Not saying this is everything — it’s not, we will get to everything — but Corbin Burnes‘s last 2nd half went 3.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with a 8.4 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP. I’m sorry, you’re drafting him where? In the top 40 overall? He’s the 7th starter off the board on average? I am staggering around like Redd Foxx, clutching my heart. Tell me who’s better:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.72 ERA, 8.7 K/9 in 67 2/3 IP
Player B: Burnes’s 3.69 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP
A? Neither? They’re the same? Cool, works either way for this exercise since that’s MacKenzie Gore.
How about:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.57 ERA, 8.5 K/9 in 68 IP
Player B: Burnes
Player A? Damn, you like Edward Cabrera more than Burnes. How about this:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP
Player B: Burnes
Impossible choice? Too close? Okay, Burnes is same as Brayan Bello. How about:
Player A’s 2nd half: 2.86 ERA, 8.9 K/9 in 66 IP
Player B: Burnes
Back to siding with Player A? Okay, that was Tobias Myers. Yo, serious question, are you drafting Tobias Myers, Brayan Bello, Edward Cabrera or MacKenzie Gore anywhere near Corbin Burnes? No? Weird. How about this pitcher who actually is being drafted after Burnes: Chris Sale’s 11.3 K/9, 1.86 ERA in 67 2/3 2nd half innings or Burnes? I am howling. I am the wolf man of woofs at the moon. I don’t even want to draft Sale, but he’s going after Burnes on average? Stop it. Get help. You’re drunk. So, what can we expect from Corbin Burnes for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Okay, just went over what made him overrated, you stupid intro paragraph. So, there’s some players who I call overrated and they are for fantasy but could be okay for regular baseball. I don’t even think Burnes is going to be good for regular baseball, if being honest. His stats are awful. The DBags got Dbagged into a six-year contract for a guy who is losing stuff in every conceivable way. Last year he was in an excellent stadium and had a 2.94 ERA in 93 1/3 home innings. Good luck in your new home.
So, Corbin Burnes throws his cutter more than anything else and had a .251 BAA after .209 the year before. .251 BAA on a pitch that he threw 45% of the time is–Well, shouldn’t say he threw it as much as he threw-up that pitch. His curve was great at .200. Or was it?! Hell yeah, Mr. Reversal! His curve was .132 BAA the year before. That’s excellent, .200 is fine, but two pitches throwing 66.5% of the time and they were just a bit above average. Not the 7th best starter in baseball! His WHIFF% went down on both, his PutAway% went down on both, his wOBA went up, his SLG–his everything! The wrong way. His curve’s SLG against was .326. The previous year it was .209! He’s frankly lucky he didn’t have a 4+ ERA last year.
Counting on an ERA to tumble when a guy relies so heavily on cutter is a bit trickier than it would seem. Cutter does help keep the ball down and in the park and I’m not sure why every pitcher doesn’t throw one. With that said, Corbin Burnes’s 8.4 K/9 on the year (not just 2nd half) is reason alone to ignore him at his current draft price. He’s being drafted around guys with 10-12 K/9’s or 9 K/9 and a 1 BB/9, but Burnes is not that. He’s not even close to that. He should be drafted close to 80-100 overall not the third round. This is one of the easiest passes in fantasy baseball this year. Don’t dare draft him, Corbin Burnes after seeing his stats.
Did my comment not get to u grey
Caminero taken womp womp
Needcto grb my sp 1 in rd 7
Still left off your top 30
Roki
Ober
Schwelly
Glasgnow
Shota
Bibbee
Glasgow
Steele
Who’s your sp1 sp2
Just re re read your top 20
Its Between shota can he repeat bryce lookin sweet roki will.dodgers let him rock n roki n schwelly year 2 dies he grow to top5 arm as my sp1 selection
What your vibes now we are into spring
15 man Dynasty auction: $21 Ober, $11 Luzardo, $7 Lodolo, $8 Rasmussen, $2 Schwellenbach, $3 D. Peterson good enough to win?
Have $28 Gray, and $23 Eovaldi too but i need to cut them to draft hitting. Would you cut more? My team needs power and could go after cheaper sp too in the draft
Next draft on Saturday. Ten hitting cats so banjo guys are valued more it seems, steals and power slightly less so. Please pick top selection in each grouping. And thank you!
Mookie, Tucker, Vlad
Harper, Trea, Freeman
Acuna, Devers, Machado
M Kelly, Rodon, Schmidt
Webb, L Castillo, Shota
Tucker, Harper, Acuña, Rodon, Shota
Thank you. I know I could look at the rankings but was not sure if our league settings would change your selection. Anyway, have a good one.
Cj abrams sitting there at pick 75 have acuna n carrol was going to go jr cam
Neither makes it back to me
Grab cj?????
N get any # of it here 3b hr low ba guys
Grab cj n lose out on camunero? Crazy value ?
