Here’s a post we didn’t think we’d be reading last year at this time, huh?  What’s next, a Robbie Ray sleeper post?  Actually… Okay, will save that for another day.  Last year, was a lost year for Carlos Martinez.  He dealt with a myriad of injuries.  By the way, Myriad is a great name for a cult.  Just throwing it out there in case any readers fancy themselves the next Bo and/or Peep of Heaven’s Gate.  Or Myriad could be a 60-year-old Jewish woman.  “Myriad, you know I can’t have lactose!”  Any hoo!  Carlos Martinez’s injuries began as oblique than progressed to straight bleak with shoulder issues.  At one point, he was hit by a screamin’ meemie comebacker off his chest that sent him for x-rays.  Carlos Martinez was the refrigerator and injuries were the magnets.  By the by, if you want to use Screamin’ Meemie as your cult name, I’m not hating on that either.  So, the big question is will Carlos Martinez be able to bounce back from his dreadful year and return to ace status.  So, what can we expect from Carlos Martinez for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

I duped you.  I mean, you were wholly duped.  You were so duped, you don’t even know how duped you were or how you were duped.  I said Carlos Martinez had a lost year and could he bounce back from his dreadful year.  Guess what you Screamin’ Meemies of the Myriad Earth Tribesmen?  Carlos Martinez wasn’t bad last year.  I just snapped you in half.  I broke you off with a little, “What now?” He had a 3.11 ERA.  Shizz, doode, have you seen some ERAs that are passing as good nowadays?  I know ERA is not the best barometer of solid pitching, but the post isn’t over yet, so chillax!  His velocity was down overall last year (95 to 93 MPH).  But let’s dig in on that, because his K/9 was down from the previous year.  He went down early in the year (May 8th thru June 5th) with something oblique.  Prior to that, his fastball was in the 90-93 range.  Dragging down his season long numbers because when he was finally healthy in August, his velocity was between 94-96.  His slider velocity was also down two miles per hour early in the year and saw that bounce back too.  Same with the cutter.  All of his pitches were off anywhere from two to three miles per hour early on.  After he returned in August, all his pitches were back.  In the 1st half, his K/9 was 8.6; in the 2nd half, it was 9.6.  Of course, I realize the jump in stuff in the 2nd half coincided with him being used as a reliever vs. a starter.  Also, shoulder injuries are scarier than Bird Box, I get it.  Or maybe, just maybe, he was working his way back and he’s fine now.  Every time a starter goes down with shoulder tightness an angel doesn’t get his wings or The Sciosciapath wouldn’t have been asked to retire.  Shoulder tightness doesn’t have to end careers either.  He just turned 27, and, prior to last year, he averaged 200 innings the previous two years.  Maybe last year was simply a nice break for a guy who was being overworked.  Wouldn’t you prefer a starter who threw less than 120 IP last year but has a history of being an ace than a guy who has never thrown 200 IP before?  I’m farting in your general direction, James Paxton.  Of course, all of this would be moot if Carlos Martinez was being drafted anywhere near an ace, but I’ve seen him go as late as 150th overall.  There’s insane value at that point.  Insane like being a Screamin’ Meemie in the Myriad cult and not wanting a hand-me-down earth skin.  For 2019, I’ll give Carlos Martinez the projections of 12-9/3.42/1.26/182 in 187 IP with a chance for more.

  1. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    Hey man, Bird Box was alright scary in the first act. Would have been better with a few more years to forget The Happening. Too bad the movie got a shoulder injury as it neared the middle… and then became a huge metaphor for motherhood…

    You’ve convinced me, I’ll draft Carlos Martinez, not spoopy leaves.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Fanciful Basesball: I didn’t now anything about Bird Box and A Quiet Place and watched Bird Box on Friday and Quiet on Saturday, and I didn’t realize I was doing a theme weekend of the see no evil, hear no evil monkeys… Quiet Place was much better too

  2. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum says:
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    Thanks Grey!

    Looking forward to official ranks coming soon. Is that next week? Please?!?

