So, there was some high drama behind the scenes for this rookie outlook post. Prospect Itch does not, under any circumstances, agree with me writing or promoting Cristian Pache in any way. Thinks he’s overrated and might struggle to hit .220. Others in my close orbit have no qualms with this post. Others in my close orbit include Cougs and Ted, my dog. Bless their hearts, but neither even know who Cristian Pache is, so when I asked them if I should write a post about Cristian Pache, they didn’t have the deepest of insights. As you might’ve saw, in Itch’s top 50 fantasy baseball prospects for redraft leagues (meaning: The best for 2021, and only 2021), Pache didn’t even crack the top 40. So, I obviously think higher of Pache than Itch, and it’s not just because I saw Pache wears a Star of David. Let’s get one thing out of the way, Notacristian Pachestein, as he’s commonly known amongst the Hebrews, ranks way higher on regular baseball prospect lists because his defense is a chef’s kiss from the sea to shining sea. Andruw Jones just popped his head out of his mansion on the island of Curaçao, and said, “Did I time travel forward to 2020?” Jones might’ve, but Pache is his own man, but his defense is just as sexy. If you watched the playoffs, you saw him rob a home run with a “hop and sit down” like it was en bee dee. Defense is not a part of most people’s fantasy games, but if you have anything defensive minded in one of your crazy category leagues, Pache is a top three center fielder immediately in the league, and might be the top one with opportunities. But, back to our normie leagues, where defense is ignored and is about figuring out if Itch is right to mostly ignore Pache for 2021, or if there’s more here. So, what can we expect from Cristian Pache for 2021 fantasy baseball?
Psyche! My NFBC league filled, so we’ve started another league with Donkey Teeth. It’s 150 smackers to join, one thousand smackers to the winner with a thirty-thousand-smackers overall prize, and other runner-up smackers. Lots of smackers. It’s a slow draft with a 2-hour clock. Should be fun and super easy to beat Donkey Teeth! To sign up, click this rather unwieldy link that’s under this writing. Anyway, the Cristian Pache 2021 fantasy:
It’s insane how many young talents the Braves have, and maybe there’s fatigue because of that, or because Cristian Pache’s been in the prospect game for so long, even if he’s only 21. Pache started being tracked at the age of 16 by fantasy prognosticators. Knowing what we now know about Braves scouts, they were prolly tracking Pache when he was 8 years old. “I’m gonna hand you this juice box and I want to see how hard you can throw it to that man holding a mitt.” The Braves would be crazy to not start Cristian Pache from the jump in 2021 just for his defense. As we saw in the playoffs, that could mean out of the 9-hole where he hit one homer and .182 with a 16% K%. Super small sample; it was 12 games, and 22 ABs. Think it’s fair to throw that out.
His power grades out at 50, and if you saw his home run in the playoffs, he’s an easy 12 to 15 homer guy. If he fills out just a little bit, he could move into a 20-25 homer guy. Guys usually do fill out from the ages 21 to 27. “I enjoyed a few hamburgers during those years.” That’s Andruw Jones, who went through the ages 21 to 27, and became unrecognizable he filled out so much. Pache can turn on an inside pitch and power it out to left field. No problem. Whether Pache fills out to 25+ homers at some point, shouldn’t factor into redraft leagues for 2021. Don’t think he’s getting there in the next 12 months. This could be a good thing because he’s fast.
Can he steal bags? Well, can and will are different things, and Ken Williewilson is a third thing. Pache could steal 40 bags, but he might only steal 12-15 because he seems utterly confused as to when or how to steal. In Double-A, he stole eight bags and was caught 11 times. That’s legit hilarious. Does he get lost on his way to the next bag? Is he wracked with guilt because he thinks stealing is bad? Don’t know, but his ability to run fast is there, but his ability to steal bases is not. Hitting in front of Acuña, Swanson, Freeman, and the Braves aren’t going to want him running into outs. This is yet another factor of his game that could just appear, i.e., Pache could be a 30/30 guy in 2021 but is likely more of a 15/15 guy.
Finally, his contact isn’t bad — maybe a 24% strikeout rate. His BABIP will be high due to his speed. So, yeah, I don’t know why Itch thinks he might not hit .220. He looks like a .240 hitter at worst, and closer to .250-65. So, in conclusion, the bad Pache outcome in fantasy terms is Jackie Bradley Jr. The good Pache outcome is honestly too good to even say because y’all might start drafting him in the top 50 overall. Even a chance at the really good Pache outcome is likely a year away. For 2021, I’l give Cristian Pache projections of 51/14/54/.244/11 in 461 ABs.
Hello November Grey, don’t think I’ve met you before
Looking at a possible trade
15 team keep 11 Obp slg K/9 Qs on top of the normal cats, league counts batter k’s as well
Looking at keeping: 11 of D’Arnaud Olson Albies Tatis Suarez Merrifield Mondesi Cruz Buehler Maeda Ryu Greinke Hendricks MarcoGonz, Gausman
Got offered Starling Marte and Brantley for my Greinke and Ryu…what you think?
Hope all is well!
Yeah, you remember me, I was here the 1st 19 days of this month and last year at a similar time
Tough trade call, I prefer Marte
Hi Grey,
Aside from wanting to know more about Ken Williewilson, have a grade question for you.
Have an offer for his $22.75 Voit for my $2.25 Lewis. $150 budget, 15 keeper, 12 team, we start 26 players, no bench, 8×8.
Going for it next year and have Soto/Mookie/Yaz/Lewis in OF, and Bellinger at 1B currently. We start 5 OF, 2 1B. Will be some decent OF in our auctions but not much at 1B.
My keeper salary is $70 now, will be $90 of I do the trade, either way I have plenty of cap space (though doubt I’d keep Voit beyond this year vs I’d definitely plan on keeping Lewis).
Do you endorse such a trade given my circumstances? Or should I keep looking?
Ken Williewilson of the North Pennsy Williewilsons
I’d want Lewis
” Pache has been a prospect for so long …” Seriously ? Anything written about a prospect before he plays Hi-A … preferably in the Fla. State League … is jumping in too soon, with a lot of guesswork involved.
Agreed, but we still knew about him
Still some spots left in the “Super Easy to Beat Donkey Teeth” league! Who wants a piece?
Haha, I kinda want in that one too, just so I can see someone take Ohtani with their 1st pick
I know you let me come in ahead of you last year in 11th place because you were such a nice guy.
Wow, didn’t know Donkey did so well last year — well done, Donkey!
Well, he did beat one person.
Was he beat by any chance Tonkey Deeth, his top secret alias?
Drunkey Tooth.
Oh, that’s prolly not connected to him
Yeah, lotta pressure to follow up now!
Lower expectations, getting them right where you want them! Damn, Donkey’s smart–Or is this Tonkey?
Tonkey is my cousin, Honkey is my burner acct
You’re giving away the secrets today!
10 team standard 5×5 league here, 30 man rosters, we keep 8 players max heading into next season. Which 8 would you keep?
Outfielders: Trout, Grisham, Happ, S Marte, Buxton, Myers, Senzel, Duvall
Infielders: Abreu, Story, Bohm, Dozier, Taylor, Contreras, Swanson, Escobar, K Marte
Starters: Darvish, Woodruff, Wheeler, Corbin, Keller, Freeland
Relievers: Melancon, Pressly, Iglesias, Hudson, Smith, Pagan, Bass
My first pass is keep Abreu, Story, Trout, S Marte, Buxton, Darvish, Woodruff and Wheeler
Thoughts?
Abreu, Story, Trout, Darvish, Woodruff are no brainers — S. Marte, Buxton, K Marte, prolly be how I lean — but Wheeler instead of Ketel is fine too
Thanks for the feedback! I got burned by Ketel Marte last season so am hesitant to go back there. His 2019 might prove to be the proverbial one year career season.
Nah, 2020 was fluky
Ketel’s Steamer projections are sorta meh – .287 / 21 / 79 / 7 / 90 – and he also loses OF eligibility so 2B only for next season. Those numbers are good for 2B but the loss of multi-position status hurts his value.
They don’t look that bad, but forget him if you’re not into him
Understatement of the year.
Buxton over Grisham? No way!!!!
You’re right, I missed Grisham
I dont know how fair the comp is, but he reminds me of lindor, who was often linked to Vizquel(iirc) and was seen as light hitting. At least i get those vibes of Pache. Top 50 possiblity indeed
The only comp I see to Lindor is how he was considered glove first in the minors…Pache seems to have a bat, but too many Ks
Random inquiry to see how small the world is….do you a writer named Tim Struby? I don’t know his credentials but he’s mainly written for ESPN the Magazine.
Never heard of him, why?
I play poker (virtually) with him every week. He’s got some crazy stories. It was a shot in the dark, but you never know who knows who in that underground network of writers.
Ah, gotcha
What up, Grey!!
Keeper league trade, 12 team H2H. We keep 10 guys
Do I trade Plesac for Trent Grisham?
Current Roster (* Means my current keepers and i haven’t decided who my other 2 should be)
i also only have 1 pick in the 1st round and dont pick again till the 5th rd.
Olson*
Hiura*
Bo*
Moncada*
Y. Alvarez*
Betts*
Buehler*
JD*
B.Lowe
Plesac
Urias
Sixto
Paddack
Thanks
Hmm…Tough call, I think I hold
Stroman or Elieser or Mitch Keller as #6 SP?
Gary Sanchez worth a pick at about 250 or so?
Thanks!!
Stroman…sure on Gary
Razzball DCs full or are spots left? Don’t want to log in and pay and just sit and exit for a random opening.