Bailey Ober gave up a lot of home runs. 20, to be exact. That was only in 92 1/3 IP. His 1.95 HR/9 made me choke on my boba. That alone is a crime punishable by “not getting a fantasy baseball sleeper post written for him.” Bailey Ober’s pitches generated a 19.7 Launch Angle. If you’re going to allow a 45.8% fly ball rate, which would’ve been 2nd in the league, if he qualified, you kinda can’t be allowing a Ding Dong Parade. By the way, a Ding Dong Parade is the all-male revue your wife went to during her bachelorette party; don’t shoot the messenger. “Ding Dong” Parades is a weak-hitting shortstop in the Mexican Fall League, different guy. Also, a Ding Dong Parade is not what you want to see from a pitcher or Bailey Ober’s xERA at 4.48. Reach for the Remote Control, get Ober off my TV.
Bailey wasn’t like the other kids. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Stop allowing homers is what mattered, nothing else did. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Fantasy baseballers said “yes” but he said “no”. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Now he’s in this game and just like that he’s down 4-0. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
I will now grin like an idiot as I try to defend why we’re even talking about Ober. Stop giving up homers, Bailey Ober! Oh my God, I just realized something, Bailey Ober is really Homer Bailey Ober. Goodbye, friends, I’m going to walk into traffic. But first! So, what can we expect from Bailey Ober for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Bailey Ober sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve finished my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and they’re all available on our Patreon. Anyway II, the Bailey Ober sleeper:
Homer Bailey Ober can stop giving up homers, because I don’t know why he was giving up homers to begin with and don’t end sentences with with — dah! Across his minor league career, Ober gave up 11 homers in 181 2/3 IP. Sure, minor leagues are not major leagues. Thanks, Einstein. His WHIP was also 0.94 in the minors, backed by a 1.04 BB/9. Last year in the majors in those 92 1/3 IP, he had a 1.85 BB/9. What that tells me is he knows exactly where the ball is going. This is not a guy throwing the ball and praying. A guy who knows where the ball is going can figure out where to throw it to stop giviing out tickets to the Ding Dong Parade.
What I failed to mention when I said that fly ball rate and Launch Angle above was that Max Scherzer, Dylan Cease, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Giolito, Julio Urias…A ton of aces were in the top 10 for fly ball rates and Freddy Peralta had a 21.4 Launch Angle; Scherzer had essentially same Launch Angle as Ober, and that doesn’t matter. Lazy fly balls are just as good as keeping the ball on the ground. Ober might actually be the least fortunate guy for home runs allowed as I’ve ever seen. As aforementioned, he allowed 20 homers, and he pitches for the Twins, who play in the Hubert H. Homerfree Dome. It’s the 21st worst stadium for hitters on a three-year rolling average. Ober was so unlucky that the expected home runs allowed for him if he pitched in only Hubert H. Homerfree Dome was 13. That’s wild. I figured giving up that amount of homers and having that good command was rare, so I skimmed (honestly, might’ve missed one or two) all pitchers with a 1.85 BB/9 since 2000 for guys with a HR/9 that was as bad as Ober’s and it returned zero pitchers. Only one guy was even close, and that was Carlos Silva. The only slight difference between Ober and Silva is Ober had a 9.4 K/9. Silva had a 4 K/9 in his career! In fact (Grey’s got more!), there was only eight guys since 2000 with a 1.95 HR/9. It’s rare, because it’s awful! And it’s never paired with a guy with Ober’s command. It’s common sense. If a guy can throw the ball where he wants, he’s not going to throw meatballs like a chef at Buca di Beppo. Okay, PETA is at my door for beating this dead horse, so I need to move on before someone throws a can of paint on me.
Bailey Ober works off a bleh 92 MPH fastball, but that is just butter for when he makes the hitter toast with his change. He threw that change in the 81 to 88 MPH range, averaging 84 and had that get absolutely rocked, which is again crazy. Ober’s such a weird one, guys and five lady readers. Ober was way more successful with a ‘whatever’ fastball than he was with his change. Ober said during the season that he was finding more success with the fastball because his excellent change was setting it up, instead of the reverse. Here’s the thing, Homer Bailey Ober, your results weren’t good with a 1.95 HR/FB. What I think will happen is someone will figure out his sequencing so he’s setting up his great change to succeed vs. the reverse. It’s not punchline then joke; it’s joke pitch, then punchout. With this figured out, Bailey Ober will reduce his home runs allowed (because honestly that can’t be worse), and will become a solid number four with flashes of a number two and three. For 2022, I’ll give Bailey Ober projections of 9-10/3.89/1.11/161 in 157 IP with a chance for more.