  3. Dave D says:
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    And just hope he does not assault anyone, drink and drive, etc.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dave D: It would make a good resolution!

  4. DonnieB says:
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    I see him drafted 90-110 generally over 5 drafts. How high would you take him and feel you still got a bargain? I like him. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @DonnieB: I’ll have to see where I end up ranking him, prolly about 75-90

      • bigbear says:
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        @Grey:Ah, I’m becoming a Grey drone! When I started my response, you hadn’t posted yet.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, I have tunnelled into your psyche

    • bigbear says:
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      @DonnieB: “If healthy”, C-Mart has top 10-15 SP upside (though I don’t expect that). But #2 SP numbers is a legit expectation.

      Where are guys like Hamels, Porcello, and Happ being drafted? I’d take Martinez ahead of any of them. What about Grienke? I wouldn’t be shocked if C-Mart is they have similar stats in 2019.

      90-110 is more than reasonable. I’d say around #75-80 is even fine. In a 12 team format, you have 6-7 of your core contributors and you’re starting to look for upside type players.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Well put, bigbear! Emoji

  5. David Cray says:
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    The link takes one to the wrong C. Martinez unless the Atlanta one has taken on Ohtani-like qualities.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @David Cray: Weird, haven’t seen that before… Will look into it

  6. Chris says:
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    Urias. Leody Tavares Kyle Lewis or Vlad jr.
    Dynasty league Urias is under a great contract

      • Chris says:
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        @Grey: what’s a good trade target?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Can you go to my newest post? I don’t know what this is regarding

  7. bigbear says:
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    C-Mart – I drafted, DL’d, dropped, picked him up, dropped him again, then SAGNOF! Looking at his 2018 game log, he really only had 1 terrible month (June). July wasn’t great either (but maybe/hopefully he was learning to pitch with not his best stuff). Sounds like a solid rebound candidate. ESPN has him ranked #38 SP. With mid-3 ERA and 180ish K potential, that’s easily a #2 floor. Plus a legit shot at a top 10 SP. He’s the type of guy that can move up a lot if he has a strong spring.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @bigbear: Yeah, agreed… #38 SP is why I think he has value in his draft spot

  8. Espn writer looking for advice says:
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    So I am in a OBP Dynasty league. I split with another guy who is trying to get me to buy and trade for Renato Nunez 3rd Orioles as a gap filler , maybe starter at 3rd.

    Any take on this Mr. Grey?

      • Espn writer looking for advice says:
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        @Grey:

        Guy, we have been talking to wants D Price.

        Not that I wouldn’t move Price, just have no clue of Renato upside/value/ worth?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not worth Price — Renato is around the 25th best 3rd basemen

        • bigbear says:
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          @Espn writer looking for advice: I think Price is a little steep. But Renato seems to be a Matt Olson-lite with less R, RBI, and BB’s. At this point he’ll probably be the #4/5 hitter before/behind Trumbo. He may flirt with 25-30 HR here/there (especially in Camden). But he’s not scoring/driving in a ton. And he’s not going to hit .275. Probably around .250-.260ish.

  9. Hometown Heroes says:
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    12 team AL only keeper league. Trade Judge ($16 3 years remaining) and some stiffs for Matt Chapman($16 3 yrs), Gleyber Torres ($1 2 years) and Gary Sanchez ($16 2 years). Love Judge but getting these 3 in an AL league seems too good to pass up. What are your thoughts? Thanks again!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, agreed, seems solid

  10. Hometown Heroes says:
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    12 team AL only keeper league. I trade Judge($16 3 yrs remaining) and some stiffs for Matt Chapman ($16 3 yrs), Gleybar Torres($1 2 yrs) and Gary Sanchez ($16 2 yrs). I love Judge but I can’t pass that up right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Answered above

  11. Curious George Springer says:
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    Good morning, and happy new year!

    I’m starting to ponder my keepers for 2019 in my home league, and figured a handsome mustachioed gent like yourself would like nothing better than to spend his NYE helping a random over-the-internet monkey friend out.

