Monday begins the 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and I cannot wait for you to feast your eyes on these. Or eye, for our one eye-patched reader. Hey, Google analytics tells us everything. Argh, matey! Also, hello to our reader in Mauritius! The movie about your people was very interesting, though I honestly thought The Mauritanian was going to be in outer space and the title was a typo. Enough of that! So, I left myself one spot for one more fantasy baseball sleeper. After finishing my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings (which are available on Patreon already), I went back through all of the rankings for one guy who was jumping out as being way above in my rankings, and, well, there were about hundred guys. But I only left myself one spot for one player who I am clearly more jazzed about than others, according to NFBC ADP. Now, the NFBC ADP I’m looking at is very specific, because it’s 15-team, mixed, but if Adolis Garcia has an ADP of 160 there? Well, he might actually be ranked even later when Yahoo and ESPN drop theirs, which means I like him a lot more. Let’s take a journey through my mind and find out why Grey, in all his very special third person-esque glory, likes Adolis Garcia so much. So, what can we expect from Adolis Garcia for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
This was the moment I fell in love Adolis Garcia:
Adolis Garcia is thrown out at the plate on what would have been his 1st career HR pic.twitter.com/OmtYSmU7Mn
— VHS (@VanHicklestein) April 15, 2021
As mentioned many times on our podcast this past season, I happened to be watching Adolis in that at-bat, and I immediately grabbed him in all leagues. Really watch him there. That’s easy power the opposite way. That should get you as excited about him as me. If it doesn’t, up your medication. Your heart’s missing a pitter-patter.
Maybe it’s the Rangers’ grays, but Adolis Garcia kinda reminds me of Adrian Beltre there. Adolis Garcia didn’t get that home run, that should’ve been, but he went on to hit 31 of them in 581 ABs, and 16 were straightaway or to the opposite field. He is not a guy who was hitting wall-scrappers, except for that home run that wasn’t. (By the way, pretty impressive we have instant replay and a home run call is still wrong. Not easy to pull off! Maybe our one-eyed reader works in MLB’s replay office in New York. Argh, do better!)
Now I could get wrapped up in the unable-to-answer puzzle of why Adolis Garcia isn’t garnering more interest in early drafts, but I was supposed to be resting my brain. Let’s take Daddy out of it, and look at Steamer projections for Adolis Garcia and Christian Yelich, who is being drafted way before him, 26/13/.227 in 146 games vs. 25/12/.258 in 146 games. Essentially the same minus average. So, can Adolis make up that ground in average? Yes, and probably no, but let’s take a looksie.
Adolis Garcia just hit .243 in 149 games with a .306 BABIP. Adolis hits the ball hard 45.3% of the time, same-ish as Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley (and other non-Braves), so I think his BABIP could get better, and others think it’s gonna come down. His batted ball profile (GB, FB, LD) is most similar to Mitch Haniger, who just hit 39 homers. The power should be there — Adolis just went 31/16 in the majors, and 32/14 in his final Triple-A year. Adolis strikes out a bit much, and doesn’t walk at all. The bottoming out of the average is potentially there. It’s a concern, but Adolis has way more upside than, say, Yelich. Not to mention, the Rangers’ lineup got much better this offseason.
People must be looking at Adolis Garcia as a fluke, but I’m looking at him as a late-bloomer who just happened to come up with little fanfare. Hey, it happens. Wait, are you thinking Adolis Garcia is the next coming of Kyle Lewis? Don’t put your shizz on him! That’s unfair. They’re different players, not to mention, Kyle Lewis may not have been bad last year; he was injured! Yes, I’m still holding out hope. For 2022, I’ll give Adolis Garcia projections of 81/32/92/.238/12 in 579 ABs with a chance for much more.
A Late Boomer, even.
Indeed!
Dude pretty much kept my team afloat after I drafted Story-Belli 1-2 :-(
Ouch, what a 1-2 punch
And Eloy in the 4th. Good times.
Oh man, that hurts
Man, I have a share of Adolis Garcia and I’m worried about how his average plummeted after that hot month he had to begin with. He still hit bombs but his average was abysmal. Still, I really hope your projections are right. He’d easily be worth owning if he can put up those kinds of numbers!
Good stuff!
Thanks!
Adolis Garcia… i will have to target him late this year. I have him on my current roster but that 2nd half was brutal.
anyway, i was sent a juicy proposal last night – 12 Team H2H keeper league. We keep 10 guys. I have the #1 overall pick and I am leaning towards Baz (gausman, verlander will be available most likely). I was offered Jram and 1.2 pick for my Walker Buhler and 1.1 pick.
Current Roster:
1st Olson
2nd Mookie
SS Bo
OF Yordan
OF K. Tucker
OF Jrod
UTL Abreu
SP Buhler
SP P. Lopez
SP. T. Rogers
Thoughts?
I could also trade Abreu for Gausman and a 3rd pick i bet.
I’d move Abreu for Gausman and take JRam
Man, the hardest advice in all the years of reading Razzball is not to let bad AVG sway me too much. Low AVG players like Adolis or an Ian Happ always hold me back. And I’m not faulting Razzball, I’m saying overcoming that particular stat is a skill I have not yet mastered. Even after avoiding players like, I still find myself in 6th place in the AVG half way through the year! Maybe I should target a Tim Anderson a little harder to counter it?
Speaking of Kyle Lewis. Thank you for the little nugget! I have been holding on to him in my dynasties. Still some hope there.
Does that make me a contradickting AVG whore? Keeping Lewis, but being scittish on Happ/Adolis.
Thank you for all the sleepers and the advice all these years. This site has been so helpful AND fun for so long. I am truly thankful for the work all the writers and everyone involved do.
Average is so fickle….not great to punt it, but think about the bet made to get average with Alec Bohm last year…or Yelich or Betts….Anderson might not hit for a great average either (though, he should)….yeah, I like Lewis still, he’s much cheaper now too — thanks for the kind words!
Picked up Adolis and Shane McC for Will Smith and Yu…18 team.. 5×5…dynasty…the guy I traded with won the league…pretty psyched to see these sleeper post recently…great work! You are the gold standard in fantasy baseball writing!
Thanks!
You think giving Torkelson and Trevor Rogers to get Buehler is a good deal? I already have Olson and Vlad as keepers. I’d be pairing Buehler with Alcantara as my keeper arms. Thanks
Works for me
Thanks for the great write-up on Adolis. I similarly grabbed him last season and excited to keep him in my AL only 10 team roto this season. The avg is tough but love the production contribution in the other 4 hitting categories.
Standard 10 team NL -only 5×5 roto. I have a dynamic duo of Soto ($23) and Acuna ($28) – prices increase $5 each season. I also have Trea at $37, so likely the last year with this 3some.
Thoughts on trading Acuna for Tatis ($23)? Both have injury concerns, but what do say about that move for this season and beyond?
I’d take Tatis
Will always have a soft spot for Adolis Garcia since I picked him up the day Mike Trout went down and got .240 / 24 / 71 / 15 out of him to help me win the league. But he really tanked in the 2nd half of the season, hitting under .220 with 11 home runs July-October after a much stronger first half (.260ish with 20 home runs April-June). That 2nd half is probably what’s keeping him down in drafts so far.
Yeah, that could be on the 2nd half
Hello Grey,
How close are Adolis and Mountcastle? Where do you see them in your top 100?
Thanks
They’re pretty close…I’m not done with the top 100 yet
Top 6 keepers in this h2h category league with QS, OBP, TB and K-BB. Thanks!
Tatis $33
Alcantara $13
Mullins $10
Votto $9
Donaldson $8
Lynn $5
McClanahan $5
Carrasco $5
Rodgers $4
Manoah $3
Severino $3
Julio Rodriguez $1
Tatis $33
Alcantara $13
Mullins $10
Lynn $5
Julio Rodriguez
Alek Manoah…Lots of options tho
The Beltre comparison seems like a stretch to me at least until I see more. I was thinking more along the lines of Odor when I look at that obp of .256 in the second half or maybe even Todd Frazier at best. OBP is less fickle than average. His minor league walk and k rates were not great, so I’m not sure how much it will improve.
BTW, I am noticing ads showing up with the new website despite my membership. I am sure bugs are still being worked out. Thanks
Oh, I doubt his walk or K rates improve much…But they can be what they were and he can go 30/10/.240
The ad-free is still being worked out, I’m sorry, we’re trying to fix all bugs but some are harder
Thoughts on this trade. Keeper league, each player has this year and next year eligibility.
Catcher Will Smith $9 for Kelenic $10 and Kimbrel $5
Kelenic
Thanks. I made the trade mainly on your Kelenic sleeper post. Kimbrel will most likely be a drop unless he’s traded and is a clear closer.
I do like Smith if there is a universal DH- 80+ ABs could get him close to 30 HRs with a solid average in 4 slot.
Yeah, maybe with Smith, but if you can trade away a catcher for a solid piece, you do it
Agree.
Thanks Grey!!! Would love your trade thoughts
$1000 H2H Pts League
C Burnes ($40) for L Gilbert ($20), J Rod ($40) and Rutschman ($20). This team is built to win now, I don’t care about Catchers and there are always more prospects and cheap mid level pitchers out there. But 3 months from now I could really be kicking myself….
How deep is this league?
12
Man, that’s tough, but I think you have to keep the #1 SP in the game
Player cost is +$20 per year
I could be convinced of going the other way tho, bc that is a haul
I know right?! Thanks Grey!
No problem
We know Yelich’s upside is MVP level because he won one and finished 2nd just two and three years ago. And Adolis has higher upside than that?!? Count me in!
Then the current iteration of Yelich, yeah
Anyone know if the podcasts are on this site yet?
New podcast coming next week
El Bombi!
Yes!
Grey,
Missed a chance to ask you this the other day about Bailey Ober. Do you think the high HR rate could be attributed to him tipping his pitches? I’m just trying to find any reason that could explain it. Thanks!
It makes more sense than anything else I’ve heard
Need to call out that the skepticism is mostly coming from his splits. 22 HR to 9 first half vs second half kind of sums it up for me.
Yeah, but why would his 2nd half be his new normal?
Seems like his new normal would be somewhere in between. Say 13 or 14.
Yeah, perhaps
Push comes to shove? Are you taking Bellinger,Yelich or Stanton? Thanks.
Love the write up on Adolis. I can keep him for $8 but also have some SP needs that I’d like to try and acquire.
Standard 5×5 AL only roto
Adolis ($8) or Manoah ($8)?
Alek