So excited to be back! Wild horses couldn’t keep me, Mr. Moving Averages away from what I have in store for you here, in Part 9 of The Eighteenth Out. I’m burning the midnight oil to get all of this information out before drafts take place, and if I lock up a Newcomer of the Year award in the meantime, then so be it. There’s so much custom content to provide today I’ll cut the jokes short and get right to work. Ok, maybe one because if you can’t tell by now I am a sucker for the pop culture of my childhood. Hold on to your giant dark helmets ladies and gentlemen; This series is now officially moving at LUDICROUS SPEED, and we’re at serious risk of going plaid.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Greetings and salutations, fellow baseball researchers. It is I, Mr. Moving Averages back at the helm as we charge once more through sports and time in our exploration to dissect the inner workings of the Quality Start. We have come so far in such a short period of time. If any of the references or stats in this article appear to lack context, please refer back to prior segments for their basis, creation or explanation. There’s a lot of information and results we have established to get to this point, so looking back for a refresher is always understandable; We’ve introduced several new processes and statistics. We’ve confirmed our assertions and finally, the data mining is done; Let the analysis begin! In Part 8, the fantasy rubber meets the road as we apply some of our research to actual ballplayers that will help us to take home the fantasy trifecta; The cheddar, the chip and the trophy. We came into this with a purpose, and once this collective of truth seekers climbs the top rope you know the big elbow isn’t far behind (RIP Randy Savage OOOOH YEAAAA).
Please, blog, may I have some more?Spring Training is here, and Mr. Moving Averages is cranking out content like some kind of content making machine. Countless hours of research, critical thinking, data mining, analysis & writing all come to a head as we approach Opening Day. Draft season is upon us, even if there may be snow on the ground in Brooklyn as I write this. Our immersive work, without an initial definitive direction began by opening a door. That lead to another door. And another, and another until we wound up down the rabbit hole, nowhere near where we started. My advice at this point? Follow the white rabbit. Reminds me of an old adage, a call to unification; ”Where we go one, we go all”.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
The 18th Out, Part 6: QS+Win Conversion And Outliers for 2019
March 10, 2019 | 2019 Fantasy Baseball | 9 Commentsby: John L
Welcome back for Part 6 of The Eighteenth Out. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5) Every article has brought us a step closer to redefining a new, effective way to go about evaluating and drafting point pitchers. Thankless is the job of the Point League fantasy analyst, yet we trudge on. There are times in life we break away from the pack and wander out alone into the unknown, determined to achieve our destiny. Imagine something that epic, but relating to baseball statistics (and a full orchestra playing the GoT theme song in the background). Why so serious you ask? You’ll see (I hate being wrong).
Please, blog, may I have some more?Before we fasten our pocket protectors and bust out the graphing calculators, I’d like to thank everyone in the Razzball universe for reading, supporting, and responding. I’ve learned as much from you as you have from me. This experience has really been a lot of fun, and I truly feel like we’re doing very important work that started in Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 for the H2H space. I believe this will lead to developing an edge come draft day. Welcome to the QS Thunderdome. Two stats enter, one stat leaves!
Please, blog, may I have some more?As of this writing, Part 3 of The Eighteenth Out literally went out to the public less than an hour ago and I’m already back in the lab, ready to see where our latest exciting correlative discovery may take us. Nothing like a good statistical breakthrough to start the week, am I right? If you’re just joining me on my exploration through time and sports you can catch up on the foundations for this work here (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). I am so genuinely stoked about the path we’ve found ourselves on, that yesterday afternoon I almost asked the girl at the pork store if she could believe that Quality Starts were so highly correlated to Starting Pitcher End of Season Position Ranks in Fantasy Point Leagues (exhale). I mean at this point it had to be all over social media, right? Trending worldwide? Would I be dodging swaths of sabermetric paparazzi on my way back to the car? Well, it was not, I was not and I didn’t even end up asking her. I just took my hot soppressata and left (it’s pronounced soo-pah-sad for all my non Brooklyn born baseball lovers).
