The first thing I like to do for all prospects, Aaron Judge included, is look up their video highlights, because I’m not familiar with them as much as I want to be.  Aaron Judge looks like Giancarlo Stanton.  A few things on comparing him to Giancarlo.  I did it first, then Googled Aaron Judge + Giancarlo and a lot, I mean, a lot of people have compared the two.  That means nothing, because now I’m comparing him to Giancarlo and Giancarlo is my novio and we have a daughter together that we named Giancarla, so when I compare someone to Giancarlo, it is said with profound love and a sharp crease in my khakis.  I don’t think I’ve ever compared another player to Giancarlo before.  That is the kind of praise Aaron Judge is currently receiving.  If Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall would’ve starred in a movie about this Judge, the movie would’ve been good.  You feel me?  Okay, stop touching me now.  Judge looks like he could hit 40 homers with the Yankees tomorrow.   That’s, of course, if there were games tomorrow.  (Only 140 more days without baseball!)  I don’t think Judge is 100% butter, i.e., as good as Giancarlo.  I’m not just saying that because Giancarlo and I have matching tattoos.  The stats seem to bear that out, or bare if you’re a nudist.  In Double-A, Judge hit 12 homers in 63 games at the age of 23.  Giancarlo hit 21 homers in 53 games in Double-A at the age of 20, then hit 20 homers that same year with the Marlins.  Giancarlo is a once-in-a-decade bat; Judge is similar, just not quite there, which in itself is very impressive.  And it’s not just that Judge stands six-seven and is 230 pounds bone-dry.  His swing looks like my Gian-novio.  Judge is a giant beast of a man and mollywhops with the best of them.  This is not fiction, this is biographical, researchable evidence.  Anyway, what can we expect of Aaron Judge for 2016 fantasy baseball?

In Triple-A last year, he was a tad overmatched (hit .224), but had some bad luck with balls hit into play (.289 BABIP) while also hitting 8 homers and stealing six steals.  I’m kinda between him being a perennial All-Star and a prime Nick Swisher.  Before you scoff, you scoffer, a prime Nick Swisher is 35 homers and a .250 average.  That’s not exactly awful.  What excites me the most with Judge is he looks really close.  Close is good.  Close is what I focus on, because, even in keepers, while it’s nice to worry about 2019, I want to win a championship every year, not just one in four years.  Judge is not April close though.  Cashman has already said Judge won’t be ready at the “front end of 2016.”  But if he’s not up by June, it’s because he was injured.  The Yankees outfield is two parts old and one part getting older.  Beltran is the Yankees plan for right field in April of 2016.  After all, they’ve already bought all of that gauze to hold his Mummy dust bones together.  On the fo’reallies, Beltran will be hurt by June and Judge will be up.  If Judge’s 28.5% K-rate in Triple-A is any indication, he’s going to be lucky to hit .230 next year in the majors, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was adjusting.  The power will play anywhere and he has some slight speed.  For 2016, I’ll give him the line of 36/16/44/.241/4 with a June call-up and 300 ABs.  Just in case he breaks camp with the club, I’d grab him in very deep leagues in March, then you can Judge for yourself!

 
  1. Running Frog says:
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    Killing it softly as always, Grey…

    Some way-too-early 2016 keeper strategy for you. My league has $5 salary escalation per year, with a $10 minimum. Keep a guy as long as you want to keep bumping by $5. So a guy that was $1 last year is $10 in 2016. a $6 guy is $11, and a $30 guy is $35 etc. And a $10 2016 guy is $15 in 2017, $20 in 2018 etc. ESPN league with $260 budgets standard 5×5.

    My current roster and their 2016 cost:

    Greg Bird $10
    Javier Baez $10
    Kris Bryant $22
    Carlos Correa $10
    Matt Duffy $10
    Manny Machado $14
    Starling Marte $25
    JD Martinez $11
    Billy Burns $10
    David Peralta $10
    Stephen Piscotty $10
    Miguel Sano $10
    Randal Grichuk $10
    Khris Davis $10
    Hector Olivera $10

    Stephen Strasburg $30
    Jacob DeGrom $15
    Noah Syndergaard $10
    Carlos Martinez $10
    Chris Archer $10
    Andrew Heaney $10
    Yu Darvish $10
    Julio Urias $10
    Marcus Stroman $10
    Raisel Iglesias $10
    Carter Capps $10
    Tom Wilhelmsen $10

    My current thoughts:

    Definite keepers: Bryant, Correa, Machado, JD Martinez, Sano, DeGrom, Syndergaard, C Martinez, Archer

    Leaning toward keeping (depending on news between now and then): Peralta, Strasburg, Urias

    Leaning against keeping (but might): Bird (if Teix gone), Baez, Marte, Burns, Grichuk, Davis, Darvish, Stroman, Capps (if designated closer),

    No’s: Duffy (3B-only kills him for me), Piscotty, Olivera, Heaney, Iglesias, Wilhelmsen

    I buy a $1 catcher and a $1 MI every year, and have for a decade or more. Never had a problem outperforming at those two positions with midseason guys.

