Richard… Fat guy in a little coat… Fat guy in a little coat…

Fantasy Baseballers… Small guy with a big bat… Small guy with a biiiiig baaaat…

Here’s my first ballsy projection for you guys this year: .283AVG-7HR-10SB-61R-63RBI (361OBP/.404SLG/.765OPS/.340wOBA).

But let me clarify… think of him as your 2014 version of the 2013 version of Anthony Rendon.

Razzball’s Scott Evans tagged La Stella as the #7 prospect in the Braves’ system. While he lacks notable tools (as we can see by his MiLB counting stats), he should have the biggest and best thing going his way… Opportunity, and by opportunity I mean Dan Uggla.

Uggla’s contact rate continues to drop off with a sense of urgency, and even with a rebound in BABIP, he’ll wind up under a .220 BA. Some may think he’s still an asset because of the HR rate, but while he backed up the 16.7% HR/FB with a top 30 HR & FB average distance, based on the two years prior in conbination with age, there’s a good chance the HR/FB drops off with a decrease in average distance. So we know he’s not usable for fantasy purposes anymore. The question is– do the Braves feel the same way?

I’ll tell you right now, in my opinion this should be the BravesDustin Pedroia. Check out the contact and batted-ball related matrix first:

Season
Team Age G PA AB K% BB% BB/K HR/OFB GB/FB GB% FB% LD%
2006 AAA 22 111 493 423 5.50% 9.70% 1.78 3.5% 1.64 42.1 25.6 21.4
Season
Team Age G PA AB K% BB% BB/K HR/OFB GB/FB GB% FB% LD%
2013 AA 24 81 323 283 10.50% 11.50% 1.09 3.40% 1.86 47.6 25.6 21.6

And now the rate stats and runs produced:

Season
Team BABIP AVG OBP OPS SLG ISO AVG R RBI
2006 AAA 0.314 0.305 0.384 0.81 0.426 0.121 0.305 55 50
Season
Team BABIP AVG OBP OPS SLG ISO AVG R RBI
2013 AA 0.38 0.343 0.401 0.944 0.543 0.216 0.328 46 40

AAA = Dustin Pedroia and AA = Tommy La Stella, and really, this and age are the only things going against La Stella… he’s not yet had time at AAA and he’s two years older than Pedroia by the time he gets to the majors. There’s also a chance Uggla consumes time initially and who knows – maybe he rebounds enough to keep La Stella in AAA, but I’m for this not happening.

You can point to La Stella’s BABIP, and sure there was a bit of luck relative to his expected BABIP, but it’s obvious he has tremendous control of the strike zone and as a lefty, could beat out groundballs well.

Let’s see what value he could provide in fantasy terms (and assume Uggla consumes 60ish games). I have La Stella projected as follows:

Appearances: 105G/393PA/349AB

Discipline: 10.9K%/10.0BB%

Ball in play mix: 47.5GB%/32%FB/20.5%LD; 5.4%HR/FB = .310 xBABIP

5×5 Stats: .283BA-46R-5HR-9SB-48RBI (.361OBP/.404SLG/.765OPS/.340wOBA)

This would actually put him in “replacement value territory” for 2B’s. In 140 games he’d go something like: 7HR-12SB-61R-63RBI, which would make him a top 20 2B in Neil Walker/Omar Infante territory.

 

Dano owns RotoBanter.com.  You can follow him on Twitter @Rotobanter.

47 Comments
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Mike
Mike
8 years ago

Setting up a ESPN fantasy baseball league; it’s H2H points, as of now it’s 8 teams, waiting to hear back from the last two so it may be up to 10. I have a pitching limit set at 9 games started per matchup- have three starting pitching slots , and two relief pitcher slots (I can use a starting pitcher at the RP slot, last yr I had cashner & Shelby who were RP/SP eligible )

My question is 9 games started for three starting pitchers fine?

Here’s how roster would go

Catcher-

1 base

2nd base

3rd base

SS

Infielder Slot

4 Outfielder Slots

DH

Utility

4 bench spots

1 DL slot

Starting pitcher

Starting pitcher

Starting pitcher

Relief pitcher

Relief pitcher

Which is better or is it all preference? Weekly lock leagues , or daily leagues?

Thanks- mike!

Jeff Sullivan
Jeff Sullivan
8 years ago

Higher yahoo raniking at end of 2014 year : Pujols or Strasburg?

Dano
Reply to  Jeff Sullivan
8 years ago

@Jeff Sullivan: strasburg…pujols trends started in ’11 & age…assumes enough health from Strasburg

Ps if you’re the real Jeff Sullivan I love you

Jeff Sullivan
Jeff Sullivan
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano:

I am a real Jeff Sullivan and thanks for the advice. I put my money on Strasburg.

