Week 10 Fantasy Baseball Fact Or Fiction

The weather and some of these hitters are getting HOT. Unfortunately, roster slots are finite, and we cannot pick up anyone and everyone willy-nilly.

Decisions have to be made, and if you miss out on a heater (good lord, Joc Pederson), it is not the end of the world. However, if you are like me, benching Gerrit Cole for the week because his initial start lined up against the Athletics in Sacramento, but it ended up against the lowly Royals in Kansas City, self-flagellation is warranted.

Also, whatever happened to the Royals moving in their walls for a better home run environment? I expected FIREWORKS from Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez, etc., but all we have is one big offense of meh. At least Carter Jensen is kind of breaking out, and Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP candidate? I gotta stop going all-in on marginal park improvements every offseason…

1B Spencer Horwitz (PIT)

What is not to like about a .292/.394/.470 slashline through 54 games?? Spencer Horwitz is having the best season of his career thus far and just jumped from the middle of the order to leadoff against RHP!

The former Blue Jays infielder is not raking, but seven home runs is respectable for a guy batting nearly .300. Combine that with his new leadoff role in front of a top-10 offense this season, and you have a quality fantasy bat. Think of him as a mix of good Alec Bohm and Luis Arraez. Not the sexiest names, but viable for fantasy rosters in 12+ team leagues.

Horwitz also has more walks than strikeouts this season, making him a good option in OBP leagues as well. Points leagues would be better off elsewhere, given his egregious splits against LHP.

FACT

1B/OF Gavin Sheets (SD)

Holy Sheets, Gavin is batting second for the Padres?? The former White Sox DH is on pace for his first 20+ HR season and is hitting in a prime slot for a Padres offense that should be better in the second half as Fernando Tatis Jr. continues waking up.

Unfortunately, like the aforementioned Horwitz, Sheets also struggles against LHP. He has had 25 PA against them all season and will likely continue platooning. Unlike Horwitz, Sheets has twice as many strikeouts as walks, and is hitting .252 rather than .292.

Outside of deeper formats, Sheets is nothing more than a streamer against a stretch of RHP.

FICTION

1B/2B/3B Curtis Mead (WSH)

The 2025 Spring Training darling and former trade piece for CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ is finally making some noise.

Curtis Mead is having a real breakout season with the Washington Nationals. He owns a .250/.368/.508 slashline, a .385 wOBA backed by a .375 xwOBA, eight HR, three SB, and has just three more strikeouts than walks.

While Mead began the season in a short-side platoon, he is hitting better against RHP (172 wRC+, six HR) than against LHP (110 wRC+, two HR). Typically, playing for the Nationals would be a con for most hitters, but he is regularly batting second or third, between James Wood and C.J. Abrams.

Now that Mead is an everyday player, he should be rostered in 12+ team leagues, with consideration for 10-team leagues where 3B is a weakness (or if you just lost Maikel Garcia).

FACT

UT Joc Pederson (TEX)

What a week for Young Joc. He now has eight HR this season, with five coming since May 26. The UT/DH only Pederson is a valuable fantasy asset when he hits, even in his platoon role.

The 34-year-old Pederson is making up for a lost 2025 season. His .203 BABIP and .147 ISO were both career lows, despite typical plate discipline numbers. While luck was not on his side, his xwOBA was only .315, indicating some decline. However, he is back to a quality .347 xwOBA this season, with a .354 wOBA.

Regardless, Pederson mainly benefited from a heavy stretch of poor RHP this week between the Astros and Royals. He can definitely have another hot stretch or two this season, but like Sheets, he is mainly a streamer who is best left on the waiver wire unless he can start hitting .270+ like 2022 or 2024.

FICTION

SP Walbert Urena (LAA)

The Angels have found a diamond in the rough with Walbert Urena. The hard-throwing 22-year-old RHP is flying under the radar due to his unconventional approach and lack of pedigree (also, being an Angels’ SP).

Urena is like a right-handed Framber Valdez. He does not strike out many batters (21.1%) and allows plenty of walks (12.9%), yet finds success by inducing weak contact on the ground (50.8% GB rate, 3.27 xERA).

His other peripherals are not perfect (4.38 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA), making regression inevitable. However, there is enough to like about Urena to continue holding him for the time being. His next start is against the Rockies in Anaheim. He should be fired up in all formats and evaluated weekly after.

FACT (as a streamer)

SP Gage Jump (ATH)

The Athletics called up top pitching prospect Gage Jump this past week. You could say he,,,made the Jump,,,

Enough of that…Jump is an interesting prospect, yet he may not be ready. His first start is not enough to make that claim, but it did not go smoothly. He allowed four runs in five innings, with five strikeouts, nine hits, one walk, and one HBP, which is not the worst debut. However, the Mariners are the fourth-worst offense against LHP this season.

This could be first-start jitters, a lack of seasoning, or the fact that Jump has to start all his home games in a bandbox. Sutter Field is not an ideal home park for any pitcher. It is the second-worst pitching park since last season, just behind Coors Field.

Jump was successful at each level of the minors at a solid age (22 yo in High-A and Double-A, 23 yo in Triple-A), yet we did not get enough in the higher minors to desire him in any environment. His 16.8% K-BB in Double-A improved to 21.3% in Triple-A, but we want more from top prospects debuting in the MLB

Maybe he can take a step in 2027, maybe he struggles until the Athletics settle into their Las Vegas home in 2028. I will not buy until we see in the league for a few starts in a row, specifically with multiple home starts.

FICTION (this year)

SP Troy Melton (DET)

The Tigers were forced to shut down Melton before the season due to an elbow injury, but he is back and just pitched two gems for Detroit. Melton has thrown 12 2/3 IP, with two ER, zero HR, and just eight hits allowed. He owns a 1.42 ERA through these two starts.

Unfortunately, his ERA is backed by a 4.87 xERA, 5.16 xFIP, and 5.80 SIERA. This is largely due to Melton having as many walks (four) as strikeouts thus far. He has been very lucky to start this season, but it is too soon to claim that he cannot sustain any success. Melton struck out 16 batters and walked just two in 11 2/3 IP during his rehab in the minors this season.

This start to the season could just be getting his bearings together after significant time away from MLB hitters. There is a lot to like about Melton, especially after his MLB stint last season, where he flashed as a starter, but was primarily a long-man.

Melton’s fastball velocity is a full MPH below his 2025 mark (97.1), and it could return in upcoming starts. Roster him for his two starts against the Rays and Twins.

FACT (if he stays healthy)