This is the third year I’m writing a Casey Mize rookie outlook post. Lowercase yay. Never the hoo:

Waste time with a Mizerpiece
Don’t waste time with a Mizerpiece
You should be rolling with me
You should be rolling with me, ah
You’re a real-life fantasy
You’re a real-life fantasy.

I have designated his stuff Cake by the Ocean. No one comes back from that with realistic expectations. Last person to even come close was a 1988 fantasy outlook post I did for Kevin Blankenship, who Baseball-Almanac ranks in the top 500 still living players who debuted in 1988. A worthy designation! Prior to going forward, let’s go back to what I’ve said previously, “Mize’s final Double-A numbers were 78 2/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.98 FIP. Can’t lie, that injury worries me (he had shoulder inflammation in June of 2019), and I’m afraid of ghosts and that Mize might need some major surgery before resting for 18 months and then returning to being an ace. Specifics on his stuff:  double-plus splitter with a plus heater, slider, and control.” And that’s me quoting me! Then the Tigers promoted Casey Mize this year, because they’re wont to promote prospects super fast, which is awesome, and Mize was, well, less than awesome. His stats from this year: 0-3/6.99/1.48/26 in 28 1/3 IP. That gives me a big gulp, and not like the giant drink from 7-11 that you need two hands and both feet to hold. So, what can we expect from Casey Mize for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Hey, whatever happened to Matt Manning? Tarik Skubal? Why are there so many rookie starters? Siri, that’s me asking you. “Sorry, Grey, you didn’t address me first.” That sonavab–So, Casey Mize appears healthy, which great. Also, unlike so many other rookies for redraft, Mize looks locked into the starting rotation to start 2021. That’s also terrific. “Opportunity is all the shots you take,” a famous quote by Wayne Gretzky. Unlike Kevin Blankenship, I don’t think a beating heart is all Mize will have going for him, but his previous year shows the problem with trusting rookie starters. Honestly, if they’re both in the rotation, I kinda like Luis Patino more than Casey Mize. I just need 100 innings of solid throwy-ball, I don’t need a guy that’s gonna be great in two years, which is what Mize could be. When just looking at Mize’s career minor league strikeout rates numbers being under-9, I’m slightly puzzled why we keep getting all crazy for him. The command is spectacular, even if it wasn’t last year. He looks like a 1.50 to 2 BB/9 starter, which makes it hard to imagine things going too sideways. He feels like a guy who will be a much better real world starter than a fantasy one. Like a late-era Zack Greinke. That’s not bad, mind you. I’m not out here saying Mize is gonna be Kevin Blankenship. I’m just…Well, this is gonna be the last time for some time I’m writing a post dedicated to Casey Mize (now watch him throw a no hitter in April). For 2021, I’ll give Casey Mize projections of 7-12/4.37/1.22/124 in 129 IP.

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Jayj
Jayj
1 year ago

Would you draft Josh Bell given his low adp in 2021? or are you just staying away.

Jayj
Jayj
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

One more, jesus aguilar or mcneil

TC
TC
1 year ago

Which side you like for forever keeper, standard roto?
Lindor, Hiura, and Sixto or
Albies, C.Seager, and Gallen

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

Roster so -My Team-
Pos. Player
C Daulton Varsho
1B Jose Abreu
2B
SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
3B Manny Machado
CI Anthony Rizzo
MI Didi Gregorius
UT
OF Randy Arozarena
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Mike Yastrzemski

SP
Lance Lynn
Jesus Luzardo
Marco Gonzales
Zach Davies
MacKenzie Gore
Michael Pineda

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, thanks! I see Varsho .270 12/12. I’ll take that anyday. Yeah, just adding depth and closers now…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, it’s more that he fits into my team-building pretty well. I didn’t get any genuine theives and I’m trying to avoid no-steals guys(other than Abreu) or steals guys that get little else. I kinda want 4 or 5 cats from every position I can get. I’m getting greedy, I know, but I have a discipline I’m following pretty closely on this draft…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, on that note I took a flyer on Puig at #241

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

The Latest:

BoardCurrent
Round 15
R15-2
11/11 1:32 PM
Michael PinedaP
R15-1
11/11 1:31 PM
Jordan RomanoP
Round 14
R14-15
11/11 1:31 PM
Chris Taylor2B
R14-14
11/11 1:30 PM
MacKenzie GoreP
R14-13
11/11 1:30 PM
German MarquezP(A)
R14-12
11/11 1:30 PM
Nick SenzelOF
R14-11
11/11 12:34 PM
David FletcherSS
R14-10
11/11 12:32 PM
Nathan EovaldiP
R14-9
11/11 12:11 PM
Jeimer Candelario1B
R14-8
11/11 12:11 PM
Gary SanchezC
R14-7
11/11 11:46 AM
Andres GimenezSS
R14-6
11/11 11:40 AM
Andrew McCutchenOF
R14-5
11/11 11:17 AM
Brian Anderson3B
R14-4
11/11 11:13 AM
Zach EflinP
R14-3
11/11 10:58 AM
Matt BarnesP
R14-2
11/11 10:54 AM
Cristian JavierP
R14-1
11/11 10:54 AM
Randal GrichukOF
Round 13
R13-15
11/11 10:53 AM
James McCannC
R13-14
11/11 10:46 AM
Dallas KeuchelP
R13-13
11/11 10:24 AM
J.D. Davis3B
R13-12
11/11 10:08 AM
Jared Walsh1B
R13-11
11/11 10:08 AM
Tony GonsolinP
R13-10
11/11 10:04 AM
Jean Segura2B
R13-9
11/11 9:57 AM
Austin NolaC
R13-8
11/11 9:51 AM
Aaron CivaleP(A)
R13-7
11/11 9:51 AM
Kyle SchwarberOF
R13-6
11/11 9:28 AM
Jose UrquidyP
R13-5
11/11 9:22 AM
Anthony SantanderOF(A)
R13-4
11/11 9:22 AM
Andrew BenintendiOF(A)
R13-3
11/11 9:21 AM
Nick Madrigal2B
R13-2
11/11 9:13 AM
Daulton VarshoOF
R13-1
11/11 9:13 AM
Gavin Lux2B
Round 12
R12-15
11/11 9:12 AM
Jarred KelenicOF
R12-14
11/11 9:07 AM
Zach DaviesP
R12-13
11/11 9:05 AM
Clint FrazierOF
R12-12
11/11 9:02 AM
Mike SorokaP
R12-11
11/11 9:00 AM
Travis d`ArnaudC(A)
R12-10
11/11 5:25 AM
Josh Bell1B
R12-9
11/11 1:32 AM
Max KeplerOF(A)
R12-8
11/11 12:32 AM
Franmil ReyesUT(A)
R12-7
11/11 12:32 AM
Christian Walker1B
R12-6
11/11 12:02 AM
Yasmani GrandalC(A)
R12-5
11/11 12:02 AM
Gio Urshela3B(A)
R12-4
11/11 12:02 AM
Sean MurphyC
R12-3
11/10 11:55 PM
Rhys Hoskins1B
R12-2
11/10 11:50 PM
Victor ReyesOF(A)
R12-1
11/10 10:50 PM
Jorge SolerOF(A)
Round 11
R11-15
11/10 10:50 PM
Taylor RogersP(A)
R11-14
11/10 9:50 PM
Nick SolakOF
R11-13
11/10 9:23 PM
Rafael MonteroP
R11-12
11/10 9:22 PM
Patrick CorbinP
R11-11
11/10 9:20 PM
Trevor RosenthalP
R11-10
11/10 9:19 PM
Kevin GausmanP
R11-9
11/10 9:19 PM
Tyler MahleP
R11-8
11/10 9:14 PM
Eric Hosmer1B
R11-7
11/10 9:13 PM
Charlie MortonP
R11-6
11/10 9:08 PM
Tommy EdmanOF
R11-5
11/10 9:03 PM
Wander FrancoSS
R11-4
11/10 9:02 PM
David PriceP

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, Corbin looked awful in 2020. Power is pretty cheap still, so I’ll be looking for more pitching and filling in the blanks.,,

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, I guess Franmil Blanks is value. I’m trying to pass on any low AVG guys this year. I’d like to have a .270 team BA. There are some good super late potential power options if you don’t mind low AVG, so I figure why draft them early?

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Skubal looked awful after his call up to to giving up a Home Run every time a fly ball happened., but I think he may be better long term fantasy player from a floor perspective. WHIP and ERA look like they should be very stable, and Ks dont suck.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

We are not. Only Because we need you to figure it out now.

