Over the past few weeks, we’ve looked at three of the most exciting young players that Major League Baseball has to offer: Kris Bryant, Starlin Castro, and Chris Archer. This week, we’re gonna switch gears and take a look at 35-year-old veteran Matt Holliday. It’s kind of like going car shopping and checking out the flashy, new sports cars in the front of the dealership on the way to the used pick-up truck lot in the back. But remember when Holliday was that gorgeous new Ferrari in the front window?
Here are his numbers from his 2006-08 Rockies days in case you forgot:
| Season | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 667 | 34 | 119 | 114 | 10 | 0.326 | 0.387 | 0.586 |
| 2007 | 713 | 36 | 120 | 137 | 11 | 0.34 | 0.405 | 0.607 |
| 2008 | 623 | 25 | 107 | 88 | 28 | 0.321 | 0.409 | 0.538 |
Looks kind of like Miguel Cabrera with speed or maybe a best-case Paul Goldschmidt, doesn’t it? Holliday was one of only two players during this three year span to average 30+ home runs, 15+ steals, and a .300+ batting average. Alex Rodriguez was the other. Pretty impressive.
Of course, the Cardinals version of Holliday hasn’t quite been that same sleek, sexy Ferrari that he was in his heyday (and playing half of his games at Coors Field certainly didn’t hurt). This Holliday has been more like that Chevy Silverado that could be found in the back lot. It might not be nearly as sexy as the Ferrari, but it’s extremely reliable and can run forever. Or almost forever. Just how long will that motor last?
You knew it was coming. Get ready for it… comp time! First, we’ll take a look at Holliday’s first five full seasons with the Cardinals (2010-14), and compare his offensive production to three other players with similar skill sets at identical points in their careers (age 30-34 seasons). That table can be seen here:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | ISO | BABIP | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Holliday | 3148 | 119 | 459 | 464 | 25 | 0.295 | 0.201 | 0.323 | 11.00% | 16.00% | 0.382 | 144 |
| Bernie Williams | 3166 | 115 | 505 | 496 | 46 | 0.313 | 0.196 | 0.332 | 12.70% | 12.80% | 0.391 | 138 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 2513 | 90 | 341 | 429 | 6 | 0.32 | 0.188 | 0.334 | 8.80% | 11.90% | 0.382 | 132 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 2997 | 127 | 421 | 465 | 11 | 0.294 | 0.218 | 0.31 | 11.00% | 15.20% | 0.378 | 128 |
Bobby Bo getting recognized for something other than the truckloads of money that the Mets still owe him through 2125 or so (seriously, how does that happen?). He flashed the most power here out of the bunch. Ordonez had the lowest K-rate and the highest average, while Bernie stole the most bases. Holliday was 2nd or 3rd in just about every category across the board. While each player looks to be slightly different in certain areas, their overall offensive production appears to be very similar.
Now let’s see how each of the three comp players fared during their age-35 campaigns respectively:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | ISO | BABIP | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magglio Ordonez | 518 | 9 | 54 | 50 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.118 | 0.344 | 9.80% | 12.50% | 0.356 | 113 |
| Bernie Williams | 651 | 22 | 105 | 70 | 1 | 0.262 | 0.173 | 0.281 | 13.10% | 14.70% | 0.347 | 110 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 381 | 11 | 39 | 45 | 1 | 0.249 | 0.138 | 0.268 | 10.80% | 15.50% | 0.313 | 92 |
Even a Silverado has to give out at some point. To be fair, that’s a pretty solid stat line that Bernie produced in what would be his last hurrah as a productive player, essentially.
As you can see, the most significant drop across the board for these players was in their power production. Williams’ ISO dropped 23 points from the previous table, while Bonilla and Ordonez experienced 80 and 70 point declines respectively.
What does this mean for Holliday? Let’s take a look at his 2015 production through Tuesday’s games:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | ISO | BABIP | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Holliday | 76 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 0.383 | 0.083 | 0.489 | 18.40% | 19.70% | 0.422 | 173 |
Solid start to the season. Terrific batting average and counting stats, and his early walk rate is very strong. However, there are two glaring red flags in this profile: the .083 ISO and .489 BABIP marks. Considering his .323 BABIP since 2010, that elevated BABIP number (and thus, his batting average) should come down considerably as the season progresses. The power decline is even more concerning. Holliday is at the age when a player’s power starts to dry up, as it did for Ordonez and Bonilla (as well as Williams a year later). There’s still a place for that kind of player on fantasy squads, but it might be a good idea to temper expectations. Think more along the lines of Torii Hunter rather than Adrian Gonzalez.
Final Verdict:
