Ya know, I play this fantasy baseball game shizz whatnot hullabaloo as well, so when I tell you about sleepers, everyone who I play against sees what I’m saying. Some sleepers are so juicy and under-the-radar I don’t want to discuss them. I want to store them away in my cheek until the perfect time to unleash them in my drafts. “Grey, are you chewing tobacco?” *mumbles* That’s me at a draft squirreling away sleepers. The one fortunate (in this case, at least) thing about fantasy baseball ‘perting is everyone thinks they know better than everyone else, or because of a URL someone might think they know more. For unstints, a ‘pert can lose massively 12 years in a row, but if they write for a ‘quality’ site, then they’re considered more of a ‘pert than someone from aitch tea tea pee ess colon back slash back slash Razzball dot com. So, I can say Amed Rosario is a sleeper, but most won’t pay attention because they think they know better. Others will pay attention, and these are the ones we have to make sure have the wrong time for the draft. Muahahahahahaha–*coughs wildly* Sorry, just getting over an evil cough. So, what can we expect from Amed Rosario for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
What is the act of being honed in on someone? Being hone-y? Well, I am so hone-y for players with power and speed. This sweet spot is where my hone-y lies. Last year, Amed Rosario went 75/15/72/.287/19 in 616 ABs with a 18.9% strikeout rate; .338 BABIP; 4.7% walk rate. What jumps out? His batting average? Yup, samesies. He had a .288 expected batting average, that’s 23rd best in the majors. From a 23-year-old kid (now 24), this feels special, because it is. He is a .290 hitter. You can say that about roughly 30 players, and six (Moncada, Betts, Trout, Marte, Yelich, Bellinger) have 20-steal speed. And, even those six, they feel like 20 steals is a bit pie-in-the-sky hope-and-pray type steals numbers. Moncada’s never come close, Trout isn’t a steals-first guy; Yelich’s been great recently, but just shattered his kneecap; Bellinger is a 20-steal guy? Really? Betts…Well, Betts feels like the only 20-steal lock there. Amed’s sprint speed is 29.2 feet/second. After filtering for at least 150 opportunities to get one’s gallup on, Amed is top ten, and, after Mondesi and Trea, he’s basically sausage-packed in a group of seven others separated by decimals and a desire to be the best you can be no matter how much adversity of Metsieness is put in one’s way. So, .290 and 20 steals? You’re getting that from literally Betts, Amed and no one else. I will know cackle into a corner for 45 minutes until they drag me away to a sanitarium. Next up, power. Does Amed really have any? Thanks for asking, Clunky Expository Question! You say expository, I say suppository, let’s call the whole thing off. Sorry, that’s catchy, and I’ve caught it! Rosario had a 29.3% fly ball rate with a 8.8 launch angle, uh, angle and 10.3 HR/FB%. Damn, Rosario, you learn hitting from Charley Lau? Stop swinging down on the ball! In other words, he’s not really going to be a 20-homer hitter. Are there exceptions? Is every snowflake the same? A guy with a worst fly ball rate is DJ LeMahieu, who hit 26 homers; Tommy Pham hits no fly balls and seems to threaten 20 homers every year; Shin-Soo Choo gets on The Seoul Train and hits 21-ish homers every year and doesn’t hit fly balls. So, yes, Amed could possibly hit 20 homers, but might depend on how many straws of Capri Sun are stuck into every ball for that juice. My guess is Amed hits around 14-17 homers without tweaking his swing. Also, we don’t really want the swing tweaked because then the .290 average would go bye-bye. With that said (yes, I’m about to throw out everything), Yelich had a terrible ground ball problem and wasn’t a 35-homer hitter until he grew into more power. Yes, I just compared Amed Rosario to Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. *writes in Amed Rosario’s name for president* So, I’m a fan, apparently. For 2020, I’ll give Amed Rosario projections of 88/17/70/.294/23 in 578 ABs with a chance for more.
Whit merrifield had averaged like a 300 avg and 30 steals a season the last 3 years also
What do you mean?
What can we expect in terms of growth in walk rate? 290 is great, but for OBP leagues, 320 ain’t so exciting. Thanks Grey
I’d be shocked if it was above .345… He doesn’t take a lot (any?) walks
What up with the crazy amount of click bait on mobile? I had to scroll for 20 minutes until I remembered the jump straight to comment form button. Can we buy next years package with ad-free now?
Anyhoo, Rosario feels to me like 2017 Elvis Andrus coming on. Which is good. Not Betts and Yelich. Now Elvis was much older, but the similar trends are there. FB% is too low and Hard hit % not high enough to get over that 25ish HR plateau. Would I take 25/25? Everyday at pick 135. (20 picks after Andrus)
You can buy ad-free alone now — https://razzball.com/membership-account/subscriptions/
Late-era Elvis (karate jumpsuits) is a good comparison… I think people are underestimating his average, bc he doesn’t walk
That’s for 2019. My subscription ended a few weeks back.
Ozuna could be a steal if his shoulder heals.
If you renew ad-free now, I will make sure you have it from now until end of 2020
Renewed. I’ll remind you of this non binding 400ish day agreement through end of 2020 in about 250 days.
Oh, and kinda shocked Ozuna was still there, shoulder surgery was so long ago now, unless he’s just damaged goods
The reappearing ads almost gave me a seizure. Had to take a deep breathe after the comment section kept disappearing.
Glad you’re still alive to tell the story
Just saw a Tweet from a Pert at FakeTeams listing his 2020 overhyped team. Includes Cavan Biggio. Feels like some other names Grey will name as sleepers will be there. You should get in a league with that guy.
How could a guy who is being drafted 150th overall be overhyped? Not sure about that logic
Other names cited:
d’Arnaud, Olson, JD Davis, Hoerner, Robert, Tucker, Aquino, Soler, Lamet, Fried, Luzardo, Canning, Gallen.
I don’t think my definition of overhyped is the same as theirs
Yeah, I would qualify “hype” as rhetoric leading to a player being drafted at an ADP where they don’t return value. That should be analytical and objective. Some examples of that last year would be Vlad Jr, Whitley, Etc.
This year I’d put Ohtani as my #1 canidate for not providing a good return on his current ADP of 74. There are at least 30 hitters or pitchers who I believe will provide more quantifiable value in 2020.
Biggio may hurt on average, but has a better than 50% chance at 20/20. That is a pretty selective group that warrants a good ADP. I’m with Grey on this one.
For clarification, I mean 30 hitters or pitchers being drafted AFTER his current ADP of 74.
Yeah, Vlad Jr. is a good example — I’d say this year, as of right now, Ohtani, Luis Robert and Kyle Tucker are overhyped… I could see things cooling on Tucker once we get to the spring and people are like, “They’re never playing Tucker, are they?”
Yeah, the Rockies effect: Garrett Hampson 2019.
Exactly! Wait until March and people are like, “Wait, why did I draft Kyle Tucker over Ozuna?”
Yeah, that’s it. I’m trying to take a no-hype approach to drafting. It took a dispassionat3 view to draft Zack Greinke at #90. Its not sexy, kinda like shopping for used clothes. Maybe even like te-carbonating flat soda. Whatever gets the job done and saves ADP $.
Yeah, Greinke is that to a tee… Super meh, but if you can get 185 IP with decent ratios, it’s safe without flashy
Yeah, I’m holding to my plan of getting two boring proven producers for every young, exciting player. So far, so good. A lot of “meh” with a litlle “hey…”
I do like me some “Hey…” Your team looks solid too, though you’re going super boring on pitching, which might make sense
Yeah, I might pull out some flashy cards/picks eventually, but for now having 7 SP’s averaging 180IP with 170 Ks, 14 W’s and solid avgs seems fine to me. Meh. It’ll do.
Yeah, it’s not a bad strategy… Every time I draft a starter, I regret it almost instantly..While after I grab a hitter, I love him more than I should
I definitely feel that with closers. Drafting a closer for me borders on nausea-inducing.
