Even though I’m not a big fan of bold statements, I’m going to make a few of my own. I mean let’s be honest, a bold statement post is really just an opportunity for a writer to openly share their gut instincts in a protected environment. Bold predictions are what we want to say, but […]
Please, blog, may I have some more?
In the early 90’s Parker Lewis was a too cool for school teenager that couldn’t lose. Wikipedia defined him as “a smart guy with a penchant for garish shirts and cutting classes”. The show had a very Ferris Bueller feel. Parker, the title character, usually had a plan up his sleeve which almost always involved […]
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Points Leagues: Bargain Shopping
February 28, 2022 | 2022 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 2 Commentsby: malamoney
Finding draft day bargains is the best way to break out of the starting gates. Well, I guess the best way is to have a solid core of keepers, but in a redraft league, everything starts with the draft. Or does it start with the draft prep? So like Jesus Jones sang, does it start right here, right now? I think it might. Maybe not with this exact post, but somewhere here on Razzball. With every draft day bargain, you gain on your league mates. If you need a refresher on what a draft day bargain is, I will tell you. A draft day bargain is when you draft a player later than his actual value. For simplicity’s sake, drafting Juan Soto in the second round would be a prime example. Soto is an easy top five pick, so drafting him with the 12th pick means you’ve gotten Soto with a draft pick in which he shouldn’t have been available.
Determining a player’s actual value in points league can be tricky as player rankings will vary based on the league’s scoring system. You all know how much I’ve stressed the importance of knowing a league’s scoring system when trying to compare players. The other confusing data point is average draft position (ADP). ADP can be misleading because it most certainly does not represent a player’s true value, just his current market value as it represents where a player is being drafted by the masses. The problem is that ADP is contagious. What this means is that when someone is trying to determine who to draft with their next pick, they often refer to the remaining players’ ADP to see who they should be picking before someone else selects the player. So if Aaron Judge has an ADP of 23, he’s not going to be available when you pick at 40. This is true even if Judge’s actual value is the 45th best player in your league. Unfortunately, there is always going to be at least one person in your league that will draft based on ADP.
Let’s look at some players that have an ADP greater than their actual value.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Sheriff Rosco G. Cole Trane
February 21, 2022 | 2022 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 9 Commentsby: malamoney
I’m a little uneasy about putting out rankings at this stage of the game given the uncertainty surrounding the start of the MLB season, but I know many of you need to make some decisions about keepers and are probably starting to think about drafts. I strongly recommend that your league considers delaying any keeper deadlines and solidifying a draft date until the start of the season is more of a certainty. A lot can happen between now and Opening Day and that will directly affect player values. Those of you that read my posts over the years know that I am a numbers guy. My rankings are based on my estimations. Estimations are my version of projections. However, I have not yet started to formulate my estimations given the aforementioned MLB climate. Luckily for me, and you, Rudy, perhaps the best in the business, has generated projections. I think I might have broken a record for the number of commas in that last sentence. Almost certain it was bad grammar. Today’s rankings are based on a proprietary blend of those projections and my patent-pending algorithms.
I don’t often do ranking tiers, but when I do, I share them with you.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Hitter Rankings Beta Version
February 14, 2022 | 2022 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 7 Commentsby: malamoney
Picture this. I’m sitting in my daughter’s pink Yogibo Pod X watching the Super Bowl when I hear a beeping noise coming from the kitchen. For those wondering what the hell a Yogibo Pod X is, it’s just a fancy term for a bean bag chair that costs more than two hundred dollars. I jumped up as quick as a 45 year old guy that’s been pregaming for the big game all day could, as I figured the beeping was my state of the art home alarm system. Never know who might be snooping in my windows trying to catch a glimpse of my 2022 points league early rankings. However, when I got to the alarm panel, I found all zones solid green. Figuring it must have been one of my daughter’s toys, I went back and parked my ass back in the expensive bean bag chair and continued watching the game as I worked on my rankings.
A few minutes later, shortly after Odell Beckham Jr. injured his knee, I heard the beeping noise again. What in the world is that I thought. I needed another drink so I decided to head into the kitchen to investigate. As I grabbed another Twisted Tea from the fridge I heard the beeping for a third time. To my surprise it was coming from the junk drawer. I hadn’t been in that drawer in forever. Intrigued, I opened the drawer and couldn’t believe what I found. My clear blue Motorola pager was actually going off. I haven’t been beeped since before Eminem signed with Dr. Dre! Who in the world could be beeping me? I couldn’t wait to find out. I grabbed my cell and dialed the number.
“I got beeped from this number,” I said when they answered the phone. “malamoney, it’s Grey. We need some points league rankings as soon as possible,” said Grey. “You got it,” I replied as I hung up the phone. Now listen, I knew Grey was awesome, but I had no idea he was “I’ll beep you in 2022” awesome. I have no idea how long I’ve been writing for Razzball, but I’m happy to be back. MLB lockout aside, it’s about that time that I start preparing for my points leagues, and as I do, I’m always happy to share my findings with all of you Razzball-lites. Or is it Razzballians? I did participate in a head-to-head mock draft with the experts over at CBS last week and I will be sharing the results of that soon.
