One of the rarest commodities in fantasy baseball is the five category player. Someone who can hit for average and power, steal bases, and provide meaningful contributions in the runs scored and runs batted in categories. Even more specifically, a player who possesses an elite combination of power and speed since counting stats can be somewhat dependent on lineup positioning, and batting average can fluctuate for a player from year to year due to luck factors that are completely out of his control. Starling Marte is one of these players. Since his rookie season in 2012, Marte is 13th in the major leagues with 93 stolen bases, and is one of only three players (Mike Trout and Carlos Gomez are the others) to steal that many bases and hit 40+ homers to go along with it. The scariest thing for opposing pitchers is that the 26-year-old Marte appears to just now be hitting his power peak.
Let’s take a look at his career production on a yearly basis since entering the league three years ago:
| Season | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 47 | 182 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 4.40% | 27.50% | 0.18 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.3 | 0.437 |
| 2013 | 135 | 566 | 12 | 83 | 35 | 41 | 4.40% | 24.40% | 0.161 | 0.363 | 0.28 | 0.343 | 0.441 |
| 2014 | 135 | 545 | 13 | 73 | 56 | 30 | 6.10% | 24.00% | 0.162 | 0.373 | 0.291 | 0.356 | 0.453 |
| 2015 | 57 | 233 | 12 | 32 | 40 | 10 | 6.00% | 24.00% | 0.223 | 0.283 | 0.251 | 0.31 | 0.474 |
The two things that immediately stick out concerning Marte’s 2015 numbers are the jump in power and the unusually low BABIP. His 12 home runs this season are just one shy of his career high of 13 which was set last season, and his .283 BABIP is down 90 points from his 2014 total and 80 points from the previous season. That lower BABIP has resulted in a career low .251 batting average thus far this season.
What caused that huge drop in BABIP? Is it just poor luck or is there something in his batted ball data that can provide a reasonable explanation? Let’s take a look at that data and see if we can figure it out:
| Season | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2.32 | 18.40% | 57.00% | 24.60% | 10.70% | 17.90% | 19.00% | 50.40% | 30.60% |
| 2013 | 1.85 | 21.60% | 50.80% | 27.50% | 3.10% | 12.20% | 10.60% | 56.20% | 33.30% |
| 2014 | 1.62 | 23.50% | 47.30% | 29.20% | 4.90% | 12.70% | 17.60% | 49.50% | 33.00% |
| 2015 | 2.69 | 23.40% | 55.80% | 20.80% | 6.30% | 37.50% | 27.20% | 42.40% | 30.40% |
A few thoughts and observations on these batted ball results:
• Marte’s 37.5% home run to fly ball ratio leads MLB and is 4.8% greater than the next highest rate, Joc Pederson’s 32.7%. The last qualified player to produce a HR/FB of at least 30% over the course of a full season was Ryan Howard in 2008 (31.8%).
• Over the 2013-2014 seasons, only two players (Yasiel Puig and Ian Desmond in 2014) managed to produce an ISO of at least .170 while sporting a GB% of 50% or higher. When the stats from those two seasons are combined, only Puig qualifies. It’s difficult to consistently hit for power when a player is hitting the ball on the ground that frequently.
• Among all qualified players, Marte’s 27.8% Soft Hit% is the highest percentage in MLB. According to this statistic, Marte has been making weak contact over a quarter of the time. In order to provide some context, 20% is considered below average, 22% is considered poor, and 25% or higher is considered awful.
To summarize, there’s no question that Marte possesses a rare combination of above average power and speed. However, based on his 2015 numbers, it appears unlikely that he’ll be able to maintain his current power pace through the rest of this season. He still hits far too many ground balls for a player hoping to hit more than 20 homers, especially when factoring in some likely regression in the HR/FB department. Marte is a fantasy asset for sure, but if another owner is willing to value him as a top 20 overall player and compensate you accordingly, it might be a good time to cash in.
Final Verdict:
