Rolling In The Deep: The 500/300 Club

Good day, friends, and what’s the 500/300 Club, you ask? Well, it’s a club I just made up, as we hit mid-March and draft season is busier than ever. In these final weeks of the pre-season, we’ll continue to take a look at recent ADP and see if we can keep finding ways to use it as a useful tool, while we avoid the temptation to rely on it or use it as a crutch. We’ll focus on the later stages of a draft since that’s where we’re likely to find players that we deep-leaguers might want to be aware of, even as they are being completely ignored by the fantasy baseball community as a whole.

So, back to our lede: this week, we’ll take a look at a handful of guys whose ADP is outside the top 500 according to NFBC data, using all drafts there since March 1st. Where does the 300 come in? None of these players has been drafted higher than pick 300 overall during that time. As we know, ADP can be extremely deceptive, especially as you get later and later in a draft. There are a lot of players whose ADP is outside the top 500, but didn’t have a shot at this list because they’ve been picked higher than 300. Just a few examples: Mike Yastrzemski, Harry Ford, Victor Caratini (those NFBC kids love their catchers!), Nolan Gorman, Kody Clemens, and Victor Robles (who’s gone as high as the 254th pick, for instance). Then you have Javy Baez and Denzel Clarke, both of whose ADP is hovering near 600, but both of whom have been picked inside the top 300 at least once since March 1st. So, while we can’t guarantee all of the following members of the 500/300 club will stay in it throughout draft season, we do know none have recently been drafted in the top 300. Here we go:

Isaac Collins (ADP 501, high pick 305). I’ve already talked about Collins more than once this winter, and I’ll probably continue to draft him anywhere near that ADP if he falls to me as we wait to see how playing time in Kansas City shakes out. Things I like about Collins are A) he’s a switch hitter, B) the Royals targeted him early in the off-season when they got him from the Rockies, so that makes it seem like they’re into him, and C) with semi-regular playing time he could be a decent source of steals, plus he has a bit of sneaky pop as well. One thing I don’t like is that he’s probably due for some batting average regression after hitting a pretty-good-by-today’s-standards .263 last year, and another is the murkiness of the playing time/lineup position picture. Speaking of which, let’s get to our second blurb.

Lane Thomas (ADP 587, high pick 309). I should probably be paying a little more attention to Thomas this late in drafts, given how relatively recently he was a solid fantasy contributor. All I can remember, though, is how fast and how completely he hit the skids, helping take down a fantasy team or two of mine along with him. I don’t really know if the Royals see him as a short-side platoon player or if he has a shot at everyday playing time, but anything close to the latter could make him a value this late if his health cooperates. These first two guys are deep-league outfielders to keep an eye on over the final couple weeks of spring, methinks.

Nolan Arenado (ADP 506, high pick 308). It surprises me a little that Arenado hasn’t gotten a bigger boost after arriving in Arizona, which seems like a pretty solid landing spot for him. That being said, I feel like I’ve had him sitting in my draft queue multiple times this year, yet I just haven’t been motivated to add him to a single one of my teams yet. Given how quickly the 3B market thins out this year, though, it might be time to stop thinking about how far the ceiling has crashed down here over the last several years and to start taking a look at the floor. If Arenado can find a way to stay relatively healthy in 2026, he could end up being a really solid value this late as a deep league corner guy.

Gavin Sheets (ADP 551, high pick 313). Most depth charts are assuming Sheets will be on the strong side of a platoon at first base for the Padres this year, which really isn’t such a bad place to be at this price. If he can do something close to what he did last year, he’d be a very similar player to Arenado as a deep league corner man who should provide 15-20 homers without hurting your average. I’m starting to think the potential OF/1B dual eligibility gives him a bigger value boost than I initially accounted for, and Sheets could prove to be a very valuable roster piece in daily change leagues.

Andrew Benintendi (ADP 570, high pick 329). I feel like I haven’t drafted Benintendi in about a decade, but maybe I should stop sleeping on him as I’m filling out my deep league outfield spots. Did y’all realize that Benintendi hit 20 homers last year, because that number starts to look pretty good after a certain point in a deep league draft. Also, I don’t hate the White Sox projected lineup as much as I thought I would at this point. The projection models seem to think that homer number will go down a bit this year, but as always — with Benintendi, and seemingly with every Major League Baseball player in general these days — health will likely be one of the bigger determining factors here.

Joey Ortiz (ADP 574, high pick 322). Ortiz feels like a forgotten man in Milwaukee, as the Brewers have added Luis Rengifo, David Hamilton, and Jett Williams to the infield mix. Williams hasn’t been at full health this spring and is already back in minor league camp, so there doesn’t seem to be a rush on his timetable. Ortiz is one of those guys whose output often surpasses his raw skills, and while he’s not an exciting pick, it might be wise to keep an eye on him. Fangraphs projects him for 630 plate appearances with 12 homers and 15 steals, and a not horrible .248 average. Those numbers may or may not end up being overly optimistic, but they have me intrigued this late.

Trevor Larnach (ADP 586, high pick 349). Larnach is about as boring a pick as can be, but at least the price is right. I don’t suspect we’ll see him in the lineup against lefties much, if at all, but we don’t really need to in order for him to be of some value, especially for those daily lineup change folks. He’s projected to hit cleanup when he’s in the lineup, so if he and the Twins hitters surrounding him stay healthy (yes, that’s a particularly big if in this case) and newbies like Luke Keaschall are as productive as folks are hoping he’ll be, Larnach could provide a steady stream of helpful counting stats.

That’s it for this week; as always, thanks for reading and happy drafting!