Not saying this is everything — it’s not, we will get to everything — but Corbin Burnes‘s last 2nd half went 3.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with a 8.4 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP. I’m sorry, you’re drafting him where? In the top 40 overall? He’s the 7th starter off the board on average? I am staggering around like Redd Foxx, clutching my heart. Tell me who’s better:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.72 ERA, 8.7 K/9 in 67 2/3 IP
Player B: Burnes’s 3.69 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP
A? Neither? They’re the same? Cool, works either way for this exercise since that’s MacKenzie Gore.
How about:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.57 ERA, 8.5 K/9 in 68 IP
Player B: Burnes
Player A? Damn, you like Edward Cabrera more than Burnes. How about this:
Player A’s 2nd half: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP
Player B: Burnes
Impossible choice? Too close? Okay, Burnes is same as Brayan Bello. How about:
Player A’s 2nd half: 2.86 ERA, 8.9 K/9 in 66 IP
Player B: Burnes
Back to siding with Player A? Okay, that was Tobias Myers. Yo, serious question, are you drafting Tobias Myers, Brayan Bello, Edward Cabrera or MacKenzie Gore anywhere near Corbin Burnes? No? Weird. How about this pitcher who actually is being drafted after Burnes: Chris Sale’s 11.3 K/9, 1.86 ERA in 67 2/3 2nd half innings or Burnes? I am howling. I am the wolf man of woofs at the moon. I don’t even want to draft Sale, but he’s going after Burnes on average? Stop it. Get help. You’re drunk. So, what can we expect from Corbin Burnes for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Okay, just went over what made him overrated, you stupid intro paragraph. So, there’s some players who I call overrated and they are for fantasy but could be okay for regular baseball. I don’t even think Burnes is going to be good for regular baseball, if being honest. His stats are awful. The DBags got Dbagged into a six-year contract for a guy who is losing stuff in every conceivable way. Last year he was in an excellent stadium and had a 2.94 ERA in 93 1/3 home innings. Good luck in your new home.
So, Corbin Burnes throws his cutter more than anything else and had a .251 BAA after .209 the year before. .251 BAA on a pitch that he threw 45% of the time is–Well, shouldn’t say he threw it as much as he threw-up that pitch. His curve was great at .200. Or was it?! Hell yeah, Mr. Reversal! His curve was .132 BAA the year before. That’s excellent, .200 is fine, but two pitches throwing 66.5% of the time and they were just a bit above average. Not the 7th best starter in baseball! His WHIFF% went down on both, his PutAway% went down on both, his wOBA went up, his SLG–his everything! The wrong way. His curve’s SLG against was .326. The previous year it was .209! He’s frankly lucky he didn’t have a 4+ ERA last year.
Counting on an ERA to tumble when a guy relies so heavily on cutter is a bit trickier than it would seem. Cutter does help keep the ball down and in the park and I’m not sure why every pitcher doesn’t throw one. With that said, Corbin Burnes’s 8.4 K/9 on the year (not just 2nd half) is reason alone to ignore him at his current draft price. He’s being drafted around guys with 10-12 K/9’s or 9 K/9 and a 1 BB/9, but Burnes is not that. He’s not even close to that. He should be drafted close to 80-100 overall not the third round. This is one of the easiest passes in fantasy baseball this year. Don’t dare draft him, Corbin Burnes after seeing his stats.