Think i Grab cj who 100% isnt coming back n hope to see if jr cam comes back it sets me up with massive lead on sb i can then lean on hr rest of draft???
Take CJ
Did and of course caminero gone
Grey as need my first sp then will grab 2nd with who falls to me im in rd 7 flowing with the grey method sp breath in puke breath
Shota
schwelly
Miller
Roki
Bibee
pablo
gallen
webb
Strider
jared jones
hunter brown
fried
Grayson
Glasgow
steele
3 of your top 20 left who do you like bestest
Then I have a loooooong wait can I grab speencer Strider or whomever comes back
H2H points, would you rather keep Logan Gilbert at 32 bucks or Bryce Miller at 12 bucks?
Gilbert
In a keep forever league, what are your thoughts on drafting Bubba Chandler? What do you expect from him this year and in the future? What is the earliest you would draft him if so?
NM, I saw your write up on him.
He’s in the rankings
I’m kinda new to razzball and I noticed you sometimes lightly suggest to wait on Catchers.
I’m currently in a draft and it’s round 31… Do I take my first catcher now?? Thank you.
Haha, I’d suggest taking one about 15 rounds earlier, give or take
the word hero gets thrown around a lot these days…
as the guy who finished secon in the no catcher derby, i doff my cap to you
Haha
in every draft i’m in i congratulate the last catcher drafter unless i don’t notice who it was.
Grey , draft strategy question
If i draft Soto/Vlad/Jazz whats a better fit Rooker DH only or O.Cruz?
Are they both UTIL? Cruz
Rooker would be util. Cruz would be SS/of
Go Cruz
Thank u
No problem
oak jr gonna rcl.
Awesome!
he’s in jr high so rosterbation should come very naturally
lol
I hear there’s 3 spots open in dfs anonymous. I’ve already drafted with Jamespoohbear in one league I guess I could go against oak jr
Which league is Oak Jr.? That is the puzzle to riddle out
Hi Grey! I’m looking forward to your annual comparison of your rankings vs Yahoo’s, who to target and who to avoid. I don’t think I missed it checking back. Any idea if/when you’ll be gracing us with that league winner? Thanks!
Next week
Thank you!
No problem
I have a keeper slot left in a 12 team 6×6 roto league with QS and OPS as additional cats and need to make a decision. I was pretty set on Xavier Edwards as my last guy at $1 but in listening to the 3b podcast I now feel differently about a $2 Suarez My build centers around Vlad, Judge, Gunnar, Naylor so thats pretty tight but my final options are:
X Edwards @ $1
Suarez @ $2
R Walker @ $1
Just trying to guage the best value at those costs. Would normally never keep a closer but the perice feels good.Interested in hearing your thoughts.
Go Edwards
XE gonna do some things like Don Juan Pierre…
The schmohawk posts kind of tie into my question. Would you keep Clase or Ober? I have to cut one of them based on where they ranked overall last year. I have 2 other closers. Clase was almost perfect last year with a 0.61 era, 0.66 whip. Doubtful he is that pristine again. He’s also a reliever and only provides value in certain stats. my league has 10 categories in h2h format.
Clase will give me 70 ip max. Ober 170+ Stats: w, qs, ip, k, k/9, k/bb, era, whip, saves, holds.
Thanks
Clase
I worded my question poorly. Is that cut or keep clase? Thanks
Clase top closer in baseball, gotta keep him
I love these. Coming out swinging too. That’s 4 in a row.
Thanks!
yeah, after last year I’m avoiding Mr. Burnes like the measles in Texas,
Haha
Hey Grey! Just read through the NL-only draft you and B-Don did on the CBS fantasy site. I love your team – Shota & Sonny as your 1-2 punch is a tasty and intoxicating beverage. B-Don’s team, not so much.
Re: Burnes. If he keeps getting faded and falls, I might bite in a league. But definitely not paying full price. He’s got a lot of games at Coors on tap now, and Chase Field isn’t exactly great (the 2nd highest elevation out of all the MLB ballparks, until my A’s move to Vegas).
Haha, poor BDon
Thanks! I like my team too
Here’s a strategy I’m pondering for Yahoo Public leagues 12-team. Because of the 1400 innings pitched cap, I have always targeted K/9 of 9 or higher. It has hurt my WHIP. In order to get Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Webb, Woo, Eflin, Lugo, I’m considering going after some 10/K RP late. If I had 3 of someone like Weaver, Jax, Strahm, Cade Smith, Abreu, Uceta, Estrada, the combination comes out to a stud ace. We’re talking very low WHIP, 15 wins, 300 K’s, for 180-200 innings. Plus, they could get up to 12-15 saves. I’m thinking I’d rather roster three guys for that than the guy SP who’s going to blow up my ERA/WHIP with a really bad outing or two. The risk? I have to give up a roster spot or two for these guys.
Think it’s worth a shot in a Yahoo league? For testing purposes?
