After giving you my Luis Garcia Jr. sleeper, I felt like I had to balance out the Force. I had to regain my sleeper cred. I can’t have you out on the mean streets of Fantasy Baseball Community Forums or Fantasy Baseball subreddit and talking about how I was giving only softball sleepers. Underhanded-toss-to-babies sleepers! That’s what you said in your faux mocking tone. Well, faux mock off! This Connor Norby sleeper is getting back my bona fides. [walking like I’m pushing a shopping cart, miming putting bona fides into the cart] I’ll take that bona fide, thank you! Filling up my stamp card that is labeled “Bona Fides” that’s me! While Connor Norby isn’t a prospect, he’s young enough where I think we should stop talking about my bona fides and start talking discussing his. He was 45th overall on the Itch’s 2023 top 50 prospects. Then he briefly fell off the list last year, because (speculating) the O’s had just too many bats. Then when he was called up, I said this year, “Maybe I’ve watched too many political documentaries but I 100% thought Connor Norby was a Republican strategist. ‘My name is Connor Norby and I’m for tax reform.’ That is not him. Okay, stop me if you’ve heard this before: Orioles’ top prospect was hitting well in the minors–Stop! He had a line of 9/7/.286 in Triple-A in 206 ABs–Stop! His Ks have skyrocketed in Triple-A, and he might just be up until Jorge Mateo returns in 7-10 days…No stop? Hmm, bummer. Don’t drop anyone too crazy for Norby.” And that’s me quoting me! And predicting reality! Luckily, he was traded to the Marlins, which is where we will pick this sucker up on the other side of the segue. So, what can we expect from Connor Norby for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Connor Norby sleeper:
Well, last part first, Connor Norby is being drafted around 300th overall. El oh el oh-kay. He’s a top prospect for roughly three years straight. Everyone loves him. Then he actually gets traded to a team where he will play every day and he’s abandoned? Okay, why? Because you think he played poorly in Miami after his trade? You’re gonna wanna swallow that seltzer to avoid a spit take. Okay, ready? Good. Norby after his trade to the Marlins was great! Last year, he went 9/3/.236 in 178 ABs. Ya know, the ol’ 30-ish homer, 10-ish steal pace. Clearly, that’s never showed itself in his profile before. [intern whispers in ear] What? He went 21/10/.290 in Triple-A in 2023? Then he went 16/13/.297 in only 80 games? Guys and six girl readers, Connor Norby has 30-homer power and 10-steal speed. ACKSUALLY, he has 20-steal speed, but we’ll say 10 for MLB. Did I just say Connor Norby could go 30/20? Yeah, but I am trying not to get y’all too crazy. There’s one issue to cover.
The average. Last year it was .236 with a 33 K% and 7.7 BB%. His o-Contact% was 49.2 and his Z-Contact% was 76.5, two numbers that should be working a phone bank to field apologies for anyone who purchased him based on his .297 Triple-A average and are sending him back for the recall. Zack Gelof had a 76.3% Z-Contact, so, ya know, the worst of the worst. Elly De La Cruz had a 49.8% O-Contact, so, ya know, he’s in there with guys who are just swinging at shizz.
Norby’s Swinging Strike% was 17.8, the same as Gelof. Norby’s neutrally hitting .220 if he repeats last year, but here’s the thing: Why does he have to repeat last year? Gelof had a 28 K% in Triple-A, which is similar to Norby’s rate last year, but in 2023 in Triple-A in 138 games and 565 ABs, Norby had a 21.6 K%. That big of a sample size — that’s what she never said! — couldn’t be an accident. That tells me Connor Norby can get comfortable and lower his Ks. If he can get them to 27%, which also happens to be what Steamer is projecting him for, that gets Norby to a .240 average. Neutrally! He had some of the best contact in baseball when he did make contact. Same as Ketel Marte and Schwarber to name two. If Norby gets his Ks to where they were in 2023, he’s gonna hit .275 with 35 homers and 15 steals. That’s not just a sleeper, that’s top 20 overall numbers. At pick 300?! Sign me up everywhere. For 2025, I’ll give Connor Norby projections of 71/24/76/.239/12 in 559 ABs with a chance for much, much more.