Anthony
Anthony
8 years ago

Another question for ya!! Would you rather have Matt Carpenter and Mike Moustakas or Prado and Evereth Cabrera?

I’d be getting carpenter and have Castro and alexei as my other shortstops. I really don’t want Evereth but can’t afford to lose a keeper deal by a lot either. Much appreciated!

Dano
Reply to  Anthony
8 years ago

@Anthony: craps best player in deal but prob rather everth & prado

fausto
fausto
8 years ago

HELP ANYONE PLEASE!!! First time in a keeper league. I literally just inherited this team as of last night. Max salary is $270, 10 team roto. Trying to decide on keepers. Here are my options..
– Jay Bruce ($28)
– Edwin Encarnacion ($27)
– Adrian Gonzalez ($28)
– Ian Kinsler ($30)
– Kendrys Morales ($5)
– Dustin Pedroia ($30)
– Carlos Santana ($17)
– Alfonso Soriano ($7)
– Grant Balfour ($10)
– Cole Hamels ($28)
– LaTroy Hawkins ($5)
– Mike Leake ($5)
– Jonathan Papelbon ($12)
– Sergio Romo ($10)
– Rafeal Soriano ($12)
– Chris Tillman ($4)

Yescheese
Yescheese
Reply to  fausto
8 years ago

@fausto: Bruce, I dislike e3 but I guess keep him, pedroia, leake and Tillman nice values,not a huge fan of the closers but all of their prices are OK, Santana if you believe in him, I think kinsler and Adrian are too pricey for what they give you but depends what else is out there

Rags
Rags
8 years ago

I’m in a dynasty league that’s doing our auction in multiple parts.

I feel like I might need a little cash for the final push, I’m thinking about dropping/trading Dahl and Wisler for a little cap space. I have them both at 5 (no salary increase until they get promoted). 8 MiLBers per team, and I already have Springer, Tavares and Odor. Wisler and Dahl at 5 are no great losses, right? Even if I can’t find a trade partner, is it worth dropping them for lower prospects just to clear $8 off my cap?

Anyone’s thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks!

Dano
Reply to  Rags
8 years ago

@Rags: I like both Dahl & Wisler. Depends on who lower prospects are….if cap space needed for a win now approach I wouldn’t over stress it

Luis
Luis
8 years ago

Someone just dropped Oswaldo Arcia in my 12 team, roto league. I have a weak OF (Beltran, Gardner, Swish, Rajai and Revere). Would you drop Jeter, Motte or Henderson? We only do saves in this league. I picked up Jeter thinking he might score a bunch of runs if he stays healthy. What do you think?

Dano
Reply to  Luis
8 years ago

@Luis: if arcia is healthy it’s 65-25-75-260 …I’d take him over Jeter and motte

elipitt
elipitt
8 years ago

Anyone else having trouble with the war room or is it on my end?

Thanks.

Boatsphinx
Boatsphinx
8 years ago

12 tm H2H dynasty lg question: trade Hamels for Brandon Moss and Yordano Ventura? This move would clear $20 in cap space. Also, I’m worried about his shoulder. Thanks!

Dano
Reply to  Boatsphinx
8 years ago

@Boatsphinx: I mean do I like Ventura quite a bit…velocity with longterm groundball induction..and moss for cheap power + the savings…if u have enough pitching this year sure

Scooterboy
Scooterboy
8 years ago

Can I get an opinion on this team I just drafted. I usually try to draft 1B, OF in the first two rounds, but couldn’t pass up on Cano when he fell to 16. It’s an 10 team ESPN 5×5 league.

C Wilson Ramos Rd 15/pick145
1B Paul Goldschmidt Rd 1/ pick 5
2B Robinson Cano Rd 2/pick 16
3B Ryan Zimmerman Rd 6/pick 56
SS Jean Segura Rd 7/pick 65
MI Jedd Gyorko Rd 13/pick 125
CI Anthony Rizzo Rd 12/pick 116
OF Yasiel Puig Rd 3/ pick 25
OF Jay Bruce Rd 4/pick 36
OF Wil Myers Rd 8/pick 76
OF Alex Gordon Rd 10/pick 96
OF Alejandro De Aza Rd 17/pick 165
U Corey Hart Rd 20/pick 196
SP Jose Fernandez Rd 5/pick 45
SP Alex Cobb Rd 9/pick 85
SP Julio Teheran Rd 11/pick 105
SP Michael Wacha Rd 14/pick 136
SP Sonny Gray Rd 18/pick 176
SP Rick Porcello Rd 22/pick 216
RP David Robinson Rd 16/pick 156
RP Houston Street Rd 19/pick 185
RP Fernando Rodney Rd 21/pick 205

gareth
gareth
Reply to  Scooterboy
8 years ago

@Scooterboy: very nice team. Grey would be proud.