I always have top MRs in my 12 team leagues….I try to have multiple if I can
Sweet. Is there a certain type you’re targeting? 10K/9 or higher. Low WHIP. Winning teams. All of the above?
I rank middle relievers in my top 500 https://razzball.com/top-500-for-2025-fantasy-baseball/
Thanks Grey for your time in writing all of these, your rankings, and coming back to answer so many questions. I actually get a lot out of reading questions and your comments. I do apologize if I have missed an answer to my question.
It looks like by your rankings, Robert Suarez or Ryan Walker will be your targets for first closer around 90-100 range. Is that correct?
Is the strategy this year to maybe get one around 100 then again 130, then SAGNOF the rest of the season?
That works for me in a deeper league…I have already drafted Suarez…In a 10 or 12 team league, you’re prolly fine 110-120 overall then load up SAGNOF, but kinda depends on what draft gives you…no reason to reach earlier than that tho
This is creepy. I was just talking to my wife about drafting Burnes. Presto, your column appears. Is that magic?
Thanks!!
Haha, it is!
Hey Grey, good stuff, as always. I need to make keeper decision by this weekend and need little help. Previously you said to keep Meadows over Trout. Is this still the case with inflammation issue that Meadows has? Thanks.
I’m waiting to hear how bad Meadows is, haven’t heard yet
Hello Grey! Here we go! I can’t believe it’s that time of year when I get to ask you for your keeper recommendations. The best tradition since the last tradition.
Please pick 8 to keep – 14 team, deep Mixed Keeper – $260 budget
Elly De La Cruz – $8
Alec Burleson – $1
Dylan Crews – $1
Jarren Duran – $8
James Wood – $1
Jasson Dominguez – $1
Christian Walker – $22
Matt McLain – $8
Shane Baz – $1
Justin Martinez – $1
Tanner Scott – $8
Not Martinez, Scott or Baz
Thank you!
No problem
it’s funny every time you comp the overdrafted by ADP pitcher to some other cheaper pitcher, it’s always a guy i like (but at that 2nd guy’s prices). for those that can’t listen for 12+ years on not drafting pitchers early yet another crumb for them to notice, YOU CAN GET GOOD PITCHERS much later (in fact direct skills comps to guys that get overdrafted)
Ha, yup!
Hey Grey! In a keep forever weekly roto league, $3 inflation per year, what do you think of either of the below trades?
1. $32 Ohtani or $8 Chourio
2. Ohtani + $4 Westburg or $7 Elly
I’m the ohtani owner + he’s obviously still very well priced. Just wondering if this is a good time to sell high in keepers since he’s unlikely to go 50/50 again once he starts pitching….
Ohtani — 2. Ohtani
Cut bait….too many injuries. He’s trying to come back from labrum surgery in 5 months. Google the recovery time for labrum surgery
That cover photo is epic!
I have to keep a rookie, and have to decide by next week. Do you think Kristian Campbell plays this year? It’s between him and Bubba Chandler, or Heston Kjerstad.
Talent w
Ha…I do think he plays, maybe 250 ABs
ADP in first 3 RCL drafts: The Schmohawks
Burnes > 34
Cole > 53
Freeman > 25
Devers > 30
You have any?
I haven’t drafted any leagues yet.
what you waiting for?
I always check near draft time if a league needs another team which I can join to make sure the draft doesn’t get postponed. I’m in FCL and Original Recipe where no date has been decided on. And, there’s only been 3 RCL drafts so far.
Fair enough!
Also waiting for March.
I’d say I wish March were longer, but I had flashbacks to 2020
and those are people who supposedly follow grey, one would think, being in razzball leagues (not the old school ones that i wish could be filled, regular RCL’s)
doubt it would change much for those that do the above regardless of grey, but rudy putting together a “what was the average finish for owners in RCL’s that drafted a pitcher earlier than x” it’d be glaringly funny probably (to the early drafted pitchers point expressly there, not the other overdrafted ADP hitters). could do a 2nd version: “average finish for any owner that drafted any of grey’s schmohawks at ADP or better (earlier picks)”
It’s possible to win RCLs drafting pitchers early. You might have to work a bit harder, but being relatively shallow and with the daily moves it does happen. In fact, last year a couple teams won their league despite drafting Strider in the first round.
right, i’m sure anything is possible over a large sample set, i’m saying in general doing that.
more than one way to skin a cat
Why skin the cat with a spoon tho
Is there? I imagine it always involves a sharp object. Who is skinning cats? Sounds like a way to get put in jail for animal cruelty.
Yeah, more than one way to skin a cat
You better cool it with all the skinning cats chatter around here. This ain’t 1950’s Poland, you could get in trouble.
Apologies! Today I did learn it meant a maneuver kids did on monkey bars
Interesting. I just googled ‘what’s the best way to skin a cat’ and got a slightly different answer. Now I’m probably in trouble too.
That was me entrapping you so you’d google it, can’t believe you fell for it
There’s always one
WOOOOOF