    League settings: 12 tm mixed, 30-man rosters, keep 10 players. R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG/IP, QS, Sv+Hld, K/9, ERA, WHIP. players go up 3 rounds/year

    Here are the guys I’m definitely keeping: (round in parenthesis)
    Springer (13)
    Freeman (14)
    Sanchez (15)
    Trout (17)
    Flaherty (23)
    Albies (26)
    Mondesi (30)
    [that’s 6 hitters and 1 pitcher so far]

    The other options I have (need to pick 3 from below):
    Berrios (2)
    Clevinger (9)
    Justin Turner (12)
    Castellanos (12)
    Rodon (22)
    Michael Kopech (24)
    Joshua James (30)
    Amed Rosario (30)
    Keston Hiura (30)

    I’m leaning toward Clevinger, James, and Turner. It’s hard to throw Kopech back given that he could be a stud for a long time, but I think I can prob draft him in that area if I want to stash him on the DL. Do you agree with these three? Appreciate your help!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy new year! You watch Bird Box? Don’t, it’s terrible

      Clevinger, Turner, then toss up… I’d prolly go Castellanos, but maybe James…If the Astros sign another starter, this might be moot

      • Curious George Springer says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! Looks like my keepers will be a bit like last year, heavy on hitting and figure out the pitching (LY I kept 10 hitters and finished 2nd)

        Haven’t seen Bird Box (I have two small kids, so the only movie I’ve seen recently was Spiderman, which was not bad, TBH), but I feel like all I am getting are recommendations not to watch movies RN. My dad recently told me he walked out on “The Favourite,” though I was sort of surprised a septuagenarian went to see that one.

        Have you seen the Frontrunner? I’m reading the book RN, so will probably watch that one once I’ve finished reading.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, The Favourite was top 5 for me this year, I loved it… Me and your pops do not see eye to eye… Haven’t watched The Frontrunner… We watched 8th Grade last night, it was decent… Prolly watch Green Book tonight… We’re going through our screeners right now…

  12. SteveO says:
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    2 Keeper question….Gennett or Haniger?

    Also I can keep 4..
    Lindor – $27
    Bellinger- $5
    Gennett-$3
    Torres-$5
    Hanniger-$3
    Betts -$40

    I’m debating whether to go all cheap on Bell, Gennett, Torres and Hanniger or if I should keep 4 and hang on to maybe Lindor or Betts. Our league doesnt go over $50 for the top player.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Scooter

      Lindor, Bellinger, Gleyber, Betts

  13. The Great Knoche says:
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    So here’s a related question with Martinez going back to rotation and Miller coming to town.

    Who closes? Hicks or Miller?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think Hicks and Miller are going to be around 60/40 as closer… It’s not going to be clearcut is my guess

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Grey: Bummer. Where’s the Glasnow Sleeper post?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s coming…

  14. Squat Cobblers says:
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    Good stuff yer Grey’se!
    Would love a bounce back for me Car-Mart!

    If you could only pick 4 stats based on previous year(s) to evaluate SPs, what would they be?

    K-BB%
    K/9
    XFIP
    SwStr%
    Hard%
    Soft%
    Babip
    LOB%
    others?

    Thanks Grey!

    • Curious George Springer says:
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      @Squat Cobblers: I don’t think about it the way you’ve phrased it, but I really like looking at SwStr% and compare it to K/9. If you see guys who are toward the top in SwStr%, but not toward the top in K/9, you look more closely at them, as they might be well-positioned to break out and get more Ks.

      K%-BB% is one of Grey’s favorites. if a guy has a K%-BB% of 6 or more he’s probably an ace.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      K-BB, K/9, xFIP and SwStr

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh, agree with CGS

  15. Joe Shmoe says:
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    Happy New Year Mr. Grey,
    Getting nervous that Jan.3 deadline is coming for Kikuchi. I have heard nothing since he was posted. Do you think this guy is in the majors this year? Sucks if he stays in Japan.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think he gets posted, everyone could use pitching… Happy New Year!

  16. Peacecoast says:
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    HNY Grey!
    Just got back was up in Canada skiing last week.
    How is the new digs?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Digging it! See what I did there?

