Ambulance Chasers: Steer Away From Spencer

Oh boy, it is the BEST time of the year. MLB teams are finally announcing injuries and updates on their players after we sickos have been drafting them for months!

While most updates are benign and others are known issues (i.e. player returning from Tommy John), there are always a handful that may cause whiplash. “Johnson Smith’s elbow is barking louder than the Tramp when Lady was getting chased” is always nice to hear after filling your best ball bags with him since December (shoutout to Underdog’s Dinger contest use promo code ROTOSURGEON when signing up for bonus mula).

Nevertheless, the season is still over a month away and we will continue to be bombarded by reports across the league. Here are the ones that matter as of now.

Preseason Injury Reports To Monitor

Spencer Steer (3B/OF, CIN), shoulder: The Reds’ run of luck with various offensive pieces across the past 12 months is awful. Christian Encarnacion-Strand broke his wrist. TJ Friedl broke his wrist AND thumb. Noelvi Marte was suspended for PEDs. Matt McLain did not play a single game due to shoulder surgery.

Now, Spencer Steer is dealing with a “sore shoulder” which began towards the end of LAST season. While this may be mild and not require surgery, the Reds have bad juju all around them until proven otherwise. Also, Steer is a tough fantasy evaluation given that he is not a good MLB player. He’s atrocious in the outfield and cannot be hidden at 1B this season due to CES’s return.

Steer is an average real-life bat (96 wRC+ in 2024) and only “produces” counting stats due to volume and lineup position. The Reds also may *platoon* him (and not the ok for fantasy baseball side)!

Fancy Rob Refsnyder going in the top 100?? Not on my watch! Until Steer is cleared from this injury, he is not worth drafting around ADP…even then, I probably will not.

Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) ankle: Freddie Freeman’s ankle injury only added to his legacy in the Dodgers’ 2024 World Series run. However, a 162-game season is a different beast than a postseason run with breaks and regular days off. Freeman underwent surgery expeditiously but is still not 100%

The Dodgers claim that Freeman should be cleared for their Tokyo series next month. While likely, some caution in upcoming drafts is warranted given that Freeman is 35 years old and coming off of major surgery for the first time in his career. The veteran first baseman should remain one of baseball’s best contact hitters. However, potentially losing those steals and some power could sting at his top-two-round cost. If you need a first baseman, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper should come first but Freddie Freeman is a fine target in the late second or early third.

Trevor Megill (RP, MIL), undisclosed: “Undisclosed” injuries are never good. They are even worse for players who are only valuable due to the role they play in a bullpen. Trevor Megill was a breakout closer last season after Devin Williams’ injury. His frame and velocity are both massive but that won’t matter if he’s hurt.

Hopefully, this issue is minor and overblown (by me) but given that Megill took time to gain the closer role and lost it upon Devin Williams’ return, there is reason to believe he could lose it to someone who starts the season hot if he’s hurt. Joel Payamps and Nick Mears both are righties and have solid fastballs.

If Megill is out for an extended period, keep an eye on them (Mears > Payamps in skill but Payamps will get first crack).

Spencer Strider (SP, ATL) elbow: Do not let the tantalizing mustache and tight pants fool you, Spencer Strider is still returning from Tommy John Surgery after the bare minimum timeline of nine months. The 26-year-old ace should get back to form eventually but we do not have enough information on the newer procedure he received.

TJ has advanced in recent years with the addition of an internal brace. This allows athletes to return to play sooner but at what cost? Over 50% of Strider’s pitches yearly are his fastball which averages 97-98MPH. Can he sustain that velocity five innings into a game?

Not all pitchers are the same, especially those young and built like Strider, but it is tough to buy into a workhorse who relies on immense velocity this soon.

Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SF), shoulder: Jung Hoo Lee damaged his shoulder last May after crashing into the outfield wall. He underwent surgery shortly after and is reportedly 100% heading into Spring Training. The Korean outfielder signed a massive six-year contract last offseason and will look to make good on it in 2025.

Last season, Lee slashed .262/.310/.331 in 37 games with just two home runs and two stolen bases. Luckily (for drafters), Lee was very unlucky offensively as both his expected average (.278) and expected slugging (.404) were higher than his actual production. Shoulder surgery does not help but we’re trusting the actual doctors on this one! If Lee shows some pop in Spring, I’d pop on him in drafts.

Zach Neto (SS, LAA), shoulder: Unlike Lee, Zach Neto underwent shoulder surgery after the season rather than midseason. These are almost universally the type of situation I would avoid even with “positive” reports about Neto feeling strong. He is still a question mark for Opening Day and is much more likely than Lee to have his performance impacted by surgery.

Baseball players need routine and repetition to succeed. Offseason surgery often hampers that as hitters may build bad swing habits if returning too soon. Neto’s rookie season was fantastic but he is not an elite hitter. His wOBA outperformed his xwOBA and he hit just .249. The margin for error is low on a bat like his for now.

Most young athletes can be expected to improve this early in their careers but the risk is too high here given the brevity of MLB’s offseason and his likelihood to begin this season on IL. Also, the Angels’ organization is maybe the worst to trust with injuries/recoveries (Happy Trails, Anthony Rendon!).