If sites were to take our end-of-the-year Player Rater and just copy it over for their starting ADP, it would likely be better than what they start with. Sure, you’d miss a few guys like Ronald Acuña Jr. who missed most of last year, and maybe you have to move down a few guys like Chris Sale, because they finished in the top 10 overall and you wouldn’t draft them there. Okay, maybe some of you would. I say this because while looking for 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers, I went to look at early ADP and compared it to where guys finished on the Player Rater last year and some were just so puzzling. Ian Happ was the 12th best outfielder last year and finished in the top 50 overall. He’s currently being drafted after 150 overall. Some incredible value to be had there. Taylor Ward was the 25th best OF last year, and 93rd overall, and is currently being drafted around 200th overall and 50th OF. I didn’t write up a Ian Happ sleeper because he’s boring and I don’t want to talk about him for 750 words. I didn’t write up a Taylor Ward sleeper because I did in 2023 and I’d say a lot of the same things. Do I like both for their value? Yes. They’re easy sleepers. With that in mind, Alec Burleson was the 21st best OF last year and the 79th best player overall. He’s currently 210th overall and 51st OF in ADP. Also, and maybe most importantly, I want to talk about him. So, what can we expect from Alec Burleson for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’m rolling out my 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Alec Burleson sleeper:
Alec Burleson had a 12.8 K% in his first season of everyday at-bats. Again, for the people in the back, he had a 12.8 strikeout rate. That’s 7th best in the league. There’s no flukes in the top 25. You don’t trip and Mr. Magoo into a great strikeout rate. A lot of the guys in the top 25 for contact are whatever. Like Arraez or teammate Brendan Donovan or Steve Kwan or Sal Frelick or Yandy Diaz, for an example with giant muscles. Lowest average in the top 10 for contact is .260. It’s not going to be surprising to hear Alec Burleson is neutrally a .275 hitter. Very concerning or v. concerning, if you’re in a rush, is he can’t hit lefties, or didn’t last year. Which is it? I’d say it’s just last year (he hit .259 in 2023 vs. lefties, but small sample). Last year is going to rule Oli Marmol’s mind though, so it would be surprising to see Burleson face everyone. As I’ve said before, people overestimate how much it hurts a guy to not face lefties. If they struggle vs. them, then it’s better if they don’t face them. So you lose some runs and RBIs, but in most leagues, if you’re paying attention, you can just sub him out for someone with better matchups when he’s facing lefties. In the long run, you get Burleson and 24/6/.290 vs. righties and Waiver Wire Guy for 7/7/.300 and that’s an excellent Frankenoutfielder. That’s assuming a guy with only one full year under his belt at 26 can’t get better vs. lefties. Though, the Cards have not coached up any of their prospects, so it might take him being traded to another team to hit lefties. In seriousness, I’d bet on a guy like Alec Burleson learning to hit lefties since he has an under 13 K%.
Spent a lot more time than usual on average, because that is his best trait. If he hits .310+ it wouldn’t shock me. He also has no real speed. “No real speed” could still mean 12 steals with the Pitch Clock 12, but I wouldn’t count on it. He stole nine bags last year in 13 attempts, which is making the Larry David Meh face. Thankfully, he does have power. He’s an all-fields hitter, but a mostly pull power guy. He hit 38.7% to center and only 33.5% to right. If he pulls more, he might get into more power, but he’s more Alec Bohm than Kyle Tucker, when merely power is considered. I’d put Alec Burleson on a sliding scale of homers at 22-27 vs. 27-32, that doesn’t mean there’s not a ton of value here. Going back to what I said in the opening, he’s already been much better for fantasy value than where he’s being drafted, and, with that contact rate, he’s only going to get better. For 2025 fantasy, I’ll give Alec Burleson projections of 78/24/66/.287/6 in 503 ABs with a chance for more, especially if he starts hitting lefties.