Yeah, especially this early
When it comes to closers, guessing activates the part of my brain that I prefer to use. Proven closers feel like eating at the drive-thru. Not my thang.
I think drafting this early I went a surer thing for of them.
Yeah, feel the same, but I don’t know what to do with closers this early, no one has a job
I think it all comes down to projections, how do you calculate your player’s outcome, hence , where is the guy finishing in projected player rater, vs where he’s going on average, let’s say a guy that goes 25/20, .242 BA, 85/72 runs/RBIs( your projections) is projected to finish in top 75 when it’s all said and done, he’s going around 140/150, that’s the definition of a sleeper…, even if some idiot overpays at 119 thinking zero way he’s there In ADPs range, it’s still a big profit
Yeah, agreed… Which team are you in our NFBC league?
#2?
Yes. He’s the snake who recently robbed me of Oscar Mercado.
Lol, Cortes-Batista, #2 spot, Yelich/Bieber/JD Martinez/Eugenio/Olson/Mercado/Woodruff, honestly, I think I made a mistake, Just Dong over Villar, makes me chase steals later vs the abundance of middle of other bats(power), I think your roster is insanely awesome, as much as I regret to say it, Donkey was right, you can build an empire (specially a FML type dude) from middle of draft, the players make it back to you, never happens closer to wheels
::peeks head in::
I think you made the right call. Villar could easily be traded to a contending team and become a super utility player. I owned him in MIL one year and that was dreadful.
Yeah, I don’t trust Villar that early
I like your team a lot, Hernan… Lot of guys I love, but you are weak in SBs
Billy Hamilton is CHEAP!!!
Haha, he is indeed, and should be
Yup guys, I was targeting victor Robles at 59, but got taken 3 spots before, I always map my teams in pairs, villar/Suarez or Olson, JD /Robles…, guess JD /Mercado is gonna have to do
I’d recommend using our draft as a warm up and following up soon after with a 2-hour or fast DC and get the players you want. The Razz crowd is a bit atypical and you can probably get the roster you want if you try that.
Makes sense and you know I love Mercado… you’re still gonna need more steals
Jarrod Dyson is still available.
I think any one of those players at their current NFBC ADP look worthwhile. Maybe check who the author drafts instead and where his finishes in his fantasy leagues in 2020 before giving it credibility.
Well, this was good to read this morning, since I reached by about 2 rounds for Rosario yesterday. I needed steals and it is part of a bigger plan, but a 15/25/.290 profile is very valuable in the age of 30+/3/.255 hitters.
Agreed, he won’t hurt you in any category, and will actually help you in three of five
Yeah. Ended up taking Max Kepler a couple of rounds later to balance out Rosario. Separately, they have shortcomings. Together, they are 2 pretty solid players.
Yeah, like them both
Hey Grey! Man it feels good to be champ after lots of frustrating years…thanks again for all the help!!
Just decided to check in on your thoughts for 2020, its hard to know how a draft will go, but I want to ask for your strategy in this particular league in terms of where to draft certain positions. Thanks in advance and Happy Thanksgiving!!! -G
10 team h2h 8×8 league
offense(R,HR,TB,RBI, offensive K’s,SB,AVG,OPS)
Pitching (K,W,L, QS, ERA, WHIP, Holds,Saves)
Off cats: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, IF, LF, CF, RF, OF, 2 Util
Pitching: 4 SP, 4 RP, 4 Pitchers of any kind.
No problem!
I’d lean heavily on OPS and would draft an ace… Would underdraft SBs and RPs
Awesome thanks Grey!!!
No problem, Gary!
Amed has 100% been on my guy I wants shares of next year list so this is encouraging to see from you.
Guy in my league is offering me
Adell and Cole for Acuna
Or
Alonso and Robert for Cole
Any of those seem like they should be worth considering?
They both seem fair, but I’m not really into the idea of trading Acuna, esp for a pitcher (no matter how good he is)
The Alonso/Robert one I could prob swing as my OF set is and I have Bell as a backup 1b
What’s your thoughts Grey and thanks for the content in the offseason, still reading everyday!