Smitty
1 year ago

Takin a wait and see approach (as in wait until 2022) with Casey. Want to see how his stuff plays out, while acknowledging his split is a true out pitch. SP’s that have big success using the splitter/change are usually the guys that can set hitters up with a high octane heater, which Mize doesn’t have. Strikes me as a grinder type that will settle in and get IP and some W’s, but at what cost? The underlying fear is overuse of the split can lead to injury. Actually like his LH teammate better.

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

I got:

Tatis
Machado
Abreu
Lynn
Dandy Randy

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks! More to follow I hope…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Draft
BoardCurrent
Round 9
R9-4
11/10 5:38 PM
Ryan PresslyP
R9-3
11/10 5:33 PM
Matt Chapman3B
R9-2
11/10 5:33 PM
Mike YastrzemskiOF(A)
R9-1
11/10 5:33 PM
Dustin MayP
Round 8
R8-15
11/10 5:32 PM
Pablo LopezP
R8-14
11/10 5:30 PM
Anthony Rizzo1B
R8-13
11/10 5:29 PM
Chris PaddackP
R8-12
11/10 5:29 PM
Giancarlo StantonUT
R8-11
11/10 5:26 PM
Matt Olson1B
R8-10
11/10 5:14 PM
Kenley JansenP
R8-9
11/10 5:13 PM
Raisel IglesiasP
R8-8
11/10 5:02 PM
Carlos CorreaSS
R8-7
11/10 4:55 PM
Brad HandP
R8-6
11/10 4:39 PM
Paul Goldschmidt1B
R8-5
11/10 4:22 PM
Julio UriasP
R8-4
11/10 4:16 PM
James KarinchakP
R8-3
11/10 4:16 PM
Kyle HendricksP
R8-2
11/10 4:11 PM
Tommy PhamOF
R8-1
11/10 4:03 PM
Dylan BundyP
Round 7
R7-15
11/10 4:02 PM
Ke`Bryan Hayes3B
R7-14
11/10 3:53 PM
Max Muncy1B
R7-13
11/10 3:14 PM
Zack WheelerP
R7-12
11/10 3:13 PM
Eugenio Suarez3B
R7-11
11/10 2:47 PM
Dansby SwansonSS
R7-10
11/10 2:44 PM
Zack GreinkeP
R7-9
11/10 2:43 PM
Will SmithC(A)
R7-8
11/10 2:43 PM
Aroldis ChapmanP(A)
R7-7
11/10 2:43 PM
Jose Altuve2B
R7-6
11/10 2:33 PM
J.D. MartinezUT
R7-5
11/10 2:33 PM
Nelson CruzUT(A)
R7-4
11/10 1:33 PM
Michael ConfortoOF(A)
R7-3
11/10 1:33 PM
Jose BerriosP
R7-2
11/10 1:30 PM
Jesus LuzardoP
R7-1
11/10 1:12 PM
Ketel Marte2B
Round 6
R6-15
11/10 1:12 PM
Austin MeadowsOF
R6-14
11/10 1:05 PM
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.OF
R6-13
11/10 12:56 PM
Yordan AlvarezUT
R6-12
11/10 12:56 PM
Edwin DiazP(A)
R6-11
11/10 12:55 PM
Keston Hiura2B
R6-10
11/10 4:23 PM
Alec Bohm3B
R6-9
11/10 12:21 PM
Framber ValdezP
R6-8
11/10 11:50 AM
Mike ClevingerP
R6-7
11/10 11:49 AM
Nick CastellanosOF(A)
R6-6
11/10 11:49 AM
Yoan Moncada3B
R6-5
11/10 11:31 AM
Hyun Jin RyuP
R6-4
11/10 11:27 AM
Stephen StrasburgP
R6-3
11/10 11:23 AM
Jeff McNeilOF
R6-2
11/10 11:18 AM
Dominic SmithOF
R6-1
11/10 11:18 AM
Sixto SanchezP
Round 5
R5-15
11/10 11:18 AM
Ian AndersonP
R5-14
11/10 11:18 AM
Liam HendriksP
R5-13
11/10 11:05 AM
Teoscar HernandezOF
R5-12
11/10 11:03 AM
Gleyber TorresSS
R5-11
11/10 10:54 AM
Pete Alonso1B

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I do like Framber. Seeing him go 7 IP in playoffs is a good sign of confidence in his ability.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, I like Luzardo a lot, so hopefully he delivers…

Smitty
Reply to  Dave D
1 year ago

Nice haul DD!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Smitty
1 year ago

Thanks!

