a wRC+ near 50. This could be a nice night for Warren.
Bryan Woo, SP: $9,500 – The Red Sox are now missing their best two hitters, playing in a pitcher’s park against a pitcher who really exploits that park to his advantage. Woo needs to dominate because of his low pitch counts, but he can do that vs. this BOS team.
Alejandro Kirk, C: $3,800 – Kirk is hitting the ball hard (hardest of his career and tops for a C over the past 14 days), resulting in a great batting average and a nice spot in that order. I like him, but I really like him as part of a 3, 4, or 5 man TOR stack.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $4,600 – I was surprised to see Vlad so low on the fantasy player rater for 1B. He has not been a great fantasy contributor this year, but that comes down to team context and Vlad’s propensity for ground balls. If I am stacking TOR today, that means my path to first requires a standout game from Vlad. He is the best hitter on that team and hits the ball hard as always.
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $4,400 – I like to go cheaper at 2B, but usually that requires waiting till lineups have been posted and seeking a 2B that has moved up in the order for the day. Lowe is a great power hitter and he is in position tonight to generate some more hard hit balls. If you roster him, I hope they go out of the park.
Max Muncy, 3B: $3,900 – It is not time to jump off the “Drop it Like it’s Hot!” train. Muncy is an OBP wizard and is hitting the ball extremely well. He should continue to produce, especially in this matchup.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $6,200 – In the last 14 games Elly has hit the ball hard 15% more than the next closest SS. He has cut his K% and can get on base with the walk too. He is turning into the best player in MLB, at least the top SS.
Jac Caglianone, OF: $3,200 – It is never fun to play a one off from the Royals (unless it’s Bobby Witt) since the team does not generate much offense. Caglianone can do quite a bit on his own as well. His hard hit data is great and borderline elite. Even without a top team that can keep turning the lineup around, Jac’s price more than takes that into account. He will start turning in good results soon.
George Springer, OF: $4,300 – Career players who get old often have to refine what they do in order to stay relevant. Springer has the best wRC+ on TOR this year. Even at his age, he is still barreling the ball and doing damage in the heart of that lineup. He is cheaper and fits with the TOR stack.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing to worry about.
Doing Lines In Vegas
These lines almost always look fine. If I were to squabble, it’s that some of the totals seem a bit too high (or too low) for certain teams, for example, the Cubs and St. Louis. Nothing else looks out of place.