      Happy New Year!

  17. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    hope you had great holidays and a happy new year boss,got a tough decision on a ten team keep 6 5×5 obp and wins $300 payroll
    Acuna=25
    Vlad Jr=5
    Soto=5
    Hoskins=10
    Betts=25
    Merrifield=18
    Suarez=7
    Turner=15
    bauer=8
    Buehler=5
    Corbin=5
    Kluber=33
    Morton=6
    already throwing Altuve back at 42 and cruz at 30
    hate keeping no pitchers at these prices but dont see not keeping 6 hitters,thanks

    • AL KOHOLIC says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: stikeouts against hitters also

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You too, AL! Happy New Year!

      So many great keepers, prolly keep Bauer over Merrifield or Eugenio…Corbin and Buehler are in running too:

      Acuna=25
      Vlad Jr=5
      Soto=5
      Hoskins=10
      Betts=25
      Bauer

      • AL KOHOLIC says:
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        @Grey: awesome thanks happy new year

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Happy New Year, AL!

  18. Big Ticket says:
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    Dynasty startup draft coming soon. Standard roto, except obp. Nimmo is tough for me to place. Is he top 50 for this draft?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He is not

      • Big Ticket says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey – happy new year!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Happy New Year!

  19. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Happy New Year, Grey. Hope it is filled with many good draft picks. Agree on C Mart. My guess is he if he appears healthy in Spring Training his draft slot rises to where he is less value. Fingers crossed that doesnt happen.
    On another note, did you finish Escape at Dannemora? Overall a pretty solid series and as truthful as possible. As I mentioned I’m from upstate NY. In fact my cousin is a CO at the maxi in Malone near to where they got em. Everybody pulled duty at some point during the search. My daughter is a forest ranger in the Adirondacks. They were pulled. That is tough terrain. I don’t think the last episode even does it justice what those guys most have experienced. They escaped at the hight of black fly season- nasty biting buggers that will drive a person mad.
    Enjoy New Years. Looking forward to future posts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year!

      I finished the series, and overall I really loved it, but I wasn’t that crazy about the final episode… Somehow at 100 minutes it felt bloated and not long enough, not sure how they managed that… I really had no idea anything about the story, it was fascinating, and I enjoyed the jump back in time in the penultimate episode, but wish the finale was like two or three episodes… They needed to show more….

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: Agree. Episode 6 was essential to keep us from sympathizing. A lot of what Stiller used came from Sweat either directly or indirectly and I think of any of them he is the most sympathetic character. Coincidence?
        I also don’t know much about Lyle but he seems a little bit much although from what I’ve read he is standing by Tilly.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I thought Lyle was great (as a character, bit loopy as actual human)… Yeah, episode 6 might’ve came a bit late in arc of show, but at least it came, I was waiting for them to be actual bad guys… The final episode felt a bit like all dramatic license, which could be true since how much does anyone know what went on out there with them…

          • Sweatpants Nation says:
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            @Grey: Yeah, not much is known other than forensic evidence. Matt really did crap the bathroom (it was his DNA) and he really did shoot at the RV. Most of it comes from Sweat. I remember one line after the capture. “They showed signs of being in the mountains.” Matt should never have had the water. It can give you giardia, or, beaver fever as it’s called. Really bad runs and eventually leads to dehydration. zit can be a long, slow killer.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Wow, crazy… Yeah, I figured he shat the bathroom, otherwise it would’ve been weird as hell to put that in the story, but something about that final episode just didn’t contact like the 1st six… Oh well…

  20. Crime Dog says:
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    All I keep thinking about with rankings on the horizon was last year how much success you brought me with your ambitious Trevor Bauer ranking. I’m hoping you have another trick up your sleeve like that for us!

    • Crime Dog says:
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      @Crime Dog: glasnow kinda fits the mold although maybe a bit riskier than Bauer was at this point last year

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yeah, I like Glasnow, but he’s nowhere near where Bauer was last year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I hope so too!

Comments are closed.