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

No thanks, Casey, maybe next year….

Meanwhile we’re in rd.5 and I got Randy…..

Round 5
R5-10
11/10 10:53 AM
Carlos CarrascoP
R5-9
11/10 10:51 AM
Javier BaezSS
R5-8
11/10 10:48 AM
Brandon Lowe2B
R5-7
11/10 10:37 AM
Salvador PerezC(A)
R5-6
11/10 10:37 AM
Sonny GrayP
R5-5
11/10 10:34 AM
Dinelson LametP
R5-4
11/10 10:28 AM
Tyler GlasnowP(A)
R5-3
11/10 9:28 AM
Aaron JudgeOF
R5-2
11/10 9:23 AM
Randy ArozarenaOF
R5-1
11/10 9:14 AM
Trent GrishamOF
Round 4
R4-15
11/10 9:14 AM
Luke Voit1B
R4-14
11/10 9:11 AM
Lance LynnP
R4-13
11/10 9:06 AM
Blake SnellP(A)
R4-12
11/10 8:06 AM
Max FriedP
R4-11
11/10 7:39 AM
Kyle LewisOF
R4-10
11/10 6:32 AM
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
R4-9
11/10 6:28 AM
George SpringerOF
R4-8
11/10 2:12 AM
Cavan Biggio2B
R4-7
11/10 1:57 AM
Rafael Devers3B(A)
R4-6
11/10 1:57 AM
Eloy JimenezOF(A)
R4-5
11/10 1:57 AM
Zach PlesacP(A)
R4-4
11/10 1:57 AM
Starling MarteOF(A)
R4-3
11/10 1:57 AM
Corbin BurnesP(A)
R4-2
11/10 12:57 AM
Josh HaderP
R4-1
11/10 12:46 AM
Anthony Rendon3B(A)
Round 3
R3-15
11/10 12:46 AM
Dylan MooreOF(A)
R3-14
11/9 11:46 PM
Marcell OzunaOF
R3-13
11/9 11:35 PM
Zac GallenP
R3-12
11/9 11:19 PM
Kenta MaedaP
R3-11
11/9 11:12 PM
Tim AndersonSS
R3-10
11/9 11:11 PM
Xander BogaertsSS
R3-9
11/9 11:08 PM
Whit MerrifieldOF
R3-8
11/9 11:06 PM
Nolan Arenado3B
R3-7
11/9 11:03 PM
J.T. RealmutoC
R3-6
11/9 10:54 PM
Ozzie Albies2B
R3-5
11/9 10:53 PM
Brandon WoodruffP
R3-4
11/9 10:44 PM
DJ LeMahieu2B(A)
R3-3
11/9 10:44 PM
Clayton KershawP
R3-2
11/9 10:28 PM
Jose Abreu1B
R3-1
11/9 10:12 PM
Kyle TuckerOF
Round 2
R2-15
11/9 10:11 PM
Jack FlahertyP
R2-14
11/9 9:53 PM
Manny Machado3B
R2-13
11/9 9:52 PM
Max ScherzerP(A)
R2-12
11/9 9:52 PM
Alex Bregman3B
R2-11
11/9 9:51 PM
Luis CastilloP
R2-10
11/9 9:36 PM
Luis RobertOF
R2-9
11/9 9:32 PM
Adalberto MondesiSS
R2-8
11/9 9:10 PM
Aaron NolaP
R2-7
11/9 9:09 PM
Walker BuehlerP
R2-6
11/9 9:09 PM
Lucas GiolitoP
R2-5
11/9 9:06 PM
Freddie Freeman1B
R2-4
11/9 9:03 PM
Yu DarvishP
R2-3
11/9 8:58 PM
Francisco LindorSS
R2-2
11/9 8:55 PM
Bryce HarperOF
R2-1
11/9 8:55 PM
Corey SeagerSS
Round 1
R1-15
11/9 8:54 PM
Bo BichetteSS
R1-14
11/9 8:54 PM
Trevor BauerP
R1-13
11/9 8:48 PM
Christian YelichOF
R1-12
11/9 8:47 PM
Cody BellingerOF
R1-11
11/9 8:47 PM
Mike TroutOF
R1-10
11/9 8:45 PM
Trevor StorySS
R1-9
11/9 8:44 PM
Jacob deGromP
R1-8
11/9 8:44 PM
Jose Ramirez3B
R1-7
11/9 7:48 PM
Gerrit ColeP
R1-6
11/9 7:47 PM
Shane BieberP
R1-5
11/9 7:36 PM
Juan SotoOF
R1-4
11/9 6:41 PM
Trea TurnerSS
R1-3
11/9 6:41 PM
Mookie BettsOF
R1-2
11/9 6:34 PM
Fernando Tatis Jr.SS
R1-1
11/9 6:34 PM
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

So far, do good I think. Sixto and I. Anderson went 75/76 overall, ahead of Ryu, Berrios, Stras.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, totally. There’s no way Sixto or Ian throw 150+ innings. Gotta take those other guys there.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Roster now

3.Jose Abreu 1.Fernando Tatis Jr.
2.Manny Machado 8. Anthony Rizzo

5.Randy Arozarena
6.Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
9.Mike Yastrzemski

4.Lance Lynn
7.Jesus Luzardo

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Ha! Not bad, huh? The real work starts round ten. I’ll need more arms eventually…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Well, I took one pitcher (Marco at #149). I balked at Gausman because I could not pass on DIDi….

Draft
BoardCurrent
Round 11
R11-3
11/10 8:56 PM
Joey GalloOF
R11-2
11/10 8:49 PM
Didi GregoriusSS
R11-1
11/10 8:40 PM
Nick AndersonP
Round 10
R10-15
11/10 8:40 PM
Kris Bryant3B
R10-14
11/10 8:24 PM
Marco GonzalesP
R10-13
11/10 8:23 PM
Marcus SemienSS
R10-12
11/10 8:22 PM
Sandy AlcantaraP
R10-11
11/10 8:07 PM
Triston McKenzieP
R10-10
11/10 8:01 PM
Christian VazquezC
R10-9
11/10 7:55 PM
Michael BrantleyOF
R10-8
11/10 7:53 PM
Alex ColomeP
R10-7
11/10 7:38 PM
Ian HappOF
R10-6
11/10 7:28 PM
Victor RoblesOF
R10-5
11/10 7:26 PM
Alex VerdugoOF
R10-4
11/10 7:20 PM
Dylan CarlsonOF
R10-3
11/10 7:20 PM
Wil MyersOF
R10-2
11/10 7:19 PM
Jake Cronenworth2B
R10-1
11/10 7:03 PM
Devin WilliamsP
Round 9
R9-15
11/10 7:03 PM
Ryan MountcastleOF
R9-14
11/10 6:59 PM
Byron BuxtonOF
R9-13
11/10 6:56 PM
Mike Moustakas2B
R9-12
11/10 6:51 PM
Jonathan VillarSS
R9-11
11/10 6:44 PM
Frankie MontasP
R9-10
11/10 6:42 PM
Willson ContrerasC
R9-9
11/10 6:37 PM
Lance McCullers Jr.P
R9-8
11/10 6:27 PM
Joe MusgroveP
R9-7
11/10 6:26 PM
Eddie RosarioOF
R9-6
11/10 6:23 PM
Charlie BlackmonOF
R9-5
11/10 6:23 PM
Ramon LaureanoOF

Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
1 year ago

Yup yup yup

I drafted Mize as a dynasty prospect in his draft year and held my nose doing so. Despite the mediocre stats, I could not walk away from that splitter. This is the kind of player who you want to fail on your team, not your competition. That splitter could make him amazing… but if the splitter doesnt come through he could stink.

Jake Crouse
Jake Crouse
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

There was absolutely no reason to be writing a ‘Rookie Fantasy Outlook’ on Casey Mize prior to 2020. You guys always get ahead of yourself when it comes to prospects.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

I hate to rain on your parade, but I have this feeling Casey Mize and Doc Andrews are going to be friends before years end.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Whos Doc Antle?

Also thoughts on Jared Walsh for 2021, just dropped in my league, had soil #’s in the short season.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Cut
Morejon
Odorozzi
Justin Turner
Verlander
Jackson Rutledge
Jackson Kowar

for Walsh

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

ok good man, thanks