Deep Impact: Calling The Ketel Black

As someone said, Ketel Marte is 170 lbs soaking wet. And being 6’1″, he doesn’t have a particularly big frame (Jose Altuve is 5’6″ and weighs the same). Marte has been a slap-happy hitter that puts the ball in play and legs them out. After a hot stove trade sent our Ketel from Seattle to Arizona he began to get a taste of success. He improved his plate discipline working at AAA and his OBP went from .287 (in 2016 with the Mariners) to a respectable .345 along with a slight uptick in power after being called up in June of the 2017 season. Then in 2018, he put it together for respectable 14 HR with a slash of .260/.332/.437 over a full season. Last year he showed some sneaky HR potential, but nothing like what we’ve seen this season…

So what the hell is going on with this kid? Who lit a fire under Ketel? Is this Ketel just a flash in the pan? Is the cauldron of Arizona inflating his power? Why has he suddenly gone from Ketel Eckstein to Ketel Guerrero? Why do I keep asking hyperbolic questions? In today’s deep dive, we attempt to answer these questions and more.

His quality of contact is up in all categories. His exit velo has ticked up, barreling up more, hard hit rate up, and has doubled his LA. Ah, somebody went to the Tommy La Stella School for the Launch Angle Challenged. He is clearly hitting the ball better and that’s driving the bump in power (pun points!). Let’s check the BIP data.

Ketel is hitting way more flyballs this year, as hinted at by doubling his avg LA. At a crazy 20.4% HR/FB ratio, surely that has to come down closer to league average 14.5% (DJ LeMahieu is at 16.2% for heaven’s sake); but, he is getting around on pitches he likes and pulling at a higher rate. You can’t attribute this to his home park either since 14 of his 20 HR have come on the road. From 2018 to 2019, you can see that his pull distribution has narrowed more to his ideal driving range, which is important for someone of his size and frame to maximize power on contact.

Last year, the slider always got him into hot water. The biggest key to his success appears to be A) tripling his LA vs Fastballs (5 to 14); and most importantly, he is B) able to do damage against sliders and curves which used to be his weakness. Looks like somebody gave Jobu more rum. The big flashing light is that he has hit 8 of his 20 HR off of these pitches this year; and more specifically, he’s hit 5 off sliders compared to 0 last year. Marte has figured out how to hit sliders when it used to be the death of him, and the confidence shows since he is challenging them 10% more. He has turned his kryptonite into his power.

The proof is in the pudding. He is targeting more pitches down in the zone (breaking balls) this year than 2018. In addition, he is crushing those pitches that he can put his A-swing on. With his degree in Launch Angle Theory, he knows where his bread is buttered. Balls down in the zone, allow him to maximize the power from his small frame. He’s added more swing and miss to his approach, but he’s going to give those balls his best swing and so far it’s worked in his favor. And in the MLB, slider usage is up from 16.9% last year to 18.4% this year, so there’s been more of these pitches for him to swing at. Marte likes low pitches now and hits them hard.

Until the league starts attacking him in the top corners and keeping sliders out of the zone he should continue to feast. Because he has improved specifically on these types of pitches, I’m thinking pitchers will adjust some and he gets maybe 10-13ish HRs the rest of the way. That though is still a huge improvement for him considering he hit all of 14 total last year. Ketel appears to be the real deal as he’s learned to get the most out of his bat. And with Manfred juicing the balls this year, it’s just in time for teeing off.