    Anybody you strongly disagree with at this point? Current plan would be to buy 3-4 SAGNOF closers, dominate the pitching stats, and spend the rest of my remaining budget on hitting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      How many do you keep?

      • Running Frog says:
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        @Grey: Keep as many as you want (subject to the $260 total budget)

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Running Frog: I think that Marte would be a better keeper for you than Strasburg. His speed would balance your offense since Bryant, JD, and Sano lean more heavily on the power side (and even Correa and Machado slightly so). You’d pocket an extra $5 with that change too.

      deGrom, Syndergaard, C-Mart, and Archer give you a formidable top four. Could always reacquire Strasburg on draft day if you feel the need to.

      Unless you have a minor league slot for Urias, might want to consider Stroman over him too. He’ll probably just be a September call-up next year, then you’d be keeping him at $15 on an innings limit in ’17. He’d have an ace price tag by ’18. Might not be worth it.

      • Running Frog says:
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        @Big Magoo: It’s a league where people overpay for starting pitching. I might be able to get Strasburg back for less than $30, but I could see a lot of owners in that league doubling his post June 1 numbers and deciding he’s a $35+ guy. If Darvish looks healthy in spring, I probably keep him instead and throw Stressbird back. I admit I have a softspot for him. Watched him pitch in person at SDSU a half dozen times.

        As for Marte, I think his speed days are done. I was happy with his results last year, and I grant that he had five consecutive 5+ SB months to close out the season. But for some reason my gut tells me he doesn’t break 18 next year. And while a 22 HR / 18 SB guy is still very valuable, I don’t think it’s $25 well spent for my roster. I won SB in that league essentially with the roster you see (other than having Rizzo in the first half), and I tend to do fine at grabbing the Billy Burns of the world cheap.

        I’m hoping other people in my league view Marte the way the commenters have so far, and maybe I can deal him for a 1B in the offseason. I have “too many” guys that look like 2017 keepers at this point, and with $5 escalations I don’t mind renting a one year guy at 1B who moves on to free up salary cap the next year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Running Frog: I’d also keep Stroman, Marte, Burns, Darvish and likely Baez if he has a starting job, but hard to say without knowing the size of your league

      • Running Frog says:
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        @Grey: 10 teamer. Standard ESPN with the only exception being we have 3 DL slots instead of 1 (which is why I didn’t mind keeping Darvish all year)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gotcha, so you kept Darvish all year and now you’re gonna lose him?

          • Running Frog says:
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            @Grey: I spent $5 on him and he sat in a DL slot after the first week (weekly league), so he wasn’t using much in the way of resources (I didn’t even use up my $260 budget in the auction). It effectively cost me nothing to keep him last year, unlike Correa or Sano, who I bought for $1 and then had to use precious bench slots on for months before call up.

            Plus I doubt you’re actually suggesting I make decisions based on sunk costs. We both know it’s the marginal costs that matter. ;)

            I held him last year as a $5 lottery ticket. Figuring he would either be a $20 guy I’d keep for $10 in 2016, or a guy I would cut. I just hope we get real feedback on his recovery before it’s time for cuts. The Rangers haven’t exactly provided regular updates.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nah, not saying you keep him due to sunk costs, but I’m just trying to understand why you bothered holding him all year if you had no intention of keeping him…. You should just be able to put him in your DL again until he’s back

              • M says:
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                @Grey: Darvish is expected back late May/early June

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, so?

  2. Strolg says:
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    Marte isn’t worth $25? Yu has to be worth $10 if he appears healthy in preseason as well. Wouldn’t keep Stressbird, particularly if Yu is healthy. Spend the dough on hitting. You already have a solid staff and can streamanator the rest.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree

  3. Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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    Re: Judge… sure the dude is a physical specimen, but it’s tough for me to get excited about a guy who will turn 24 before ever sniffing the majors… good point on Stanton comp vis a vis age/level. To hammer the obvious, Stanton will be 26 in a couple days and has been in the bigs for 6 years. Harper is 23 , been in bigs four years. I dunno…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I think my Swisher comp is accurate… Judge should get a few years of 30+ homers, but don’t think he reaches insane levels

      • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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        @Grey: Totally. Not that he is “old”… I just think college guys are at a disadvantage, they get rushed + are old for most milb levels, and their prime windows are smaller/shorter.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He does physically look like Giancarlo though

  4. Big W says:
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    Up until AAA Judge was a good contact hitter, hitting the gaps. Similar to a Jeter… He was known for having a good eye at the plate and not chasing pitches with a better than average K rate… But that all changed when we got to AAA. He wasn’t in AAA all season so perhaps it was just an adjustment period. Scouts always said his hitting tool was definately there and the power was surely to come as he developed.

