Richard… Fat guy in a little coat… Fat guy in a little coat…
Fantasy Baseballers… Small guy with a big bat… Small guy with a biiiiig baaaat…
Here’s my first ballsy projection for you guys this year: .283AVG-7HR-10SB-61R-63RBI (361OBP/.404SLG/.765OPS/.340wOBA).
But let me clarify… think of him as your 2014 version of the 2013 version of Anthony Rendon.
Razzball’s Scott Evans tagged La Stella as the #7 prospect in the Braves’ system. While he lacks notable tools (as we can see by his MiLB counting stats), he should have the biggest and best thing going his way… Opportunity, and by opportunity I mean Dan Uggla.
Uggla’s contact rate continues to drop off with a sense of urgency, and even with a rebound in BABIP, he’ll wind up under a .220 BA. Some may think he’s still an asset because of the HR rate, but while he backed up the 16.7% HR/FB with a top 30 HR & FB average distance, based on the two years prior in conbination with age, there’s a good chance the HR/FB drops off with a decrease in average distance. So we know he’s not usable for fantasy purposes anymore. The question is– do the Braves feel the same way?
I’ll tell you right now, in my opinion this should be the Braves’ Dustin Pedroia. Check out the contact and batted-ball related matrix first:
|
Season
|
Team | Age | G | PA | AB | K% | BB% | BB/K | HR/OFB | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| 2006 | AAA | 22 | 111 | 493 | 423 | 5.50% | 9.70% | 1.78 | 3.5% | 1.64 | 42.1 | 25.6 | 21.4 |
|
Season
|
Team | Age | G | PA | AB | K% | BB% | BB/K | HR/OFB | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| 2013 | AA | 24 | 81 | 323 | 283 | 10.50% | 11.50% | 1.09 | 3.40% | 1.86 | 47.6 | 25.6 | 21.6 |
And now the rate stats and runs produced:
|
Season
|
Team | BABIP | AVG | OBP | OPS | SLG | ISO | AVG | R | RBI |
| 2006 | AAA | 0.314 | 0.305 | 0.384 | 0.81 | 0.426 | 0.121 | 0.305 | 55 | 50 |
|
Season
|
Team | BABIP | AVG | OBP | OPS | SLG | ISO | AVG | R | RBI |
| 2013 | AA | 0.38 | 0.343 | 0.401 | 0.944 | 0.543 | 0.216 | 0.328 | 46 | 40 |
AAA = Dustin Pedroia and AA = Tommy La Stella, and really, this and age are the only things going against La Stella… he’s not yet had time at AAA and he’s two years older than Pedroia by the time he gets to the majors. There’s also a chance Uggla consumes time initially and who knows – maybe he rebounds enough to keep La Stella in AAA, but I’m for this not happening.
You can point to La Stella’s BABIP, and sure there was a bit of luck relative to his expected BABIP, but it’s obvious he has tremendous control of the strike zone and as a lefty, could beat out groundballs well.
Let’s see what value he could provide in fantasy terms (and assume Uggla consumes 60ish games). I have La Stella projected as follows:
Appearances: 105G/393PA/349AB
Discipline: 10.9K%/10.0BB%
Ball in play mix: 47.5GB%/32%FB/20.5%LD; 5.4%HR/FB = .310 xBABIP
5×5 Stats: .283BA-46R-5HR-9SB-48RBI (.361OBP/.404SLG/.765OPS/.340wOBA)
This would actually put him in “replacement value territory” for 2B’s. In 140 games he’d go something like: 7HR-12SB-61R-63RBI, which would make him a top 20 2B in Neil Walker/Omar Infante territory.
Dano owns RotoBanter.com. You can follow him on Twitter @Rotobanter.
