Hehe, this post sucks.  It’s gonna suck writing it, and it’s gonna suck reading it.  Luckily, most of you schmohawks skip right to the comments to ask me about your teams.  This post sucks, because Brett Lawrie has been around more blocks than the skeezehead that you dated briefly after your marriage fell apart.  Brett Lawrie is just hot garbage, and there’s a pending lawsuit by actual hot garbage to fine anyone seen calling Lawrie hot garbage, so I’m going to have to lawyer up.  Let’s count the ways that Lawrie colossally sucks dog balls.  He came up in 2011 and hit 9 homers and stole 7 bases after hitting 18 homers and stealing 13 bases in Triple-A.  Looked prime to be a superstar.  Then 2012 happened (11 HRs, 13 SBs, .273) and he looked less primed for a breakout and more like a guy that needed to rebound from a sophomore slump in 2013.  Then 2013 happened (11 HRs, 9 SBs, .254) and he looked like he fell in love with ‘having 11 homers.’  Lawrie and 11 homers sitting in a tree K-I-S-S-I-N-G.  That’s sweet and all, but get a room with 11 homers if you love it so much.  Whatever, he was still young and there was always 2014.  In 2014, he hit 12 HRs, and 11 homers suddenly got jealous.  The Blue Jays said love, peace and hair grease and the documentary about who will be the A’s 2015 reclamation project got a subject to follow.  With Lawrie’s career thus far too depressing for Werner Herzog, the documentary never happened, but Lawrie did happen, slightly…Okay, at least he didn’t hit 11 or 12 homers.  He hit 16 homers, stole 5 bases and hit .260.  Yunel Escobar yawns in the general direction of those numbers, but what if Lawrie has more upside for next year?  I mean, he is only going to be 26 years old in 2016.  Anyway, what can we expect from Brett Lawrie for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

There’s some worrisome trends for Lawrie coming off of last year, which is always a fun way to get into why he’s a sleeper.  Hey, I’m just trying to get the bad shizz out of the way.  He had his highest strikeout rate last year while chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone than ever before.  Hey, he’s more aggressive; that’s a positive spin.  Um, yeah, but he also swung at less pitches inside the strike zone.  So it’s not aggressive as much as he wasn’t swinging at the right pitches.  Maybe this is because it was his first full-time job that he didn’t Mr. Bungle with a slightly too aggressive “Hey, watch me run into a wall” injury.  Maybe Beane pulled him aside and said, “B.L., I’m trying to get a sequel of Moneyball going where we completely abandon OBP, so swing at everything, you doofus.”  I don’t know, but Lawrie once had a .400+ OBP in the minors, and a .373 OBP in the majors, and had a .299 OBP last year.  That’s not good.  Thankfully, there are some good things.  His line drive rate went up last year, which is good.  He’s pulling the ball and going to center more and cutting back on opposite field hits.  Opposite field in O.co would’ve been death, so this is another good sign.  He’s hitting smarter.  He’s also hitting further.  In 2013, Lawrie hit his homers on average 395 feet; last year, he hit them 405 feet, which is tied with Miguel Cabrera.  Lawrie was top ten for infield hits, which feels slightly fluky, but it does show something.  For a guy that once had 30 steals in one year in the minors, he still has speed.  Anecdotally, Lawrie feels to me like a guy where everything came easy.  I mean, at 21 years old, he destroyed Triple-A.  Then, due to injuries and major league pitching, he was humbled.  This humbling is less embarrassing than The Iron Sheik humbling him, but no less effective.  Now, almost five years later, Lawrie is coming off his best season, and his confidence must be growing.  Finally, he’s moving to Cellular.  Last year, it ranked 8th for homers; O.co was 27th.  Regularly, O.co is bottom five for all parks in homers; Cellular is almost always top ten.  Some years, it’s top five.  I don’t think we’re going to see a bump all the way to 25 homers, but a 20/15 season feels very possible.  For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 71/20/82/.264/14 with upside for more.

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Do these go from better to worse? Like are these sleepers going to be more sleepy or are they going to wake you up with the potential value of such a pick as a sleeper? Do you get me?

    In short, I got everything I need from this sleeper article. Thanks, man.