Now that I’ve successfully referenced my favorite cultural salted meat, its time to get back to work. To quickly recap, we left off with all Starting Pitchers in 2018 with at least 20 Quality Starts (15 Players) and tested for correlation with that pitcher’s finishing rank by position in each format…
Please, blog, may I have some more?A howdy, a hey and a hi-yo Silver to all the hot-rod rowdy Razzball readers in deep anticipation of this; The third installment of my series on the oft spat upon Quality Start (Part 1 and Part 2). I’m so glad to be back at the grindstone so soon; Things around here are getting better every day. Recuperation from a neck surgery is progressing daily, and little John is sleeping a little longer every night. In fact, I’ve sat down to start this article three different times already; Each time ending up down a different rabbit hole of QS stats which set me on a productive, yet different path than intended. So for the delight of the crowd (and the detriment of the nerve endings in my fingers) the H2H part of our QS exploration will become a series within a series. Just as a note going forward; Always keep in mind that point league formats can vary greatly. I will be using the format from my own CBS Home League which is only slightly varied from the standard: +0.5 per out, +1.0 per K, -0.5 per runner, -1.0 per run, +7.0 per W, +5.0 per QS, -5.0 per L. We wanted to make sure that in the event of taking a Quality Start + Loss, (which we call ”eating the cock-meat sandwich”) that the QS negates the Loss. All leagues are different so make sure to adjust for your own format as we progress.
Please, blog, may I have some more? The 18th Out, Part 2: To Roto QS, To Not Roto QS, Or To Roto Acquiesce?
February 11, 2019 | 2019 Fantasy Baseball | 17 Commentsby: John L
Sorry for the delay between installments, but it’s been crazy here at the homestead! And speaking of which, The 18th Out, Part 1 can be read here. I recently had a neck surgery in late January, and we had a newborn baby boy (John Robert! What’s up Bubba!) in October. Who would’ve thought the combination of the two would put some kind of restraint on free time (and ability to keep my arm extended on the keyboard)? I’m not exactly 100% and practicing fully in pads, but I’m off the DL (renamed the IL since I started) and I’m ready to score some goals…
The time has come for the second installment of my exploration into the red headed stepchild of fantasy stat-lines; the Quality Start. In this edition, we’ll put the final touches on the efficacy of seeking out Quality Starts in the roto game and hopefully draw a cohesive conclusion before moving onto the fun part of QS talk; WEEKLY POINT LEAGUE DO-OR-DIE MAYHEM!!! However, before we can put the Brooklyn Brawler beat-down on that freckled miscreant under the stairs, I must unfortunately apologize for a specific inaccuracy in Part 1. As someone who is very particular when it comes to precision I got caught with my rosy red assumption out, pants down around my ankles. (Sorry, I didn’t hear you coming ESPN, I would’ve freshened up…) I copied a 2018 Team Pitching Totals Chart from ESPN, sorted for Quality Starts (Provided below). I didn’t even think to double check the once great sports network, turned annoying social justice warrior. Apparently Quality Starts are so overlooked that mega fantasy sites don’t even know how to calculate them anymore. This being the glorious age of trolling on an internet that never forgets, I feel compelled to post their erroneous numbers below… (The cause for this detour, that better not turn this into a Deliverance situation. If you hear banjos in the background, start running and don’t look back.)
Please, blog, may I have some more?Let’s break a bottle on this Brooklyn built ship and set sail! Before anything else, I’d like to send a huge thanks to Grey, Jay, the entire Razzball staff and all the readers for the opportunity to put my fantasy inspired madness onto digital paper. [Jay’s Note: You’re welcome!] It’s truly an honor and a pleasure, I’ve been a reader for long time. Hopefully I can provide some new information, a new perspective and some laughs to one of my favorite portions of the fantasy community. My friends, buckle up as we are about to embark together bravely on a series about an incredibly vital aspect, yet often ignored part of the fantasy game; the elusive Quality Start.
Please, blog, may I have some more?