    I think he has the upside of a Giancarlo, but with better contact… Hope I’m right because I picked him up in my Keeper League mid last year with the intention of making him one of my 12 keepers!

    Cheers Grey… Have a good offseason! looking forward to reading your brilliant work while I count down the days till baseball starts up again!

    Big W

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, W! The K-rate in Triple-A is a bit scary, but he could make strides with it

  5. J-FOH says:
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    This is funny that you comped Judge to Giancarlo… even though they dont really comp in the stat line. This past year in the RazzNasty league Ralph (the soccer guy) traded Giancarlo for Judge and Greinke. I think a draft pick got kicked in too.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That wasn’t a bad trade for last year if he needed pitching to win… Kinda bleh long term

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: that’s the league I scored 156 out of 160. It was over in June. He had no chace to win.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hmm… Then he had his reasons I guess

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: yeah, a big boner for Judge

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, and that

  6. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Can’t wait for today’s buy/sell!

    *checks calendar*

    *sobs quietly in corner*

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Aw, Magoo…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: If I didn’t talk to him a few times a week, I could imagine him sitting catatonic in his recliner since the last day of the season

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Who? Ralph?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: no Magoo, the guy we are talking too

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: The mental break was nice for a minute, but I’m starting to experience withdrawal symptoms now. The winter meetings are so far away…

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Big Magoo: I need some video game baseball

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @J-FOH: Ken Griffey Jr’s Winning Run. You can play as Big Magoo!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          But Miller got traded for Karns!

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: That’s like being famished and having a cold bowl of Ramen noodles as your only food option

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Big Magoo: It’s okay buddy, we’ll get through this together *cracks beer*

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        The girl next to me just ordered a bar with lunch… I shivered… I don’t understand how people day drink…

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Grey: Not a Friday happy hour guy?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Nah, I’m not really a drinker, in general

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @Grey: It’s the offseason. Time for a new hobby!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                I’m working on it!

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Grey: you probably dont understand how people can drink more than two beers in a sitting

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            That too

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @J-FOH: I’ll be doing that in a few short hours…

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Big Magoo: Ive been thinking i need to kep light beer around my house for day drinking instead of water

  7. cdadare says:
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    Grey, better late than never, I go so wrapped up in the NFL & MLB Playoffs, that I forgot to thank you & that wondrous brain of yours for leading me to yet another Fantasy title!

    Don’t leave us Razzballers any time soon, OK? SKY about killed me when he said he wasn’t doing NFL this year, so I don’t think I can take a double shot!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, no problem, congrats on the win!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @cdadare: you can always tweet at Sky if you miss him

  8. J-FOH says:
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    I’m so bored! I might do something drastic and go to the gym

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      NO! Don’t do it! Make carnitas or something!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: *gets out of fetal position* Pork taquitos? Challenge accepted

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: speaking of cooking, what happened to your master chef audition

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              They needed me from January through end of April and that wasn’t going to happen… Now that I think back on past contestants, none of them have real jobs… Not that I do either…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: are you saying rudy and sky couldn’t hold down the fort?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Saying I wouldn’t want to be away for 4 months

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: makes sense, you would not get the love on there like you get here

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha

    • nick the dick says:
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      @J-FOH: That’s a bit drastic

    • nick the dick says:
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      @J-FOH: As I realize you said that already

      • J-FOH says:
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        @nick the dick: it deserved to be said twice

        • nick the dick says:
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          @J-FOH: Look on the bright side, a Yankee prospect that Grey compared to Giancarlo. It’s a glorious day!

          • J-FOH says:
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            @nick the dick: but he didn’t. I can’t own him because I’m allergic to Yankees and therefore I’m out….I sound like Lorie

            • nick the dick says:
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              @J-FOH: Oh but he did. Comparing his physical build to Gianny means much more than comparing any of his tools….except maybe one

              • J-FOH says:
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                @nick the dick: physique and dongs have nothing to do with fantasy relevance, thats wha I read and what I know about Judge

                • nick the dick says:
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                  @J-FOH: Oh, but not liking Yankees is fantasy relevant? Pfft

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @nick the dick: I owned them, was just watching Shark Tank and felt like jerking your chain

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: Just leave my lady Lorie out of it!

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      she’s a twat

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: But a hot to trot twat

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      yeah, I’d drop a load on her

                • nick the dick says:
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                  @J-FOH: and dongs are so fantasy relevant

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @nick the dick: I bet you got lots of dongs in your fantasies

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: Haha

  9. nick the dick says:
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    You wish you were at the bar listening to Ronny Dick rock the ladies panties off less? Here I go about to belt out ‘At This Moment’ wish me luck

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Get her, Nick!

  10. Running Frog says:
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    I noticed that the early 2016 Steamer projections are out. I have to chuckle about a couple of them. But it did catch my eye that they project only one 20/20 guy in MLB next year, Carlos Correa. There’s a few others that are close, including two other Astros that just miss (CarGom at 19/24 and Springer at 29/18). But the only one they are predicting at this point is Correa.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, saw that too… Steamer doesn’t do playing time so Springer could be 20/20 if you believe he’ll player 150 games or Gomez if you believe 150 games…

      • Running Frog says:
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        @Grey: I like their projection for Don’t-Call-Me-Mike, They have him with a .943 OPS with exactly 1 PA.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Giancarlo?

  11. Connor says:
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    Grey, I’m joining a 30-team dynasty league where you get to choose a real life team and take 10 players from anywhere in their system to start. Any suggestions? Cubs, Cardinals, A’s, Rangers are all taken. I’m thinking Twins maybe?

    • Connor says:
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      @Connor: Or Blue Jays if I just wanted to grab all their big hitters.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Dodgers

      • Connor says:
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        @Grey: Dodgers are actually the one other team taken lol. Sorry forgot to list them.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Connor: Rockies? Have you asked Mike?

      • Connor says:
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        @J-FOH: Yeah they were also a thought. I just asked in Mike’s Rockies post.

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Connor: what is left?

          • Connor says:
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            @J-FOH: All that I didn’t list above.

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Connor: astros

              • nick the dick says:
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                @J-FOH: I was going to say Astros. Awesome farm system and plenty of keepble players on the MLB roster

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Rockies aren’t a bad idea, just take all bats… Twins aren’t a good idea

    • Running Frog says:
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      @Connor: Man, that league idea sounds awesome…

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @Connor: i’m in leagues that start like that (but 20 teams),and we can keep up to full roster at the start. i’m in a redraft version where you can keep the team you had in previous year (i came in in June in this one and took over NYM and won), or grab one of the other 10 teams (also a 20). When i took over NYM i figured by 2016 i’d want a different team (SD looked good on paper back in june), but with NYM’s crazy good SP i think i’ll just stick with them, esp if cespedes comes back.

  12. J-FOH says:
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    I saw that the Rockies have had internal discussion for Murphy. I said that in here and talked about it with magoo months ago….I could work for the Rockies!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Had an internal discussion for Murphy? Huh?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: he can play first, provide solid veteran leadership, which they sorely need now that Tulo is gone

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Who? Tom Murphy?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: Danny Boy Murphy

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh, gotcha

              • SteveNZ says:
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                @Grey: I suspect Murphy might find the state of Colorado a little too liberal for his tastes.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Haha, so true

  13. Justin Huyett says:
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    Do I protect Buxton?

    Others
    Encarnacion
    Miggy Cabrera
    Bogaerts
    Cespedes
    Polanco
    Betts
    Rusney Castillo
    Soler
    Trout
    Archer
    D Salazar

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Instead of one of these guys or in addition?

  14. Mike, Myth, Legend. says:
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    Grey,

    Judge is a prospect that reminds me a lot of Jorge Soler (same age, similar K% issues, similar monstrous power upside)….and I am curious what you make of Soler going forward.

    Looking at Soler’s final ~50 games (counting playoffs)….he had..

    179 PA’s
    47 K’s (26%)
    21 BB’s (11.7 %, in line with his minors walk rate)
    9 HR’s (roughly a 30 HR pace)
    7 2B’s

    Do you make much of those kind of improvements from a guy Soler’s age, or is that just too short of a window for us to make much of?

    That pace over a full 162 games, is pretty in line with what we saw from Justin Upton this year……you think that kind of production is possible for Soler when fully matures, or are you less optimistic about him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I like Soler a lot, could take a huge jump forward in 2015

  15. J-FOH says:
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    you watch Masterchef Junior

Comments are closed.