    “Lawrie is tied with Miguel Cabrera.” And that’s me quoting Grey!! Haha, I know that’s not even me paraphrasing Grey. You win.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Nah, I actually like this one, props to November Grey who wrote it!

  2. Wilson says:
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    Odor or Lawrie for 2B?

    • Eric says:
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      @Wilson: I would take both Rougned Odor and regular odor over Lawrie for 2b

      • DrEasy says:
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        @Grey: I imagine Odor will go way earlier in drafts though, no? If Lawrie’s available two rounds later (will he? I have no idea), isn’t he the better value?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d imagine Odor will go a good 50 picks before, if not more

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          So, yes, Lawrie could be better value

  3. blah blah blah says:
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    Lawrie is a bum! Literally a sleeper and will forever be sleeping. No hope, now lets get this offseason moving, Im bored!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

  4. Shaggy says:
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    Sigh…today must be Lawrie Day.

    Better keeper…Cron or Lawrie? Leaning towards Cron in hopes that the Sciosciapath receives new meds.

  5. Rudy says:
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    I think we’ll still be reading Brett Lawrie sleeper posts in 2025 !
    I think I will be targeting him late this year though. Good right up Grey!
    Looking forward to January Grey…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rudy: Ha, prolly true

  6. Rotoraven says:
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    Hey I read 99% of all your shizz!

    • Rotoraven says:
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      (Luvdarooks)

  7. Big Al says:
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    Oh wow, I just had a nightmare that I was married with a house and a crappy desk job and all kinds of responsibilities…and that you just wrote a sleeper post about Brett Lawrie! That’s ridiculous, Lawrie just came up last year and broke out and he’s anything but a sleeper! Silly Grey! Thank goodness that it’s just 2012 and I’m single and everything is awesome.

  8. Alcibiades Escobar says:
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    Thanks for the writeup Grey. To me, Lawrie seems like a late-round pick you immediately regret and end up cutting a week into the season. The come June you’re really pissed because the guy after you picked a top 20 SP. Still, you’ve given me something to think about.

    Allow me to do my mid-offseason roster inquiry. I’m coming off a very disappointing season (finished 7th and missed the playoffs) but I have too many interesting players and need to decide who to keep. It a 10-team 6×6 league H2H (add OBP and Holds). I can keep five guys, no cost attached. Here is the (way too long) list:

    Schwarber
    Goldy
    Rendon
    Machado
    Bogaerts
    Yelich
    Buxton
    Betts
    Dickerson
    Puig
    JoFer

    Gold, Betts, and Machado are no-brainers. Who are your other two? I can also just keep three and get two supplemental picks before the 1st round, which is usually the smart thing to do in my league. Thanks for the advice Grey. Looking forward to the rankings.

      • Alcibiades Escobar says:
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        Machado is a SS in my league.

        I was leaning toward Xander, too, though Dickerson’s foot problems worry me.

        Does JoFer come close to my Myspace top 5? I’m a bit crazy for him.

        Thanks Grey!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Meh, Jo-Fer’s great, but it’s a ten team league, don’t see the point

  9. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Interesting debate I’ve been having with a few of the other Razzball writers, and some of my friends.

    For 2016 Matt Moore or Hyun Jin Ryu. Obviously big question marks with both.

    Moore rattled off four good starts against some tough lineups in his last six after being promoted back to Rays late in the season.

    Ryu’s shoulder injury is obviously worrisome, but I don’t expect it to end his career like Brandon Webb. Still very risky.

    Who you got and why?

    • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: Moore mystifies me, Grey had me all in on Moore in 2013, but the dude just never really figured it out. Player # 1 – career milb numbers – 12.5 k/9, 3.7 bb/9, 6.4 hits/9, 0.5 hr/9, 2.74 era. Player # 2 – career milb numbers – 11.4 k/9, 3,7 k/9, 6.4 hits/9, 0.4 hr/9, 2.46 era. Nearly identical. Player number 1 is Matt Moore, player #2 is Kershaw. Granted, Kersh daddy was doing this at a younger age, and stats ain’t everything, but what happened to Moore????? Where did all those K’s go? Why did Kersh figure out his control and Moore didn’t? I got questions!