Nice!
I’d take Acuna ond Alonso sides… Acuna is slam dunk for him; Alonso/Robert or Cole is super fair tho
Thanks Grey, I think I am going to hold on both trades and just keep my guys. After further looking at my squad I honestly don’t think I should be trading anyone (maybe Blackmon with his age) but I think I am stronger holding onto Acuna, Alonso and Robert. I genuinely don’t think I have many holes outside of building a bullpen.
C- Grandal
1B- Alonso
2B- Torres/Villar
SS- Baez
3B- J-Ram
OF -Blackmon, Acuna, Bryant
UTL/Bench – Donaldson/Soler/Josh Bell/Puig
Pitchers are:
Nola
Bauer
Gray
Wheeler
Paddack
Ray
Darvish
Foltynewicz
Hamels
Lynn
Minor Leagues
Luis Robert
Brusdar Graterol
Brujan
Bart
Yeah, I think that’s smart… No reason to push it… Your team looks dope, outside of RPs
Sincerely appreciate that compliment Grey, I worked hard to get there with it. I took over for another owner for the start of 2017 with 0 dynasty or fantasy baseball experience to my name with the squad below (I am pretty sure he just gave up).
If you ever wanted to see how much of an impact one site can have on someone, be proud of what you have built up here at Razzball. I found this site by accident, but your writing style, additional writers (Ralph is someone else who gets a lot of credit from me), and just the overall content in general was beyond helpful and impactful. So you can help take some credit for the squad haha. You have earned the right to first website I check when I wake up at 6am every morning.
Thanks for the off-season banter Grey, having had much since fantasy playoffs ended haha
Bats
Matt Adams
Orlando Arcia
Nolan Arenado
Adrián Beltré
Billy Butler
Chris Carter
Starlin Castro
Francisco Cervelli
Andre Ethier
Alex Gordon
Curtis Granderson
Jedd Gyorko
Desmond Jennings
Brandon Moss
Dustin Pedroia
Alexei Ramírez
Rob Refsnyder
Mark Trumbo
Pitching
Yu Darvish
Jaime García
Jonathon Niese
Garrett Richards
Chris Sale
Ervin Santana
Héctor Santiago
Masahiro Tanaka
Jordan Zimmermann
Thanks, appreciate it! That team is gnarly!
So .290 and 20 steals is Betts and Ahmed and no one else, huh?
In the immortal words of Lee Corso: Not So Fast my friend!!!
Story hit .294, stole 23 bags, and also hit 35 Bombs while batting leadoff.
Never, ever, never disrespect my boy T-Story. For I will be here to right any wrongs done in his name!!! Carry on! :o)
Haha
BTW, I agree Story has a chance at 20 SBs/.290, but I’m lower on his speed
Wait, wait, wait!!!
This should be Story’s BEST year!!!
He’s going into his age 27 season, which is typical age for the “breakout.” … He’s the perfect age. I fully expect a career year this season, possible 37-38 HR and 25-30 bags.
Go lower on his speed next year! But don’t expect it to tail off suddenly this year. Won’t happen! Speed seems to decline really around age 29 and beyond, or at least that’s what I’ve picked up on the last few years.
Yeah, maybe, but he’s close to 20 bags either way… and I like him so not going to disagree
Looks like we agree to agree!!!
What are your thoughts on Hiura this year and going forward. I have him as a round 19 value moving forward to keep as long as I want. Lots of trade interest for him. I won the league last year and have more than enough guys to keep, but wondering where you have him valued. Thanks.
I love Keston, could be a 30/15/.280 guy… Huge value in 19th round
Thanks!
No problem
I meant to say he’d count as my round 19 pick, if I wasn’t clear enough the first go around.
You’ve got a major steal with Hiura in the 19th round. He’s not got Mondessi speed but he’s going to get you 20-25 bags and he’s going to hit you 30 bombs. And his average is going to sit close to .300. That’s a top 50 bat right there!
Yup got it
You’re on the clock Albright
Woohoo! Looking now
What draft is this? Link? I’d like to keep up!!