Howdy Razzballero! Starting next week we’ll dive right into the weekly regular season content (trash/treasure and bear/bull), but I’d like to take this opportunity (since we’re in the thick of draft season) to share a few thoughts on how to approach your fantasy baseball draft. I’ve made my share of mistakes on draft day over the years, and I’d like to share some of the lessons that I’ve (hopefully) learned from those mistakes with you today. Think of me as the guinea pig who’s the first one to cross the explosive pond, and then you swoop in like John Rambo to save the day. Only we’re talking about fantasy baseball, so it’s even MORE IMPORTANT! Sorry, too much coffee. But hopefully you’ll find one or two of these tips to be helpful when preparing for your drafts.
Here are a few things to consider as your draft day approaches:
• Be prepared. You know that feeling you get when the two drafters right in front of you snipe the two players that you had queued up for your next pick, then you spend half of your allotted time on the clock screaming at the computer screen and the other half scrambling for a last minute replacement? Good times! There’s no need to be that guy (or girl). Pre-rank as many players as possible before the draft in case you get booted offline or auto-pick randomly toggles on at some point. Have tiered positional ranking sheets prepared so that you know when the production falls off at each position and you’re ready to grab players before those fall offs occur. This will help to cut down on your computer screaming time considerably.
• Keep statistical goals in mind. Rudy addressed this topic in a recent article. The drafters who are aware of the numbers that they need to reach in each category to field a winning team have a significant advantage over the ones who don’t know that information. Let’s say that you have an upcoming RCL draft. The goal for homers in that format (12 team ESPN league) is 264, or roughly 20 per starting position (13 total). You decide to draft a 40 home run hitter (Trout) in the first round followed by two 30 home run hitters (Abreu and Cespedes) in the next two rounds. You’re up to 100 projected homers already, and have 160ish (or 16 per remaining starter) to go to hit your goal. Thinking about it in these terms will make it easier to make decisions between players later in a draft as well as to draft a balanced, competitive team.
• Know your format. Drafting for an RCL (daily transactions, shallow benches, games started limit for starting pitchers) is extremely different from drafting for an NFBC league (weekly lineups, FAAB bidding, more bench slots, no GS limit for pitchers), which means that players should be valued differently based on the specifics of each league. Make sure to know your league’s format inside and out prior to drafting.
• Don’t put too much stock into spring stats. Justin Upton is currently hitting .226 with zero homers this spring, while teammate Steven Moya is hitting .360 with 4 homers. Should you bump J-Up down your board and tag Moya as a mid-round target? Of course not. I almost want to smack myself for writing that sentence. Catholic guilt is a thing. Anyway, spring training is only useful for two things – determining the health status of players and determining the winners and losers of various position battles. That’s pretty much it. Oh, and a huge spring by a young player can sometimes portend a breakout season. Can Maikel Franco stop going deep already? Seriously. I’d like to own him somewhere this year.
• Don’t be a slave to ADP. This one is a biggie. Just because James Shields is still on the board twenty picks below his ADP doesn’t necessarily make him a “value” pick. ADP data is useful for identifying when certain players might be drafted, but not necessarily when they should be. Trust your rankings. You don’t want to be stuck with an underperforming player on your team because he was a good “value” on draft day. At the same time, if you really like a player, don’t just assume that he’ll be there close to his ADP, especially if he’s a buzzy young player with upside. Once you’re 10-12 rounds into your draft, go get your target players. It’s much better to grab a player that you like a round or two early than to risk missing out on that player entirely.
What are some of the things that you are mindful of on draft day?
