This is the 2nd Angels outfielder that I’ve pegged as a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper. What’s the chances that comes to fruition? Zero? Can you do negative odds? Last year I pegged Jared Walsh as a sleeper, and he broke out. This year I like two. What can I tell you, I’m a dumb man. At least I think Luis Rengifo is still very terrible. Having Mike Trout (I think, he still plays, right?) and Shohei Ohtani in the lineup with Anthony Rendon (remember him? I legit forgot until I looked at their depth charts), David Fletcher, Jared Walsh, Stassi, Adell and Brandon Marsh shouldn’t be a layup for anyone. Their pitching still looks pretty raunchy, so don’t worry, it’s not like I’m picking the Angels to win the World Series. Above average hitting? Yeah, I’d think so. Unlike Jo Adell, or similar to Jo Adell, depending on how poorly that works out for me, Brandon Marsh might have playing time issues. Assuming Mike Trout is healthy (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA), there’s two outfielder spots for Adell, Marsh, Phil Gosselin and Justin Upton. Clearly, I think Adell and Marsh are easily the lead candidates for the last two spots, but other guys have to get some at-bats, and benching the lefty Marsh against lefties does make some sense. It’s not ideal, but there’s plenty of other reasons to like Marsh, besides always knowing where the stash is:
Brandon Marsh just wants to know where the doobies are pic.twitter.com/uSzRZKLIcl
— Razzball (@Razzball) July 18, 2021
So, what can we expect from Brandon Marsh for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Brandon Marsh sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Like this new deodorant that I invented that smells like sweat. Investors? Anyone? Anyway II, the Brandon Marsh sleeper:
If Angels don’t have shirts made that read: Don’t Harsh The Marsh, then that’s a big missed opportunity. For a guy who looks like the definition of “eating Takis on a beanbag” Marsh is actually fast. For a guy who looks like the definition of “watching the same TV channel for five hours because he can’t be bothered to move” he’s got power too. Power and speed, it’s this athletic profile that makes us go gaga. They contribute in the two most desirable roto categories, and above all they help you win leagues. If you want 1,000 words on guys with empty batting averages, and solid hit tools, holler at someone else where you can get their hot tips and finish in 5th every year in your league. Fortune favors the bold, and the bold like Brandon Marsh. Why do the bold like Brandon Marsh? Imma let the numbers do the talking.
Brandon Marsh has a top 95th percentile sprint speed and top 86th percentile Max Exit Velocity. He had a .356 SLG but .405 xSLG with a 51.7% Hard Hit rate, that was with a 31.3% Line Drive rate. Lot to unpack there; that SLG is around league average, or Xander Bogaerts’s last year. That Hard Hit rate is between Rafael Devers and Paul Goldschmidt. That line drive rate is unheard of. Will double back to that.
Devers, Bogaerts, Au Shizz have what in common? The inability to steal 25+ bags. Guess what they do have in common with Marsh: Those guys are sluggers and Marsh is right there with them. Okay, about that line drive rate: It was the 2nd highest in the majors for guys with at least 180 plate appearances. It would’ve been the highest in the league for the 2nd half. It’s crazy high for a rookie. He was the 38th in the league for Hard Hit% right by Eloy and Muncy. Brandon Marsh had the lowest Soft Contact% in the league at 4.1%. These numbers are so wildly insane, I need to point something crazy out: Marsh had the 8th best line drive rate since 2000 and the lowest — again for emphasis — the lowest soft contact. In 2nd place was Barry Bonds’s 2006 season. I will now cackle for the next 20 minutes, excuse me. *lies on the ground and cackles, after 20 minutes, sits up* Okay, I’m back. Brandon Marsh and Barry Bonds, ya know, two totally normal guys to mention in the same breath. If Marsh can cut his strikeouts (35% last year) to minor league levels (26%), he might hit .320, because unlike the 2006 version of Bonds, Marsh can actually fly. Marsh’s BABIP last year was .403 and he was still unlucky.
Brandon Marsh might get some games off vs. lefties and might still strike out a bit, but in the realm of possibilities is Brandon Marsh going 15/30/.300. No, I’m not high. Marsh prolly is though. For 2022, I’ll give Brandon Marsh projections of 68/8/51/.271/21 in 481 ABs with a chance for much more.