Dano
Reply to  gareth
8 years ago

@gareth: um irrationally good I don’t believe it

Scooterboy
Scooterboy
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: Just drafted this team today on ESPN. Sorry you don’t believe it. I thought it was to good too, when Cano fell to me at 16, I about pissed my pants. For the life of me, I can’t see how that happened. Was suprised Goldschmidt fell to me at five also. But this is the second draft that he has fallen to me with a mid first round pick.

Scooterboy
Scooterboy
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: Believe it or not, this team actually finished seventh out of the ten teams, on the final standings following the draft, according to ESPN

Yager
Yager
8 years ago

One hour until the draft in our RCL and we need 2 more teams. Who wants in?! League name: Shizz Happens, password: Giancarlo.

Yager
Yager
Reply to  Yager
8 years ago

One more! @Yager:

ryan
ryan
8 years ago

Can I get your opinion on a trade? In my 20 team dynasty league do I trade fielder phillips victorino for ellsbury domonic brown and rasmus? Good or bad move? I could use the speed and I like the fact of dealing my aging bats in phillips and victorino. What do you think?

c evan gattis
1b miguel cabrera
2b brandon phillips
3b evan longoria
ss jurickson profar
lf justin upton
cf shane victorino
rf michael cuddyer
util prince fielder
bn neil walker
bn carl crawford/kris bryant/joc pederson/clint frazier

sp clayton kershaw
sp yu darvish
sp cliff lee
rp jose veras
rp sean doolittle
rp dan delarosa
p zack wheeler
p dan straily
p tanner roark
bn garrett richards
Bn brian Wilson

Dano
Reply to  ryan
8 years ago

@ryan: your pitchings orgazmo…I do trust brown if you like ellsbury to repeat last year and u still have miggy/longo

ryan
ryan
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: So I take it I should accept or is fielder’s durability/power upside too much to give up?

centerfield_ballhawk
centerfield_ballhawk
Reply to  ryan
8 years ago

@ryan: I would not make that move. Those aging bats still have plenty of life in them. I’m a Phillies fan but I’m not a Dom Brown believer.

Anthony
Anthony
8 years ago

Hey man in a 12 team h2h league would you rather have Darvish and Prado or Choo and Gray? Thanks!!

Dano
Reply to  Anthony
8 years ago

@Anthony: hmm h2h makes it interesting…I like the ace and pos flex of prado tho. Even tho I believe in gray x 10, dervish is a stud h2h

Wallpaper Paterson
Wallpaper Paterson
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: darvish and prado

Yescheese
Yescheese
8 years ago

Unless yanks trade for Uggla. Manna from heaven

Jason
Jason
Reply to  Yescheese
8 years ago

@Yescheese: they’re already at their quota for hopeless 2nd baseman.

gareth
gareth
8 years ago

“LA STELLLAAAAAA!”

-marlon brando

Joseph
8 years ago

I just can’t imagine them paying Uggla $10M+ to ride the pine, especially when he’ll continue to hit 20 HR as a 2b.

Wallpaper Paterson
Wallpaper Paterson
8 years ago

I will probably be starting a RCL league this evening. Draft will be next Saturday or Sunday with a start time of probably noon eastern.

Dano
Reply to  Wallpaper Paterson
8 years ago

@Wallpaper Paterson: geterdone!

Jason
Jason
8 years ago

Btw great avatar. I have that card. I have the whole set. Some ridiculous poses!

Wallpaper Paterson
Wallpaper Paterson
Reply to  Jason
8 years ago

@Jason: what set is it?

Jason
Jason
Reply to  Wallpaper Paterson
8 years ago

@Wallpaper Paterson: there from score. I’m pretty sure it was line 90 or 91. I’m a lot older now and memory isn’t as sharp so I could be wrong. I always felt like it was their answer to donruss diamond kings.

Alright change of plans… Get up in the attic and pull these bad boys down. Then think about how great it was back then. Then cry about how it is now….

Dano
Reply to  Jason
8 years ago

@Jason: yeah ’91 score dream team…I should put my face on Puckett I know

Jason
Jason
8 years ago

I’ve been seeing a lot more written about this guy lately. I’ve got a 20 tm draft coming up in which I’ll be looking to grab him in.

Dano
Reply to  Jason
8 years ago

@Jason: nice. Yeah I’m in a 20 leaguer dynasty league w/ 15 round milb segment. So for reference I think I took him in 8. Thanks about the aviator. Wifey made it better for me so I’ll have to update it….it was either this or the more realistic chubby Kirby Puckett and his shirt off

jesse
8 years ago

Nice work. Will have to keep an eye on this guy for sure.