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: Yeah I’m hoping the late season Moore was him finally settling after TJ and maybe figuring things out a bit.

        I think I’m still taking Ryu, just based off the track record, but those shoulder injuries are scary. The positive is Ryu just had labrum surgery and no rotater cuff.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: Can I say neither? I’ll take Ryu, better league, better track record, better team

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: No damn it! You have to take one or the world ends!

        I agree and I went Ryu too, if he can get back to who he was it’s a no brainer.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A no brainer — that’s my specialty!

  10. Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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    I’m digging the Lawrie-ness, another guy I was all-in for 2013. The only thing keeping me skeptical is the 28 walks 144 strikeouts hideousness, but 20/10/.250 seems like it is a certainty if he stays healthy, and that’s plenty tasty

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, 20/10/.250 really is that different from Hosmer

  11. Caitlyn Jenners Penis says:
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    Arrieta coming off a monster season but have an offer on the table I am considering; Giolito, Glasnow and either Odorizzi or Corbin for Arrieta. Seems like a no brainer, but still expect Arrieta to be better than the 2 big leaguers, and if he is offering up his minor leaguers I may be able to swing a different trade not involving Arrieta to get them now or before they get called up. And which MLB arm would you prefer in a keeper

    thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No brainer for Arrieta

  12. Malicious Phenom says:
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    Brett Lawrie is a just another wanna be tough guy. He needs to stop swinging for the fences and just hit the damn ball, get on base and run!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He does seem like a real-life douche… He posts every day about how vertical he can leap

  13. J-FOH says:
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    Every time I see Lawrie I think of how capozzi would correct you.”Grey it’s pronounced LOWWWREEEEEE”

  14. Yescheese says:
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    If only red bull worked as an amphetamine! Imagine Lawrie then!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He does appear to have wings in some of his videos

      • Yescheese says:
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        @Grey: welcome, googlers of Redbull + Amphetamine + Lawrie’s Salt

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Random Googler, “I thought I felt a spike in my heart rate after eating that steak.”

  15. Regan says:
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    Lawrie eh? I can see the case for most of the numbers but the 14 SB seems kinda crazy. For a guy that only had 5 SB last year and was caught 2x in 562 AB. In 14 he had 0 in 260AB. In 13 he was 9/5 and in 12 he was 13/8. Seems like he’s going in the wrong direction but then again aren’t we all.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s young and fast, it’s optimistic but he can do it easily

  16. JP says:
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    Gret-totally off topic but your thoughts if you don’t mind. 13 team dynasty roto 6×6. R, RBI, HR, OBP, AVG, and SB. Which side do you prefer d’Arnaud & Braun or Conforto & Piscotty? Is it close? Thank you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Braun, could be close by the end of this year

      • JP says:
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        @Grey: Grey-I would be receiving Conforto and Piscotty.I can keep 8 active majors and have about 12 options. The current owner of Piscotty and Conforto did not activate them last year so if I acquire them it does not affect the 8 keepers. If I read into your answer a little and given this extra info I would guess that you would say that I am getting a decent or reasonable return. Correct?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s totally reasonable, you’re on the lesser side right now, but that could change as of this year

          • JP says:
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            @Grey: Thank you for confirming that I am not crazy now if my wife only understood me like you do………Merry Christmas Grey

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha, no problem… You too!

        • James says:
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          @JP:

          This is not really a 2 for 2 deal, it becomes a 2 minor leaguers plus the 2 extra mlb guys you get to keep for braun and D’Arnund…

          If that is the case, If your 2 extra guys are pretty decent, this would be a solid move.

  17. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    I have a logjam in my outfield

    Jose Bautista (TOR)
    Lorenzo Cain (KC)
    Shin-soo Choo (TEX)
    Michael Conforto (NYM)
    Matt Kemp (SD)
    Starling Marte (PIT)
    Mike Trout (LAA)

    I was thinking of making an offer of Bautista kemp and a prospect either Glasnow or snell for bum and something else thoughts

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Kemp, Glasnow and Snell for Bum?

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Bautista kemp and probably Glasnow for bum and something else

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s not something else, that’s already what you asked about

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            How about Glasnow Bautista and kemp for Bumgarner and Machado

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Sounds solid

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Bautista kemp and probably Glasnow for bum is the deal in the table

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not good

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            ok thanks

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

  18. Scott Kimmel says:
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    And something else

  19. Kung Pao Panda says:
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    …most of you schmohawks skip right to the comments to ask me about your teams…

    Read every word of every post you write. You’re doing a helluva job. No questions!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  20. J-FOH says:
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    Doing a slow OBP mock right now. What was I thinking doing a spreadsheet mock

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, better write it up for the site

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: well sky is in there, but TBH, I havent taken it very serious. I punted an Ace, which you might like, but I also reached at one pick so if the guy does have a kick ass year I can go, see, look where I took him back in December.

        Here’s the roster so far working out of the 6th slot I went in this order Machado, Betts, Chris Davis, Cespedes, Corey Seager, Syndergaard, Salazar, Kemp, McCullers.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Star Wars… They stuck the landing… Great film, worth seeing in the theaters…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: I will see it. But glad you went no comment about my draft

  21. Running Frog says:
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    Greetings from North North Korea, Grey (where it’s gonna be 13ºF today).

    This is one of those dart board questions, because it depends on about 5 moving parts including future trades, player performance, and a plague of locusts… but what would you project out of Adam Duvall this year for the Reds?

    He looked like the opening day LF before the Frazier trade. Now maybe a platoon with Schebler. Or maybe Bruce goes away and they both play. And maybe striking out 71% of the time gets Duvall sent back to AAA mid-season. Or maybe he goes to the Joey Votto Academy For Undisciplined Hitters and comes out hitting .280… Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I didn’t think they allowed internet in North Korea… Say hello to the il-Jungs for me! Duval should have an Opening Day job, he’s a nice deep sleeper… With 500 ABs, he could hit 25 HRs, though prolly .230

  22. MNLen says:
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    Lawrie reminds me quite distinctly of an enemy in Super Mario World. I see flashes of him as a Goomba, riding inside a floating bubble of fantasy relevance. I cowardly avoid him at all costs at the top of a convenient tree platform, and allow him to pass through my scrolling season screen without cutting my height in half, literally!

    Love your wiggle, just can’t buy this take based on gut feels alone. Props to you when you’re right.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA! Nice comparison

  23. M says:
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    Speaking of post-hype guys, what do you think of Michael Saunders for 2016 provided good health?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There’s no way he plays enough to make an impact without an injury

  24. BarstoolRodeo says:
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    Mr. Grey,
    I’ve been reading your fantasy blog for a few years and it’s really the best. Original, witty, very entertaining, and helpful!!
    Keep it up, man!
    Couldn’t find a link to emaIl you a non-Brett Lawrie question, but at least theres 2 Chicago guys involved…Addison Russell and I. Well, I’m from and live in Chicago, but anyway…
    In a 14-team ROTO keep all forever would you trade:
    Machado for Russell/Yelich?
    Hope you can help. Otherwise, sorry to you and all the Lawrie readers for taking up comment space.
    On the real? You really are a great writer keep it coming!

    • BarstoolRodeo says:
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      @BarstoolRodeo:

      Btw – this is only my second post I think and I’m grateful for the my little pony avatar now I can show my wife and kids what I look like sometimes when I dissappear into the bathroom to read about fantasy lol

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Nice avatar!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Machado… Thanks for the kind words!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh and feel free to ask any question on any post

      • BarstoolRodeo says:
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        @Grey:

        Cool man thanks for replying!

        I couldn’t have picked a better avatar myself!

        Happy Holidays man

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You too!

  25. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    Would you trade Tolleson for Matt Duffy of SF?
    Would you rather have Duffy or Moustakas to back up Donaldson?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Moustakas

  26. J-FOH says:
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    watching master chef junior and they showed commercial for master chef celebrity in january

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh my God, who’s on it?!

  27. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    I have two questions

    1) Would you trade Votto and Choo for longoria and j Upton? I have Encarnacion at first as well. My outfield is Cain,Choo,Conforto, marte and trout
    2) would you rather have longoria as a backup up Donaldson or Moustakas

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Go to my newest post

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Grey what is it

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Razzball.com

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