In the meantime, consider the following my initial attempt to put together points league rankings for 2022. These are going to change a bit over the next few weeks as I continue to dive deeper, but for now, here’s where I’m at.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Do What Must Be Done
August 20, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 9 Commentsby: malamoney
For many of you, your fantasy season is likely over. Most leagues are approaching the playoffs and with only about 30-something percent of teams in a league making the playoffs, at least half are out of it by now. For those in that boat, be sure to continue setting your lineup as there are teams still fighting. Don’t be that guy. Unless of course you’re tanking for the first pick. But that’s a debate for another post. It’s important to remember, anything goes during the playoff stretch. Every point counts. That means every plate appearance counts. Make sure you have guys in your lineup that are going to give you the best chance at points. It’s a lot easier to cut ties with a player at this point in the season that you might have had a hard time doing two months ago. Like the Emperor said to Anakin in Revenge of the Sith, “Do what must be done“.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Eugenio Swear(ez) Words
August 2, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 3 Commentsby: malamoney
If I wrote down exactly how I feel about or what I’d like to say to Eugenio Suarez I would certainly violate George Carlin’s Seven Dirty Words. That still doesn’t lessen my urge to scream screwez youez every time Eugenio steps into the batters box. Speaking of which, he’s earning 0.35 points per plate appearance. Is that good you ask? It’s dog shitez terrible. Amongst players with at least 200 plate appearances, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads all hitters with a 0.93 PPPA. Only Byron Buxton, who hasn’t played since May 6th, has a better PPPA. But he only has 110 plate appearances to Vlad’s 432. Kinda apples to oranges if you ask me. If I drop the minimum number of plate appearances to 100, there are about 315 hitters ranked higher than Eugenio dipshitez.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Rest of Season Rankings
July 24, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 6 Commentsby: malamoney
During the draft season I anointed David Fletcher as potentially the biggest draft day bargain given his points league projections and average draft position. Preseason I had him ranked 58th overall, which put him in the 5th round. His ADP, however, had him being drafted in the 17th round. He is currently the 58th ranked hitter. I had the 58 right, but that included pitchers. I haven’t calculated year-to-date position-adjusted rankings to see how many pitchers are ahead of him, but a rough estimate puts him at about 80th overall. I never suggested drafting Fletcher anywhere near the 5th round. I believe I recommended targeting rounds 14/15. I own him in every league I am in and he is paying dividends in each of those leagues. Based on these rest of season rankings I have Fletcher as the 37th ranked hitter. That means he’s going to get better, and eventually having Mike Trout back in the lineup will certainly help his cause.
One thing I’d like to mention is that it is very possible that some players might be missing from my list. If a player hasn’t had at least 150 or so plate appearances my formula will not include them in the calculations. If anyone else is missing (or is lower than expected), it could be because said player has missed time due to injury. Let me know in the comments if you’ve uncovered any missing hitters and I will see if I can figure out where they might belong.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week I highlighted the cream of the crop from the first half. Today I give you the players that were supposed to be in last week’s post, but have fallen quite short of the mark. These are the players that are likely hurting their fantasy teams because of the investment made in the player based on their draft position. Early round draft picks that don’t produce are a detriment success. The players listed below are all guys you’d be happy with when reviewing your team hours and days after your draft, but right about now you’re cursing them out.
Please, blog, may I have some more?With the MLB All-Star voting complete and the starters and reserves decided, I thought I would take this opportunity to pick the real points league All-Stars. What do I mean by “real” All-Stars? Well it’s easy to spot the superstar players that are performing above the board, but when it’s a player that you drafted in the early rounds that is only doing what he was expected to do, it’s not nearly as impressive as a guy that you drafted late or picked up off the waiver wire. I’ve said this several times before and I’ll say it again, it’s not the studs you draft early that win you the championship, it’s the players that outperform their draft day value and the waiver wire wonders that do that.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points League: 7, 14, 21, 28 Trends
June 28, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 4 Commentsby: malamoney
I decided to take a look at the top players, based on points, over the last 7, 14, 21 and 28 days to see if there were any trends worth taking a closer look at. This is typically a good way to identify players on a hot streak, but it’s also useful in tracking consistency. Let’s see who’s been doing what over the last month. I’ve limited each list to about the top 15 or 16 hitters.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Let’s Go Islanders
June 21, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 17 Commentsby: malamoney
That’s right, I said it. Let’s Go Islanders!!!! I have been a New York Islanders fan since the second grade. That was back in 1984. Most assume I was an Islanders fan because of the dynasty in which they won the Stanley Cup the four previous seasons. That is not the case. Unfortunately I missed that boat. I was too young at the time. Others then assume that my dad was an Islanders fan. That too is incorrect. My dad was a big New York Yankees fan, but was indifferent when it came to hockey. There are two reasons why I became an Islanders fan. The first is that my best friend in second grade was a big Rangers fan, and he and I used to play street hockey nearly every day. Nearly every day is a probably an exaggeration, but frequently would be a fair assessment. We used to play with milk crates for goals because that’s what we could find in the garage. It actually made us very accurate shooters as we got older. While I did grow up in northern New Jersey, the Devils didn’t move to the Meadowlands until 1982. Back in the eighties, the Rangers’ local rival was the Islanders. Since my buddy always wore a Rangers shirt of some sort, I backed the Islanders to keep the spirit of rivalry alive. However, the real truth behind why I chose the Islanders was because I liked their colors. This fact is a bit ironic considering I don’t like the Mets or Knicks. Perhaps going to Yankee Stadium at the age of two I had already been roped into the Pinstripes. Fast forward to today and any NHL fans know that Islanders fans have endured a very difficult 35 years. Never having watched your favorite sports franchise win the championship sucks. Last year they gave us something to be very excited about. This year they are doing the same with an opportunity to avenge last year’s elimination loss. And in the process they have given Islanders fans such as myself that now live in the Boston area a bit to brag about.
Please, blog, may I have some more?