I have been humbled this weekend by the injury genie. Of course, a genie is supposed to grant wishes, right? Well, then, mean fantasy genie, why have you taken my two breakout picks, Triston Casas and Josh Jung? If you missed it, Casas went down with a weird rib thing and had quotes like “I’m in a lot of pain” and “Give me my mommy.” The manager even said “No, he’s not okay.” Well, lemme check.
Yup, I think he’s on literally all of my teams. Godspeed and happy speedy recovery, please?
I guess it’s time to try to find some replacements. The most tired fantasy trope is the buy low deal on April 24. But of course, there are guys out there who will give up on their guys.
I’m not trying to tell you to buy low on Rafael Devers. That’s obvious. I’m gonna pass on telling you buy low on Paul Goldschmidt or Jose Abreu. They’re practically geezers. Let’s dive into some other slow starters and see what’s what.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.
Vladito was a popular fade in the offseason. He’s made the faders and haters look smart. According to the player rater, he’s a negative value on the season and ranked as the number 24 first baseman. That’s not even in the top 20! The power has not been there. The average has not been there. What’s going on?
Guerrero is one of those guys right now that you can look at Statcast and get some good old fashioned confirmation bias. If you didn’t like him, you’ll point to his measly 6 barrels. If you do like him, you’ll counter with his increased walk rate and elite exit velocity when he does make that contact.
As for me, I will buy into Vladito until I cannot anymore. That might be later this season, but again it’s only April. I will continue to ride his train and recommend a
BUY LOW
CHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRAND
This guy was the opposite of Vladdy, he was hyped up by many fantasy analysts. He has really, really, totally struggled. Am I being harsh? Hey, you try looking at a .185 batting average and .511 OPS? What in the name of Buddy Biancalana is going on here?
The player rater is crushing CES (and you should be crushing the player rater, by the way), but I took a trip to Statcast to see what they say. Basically, he’s swinging and missing a lot and not taking walks. When I played back in the day, we called that kid “someone who would get cut” or “guy who plays like Kelder.” There is talent in the bat but the approach seems terrible.
I’m not seeing anything that says this start is a fluke and will rebound. He might, I would have to watch more Reds baseball to really know, but it seems like a case of a guy who’s pressing and lost his plate approach. He was a high K/low BB guy last year so I’m guessing this is the floor. You just don’t want his floor to be AAA. He does make solid contact when he hits the ball if you’re looking for a positive.
I’m not. I’m gonna make like Elsa and
LET IT GO
CHRISTOPHER MOREL
Cub fans were all googly eyed and gaga for the start that Morel had. This has not continued. Locked into the middle of the Cubs decent lineup, Morel has dragged it down with a .205 batting average, .271 OBP, and only 3 Hr. He’s the 19th ranked 3B at the moment and is in a massive slump. How massive? His last 30 plate appearances have netted 3 hits, 0 HR, and 1 RBI. So what’s true, the first week and the excitement, or this slump?
The saving grace for Morel has been the strikeout rate. Last year was at 31%, and in slumpy months he was near 40. This year, despite his anemic stats, the K rate is at 19.6%. Improvement! The walks are staying the same as last year. Stability! But he’s not hitting the ball as hard with a reduction in barrels, exit velocity, all the hard hit metrics are down.
The player rater has him projected for .247 the rest of the way with 22 dingers. My guess is that he’ll get to those numbers, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride. There will be weeks and even months where the production is low. Then torrid stretches where the plate approach clicks and he rakes.
Have you ever owned a guy like this? It’s incredibly frustrating. He’ll be ice cold for weeks. Then he breaks out, invariably immediately after you bench him. So you miss the breakout, but put him back in. But then the cold streak comes and you don’t get him out in time.
Even Statcast can’t agree with himself about this guy. One comparison they give is Adolis Garcia. Nice! Another is Teoscar Hernandez! Also nice! Another is Jake Bauers. That’s mean! Nolan Jones is there too. He’s an eye of the beholder type of player for sure.
I’ll give him a tepid:
LET HIM GO.
I can’t see myself going out hunting a Morel signing and can’t recommend that you do the same.
Anyone else besides Bobby Dalbec you guys wanna talk about with slow starts? Let me know in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one kids!
