5 Pitchers Due For Positive Regression

This will be the final installment of regression pieces. Thus far, we have had 5 Pitchers Due For Negative Regression,
5 Hitters Due For Positive Regression, and 5 Hitters Due For Negative Regression. Now, we have 5 Pitchers Due For Positive Regression!

Positive regression for pitchers is not always the easiest to predict. There are several–like Robbie Ray before his eventual breakout–who underperformed for years. We chased the highs of his peripherals, while accumulating the lows of his actual ERA yearly. This is a game of chicken at the end of the day, and those who can hold on longest to the actually talented, but typically unlucky starters wins.

Ideally, regression can come after a healthy offseason, or with a team doing its best to fix a horrendous outfield or infield defense. Pitching is a team sport, and it requires the pitcher, his defense, and the baseball (staying in play) to all play along.

SP Jesus Luzardo PHI

The Phillies reaped plenty of value from Jesus Luzardo in 2025. Although his 3.92 ERA was not his lowest ever, Luzardo posted several career-highs with 183.2 IP, 216 K, and 18 quality starts. His first season away from Miami since 2021 was a massive success. Unfortunately, it could have been even better if not for some bad luck. Luzardo gave up 20 runs between May 31 and June 5. This was 25 percent of the runs he allowed in 2025, all within a week.

Luzardo’s 3.92 ERA was backed by a 3.25 xFIP, 3.40 SIERA, and career-best 3.33 xERA. Luzardo’s peripherals were all among the top-10 qualified starters in baseball, but his ERA was closer to league average. 19 of Luzardo’s 32 starts were completed with two or fewer runs allowed, while seven starts were left scoreless!

Nevertheless, Luzardo enters the 2026 season at full strength and ready to contribute as the Phillies’ SP2 behind Cristopher Sanchez. If Zach Wheeler can bounce back from TOS surgery and Aaron Nola regains “even year Nola” form, this rotation is one of the three or four most formidable in baseball.

SP George Kirby SEA

The Mariners almost lost George Kirby for the year in 2025 after a shoulder injury plagued his start to the season. Kirby missed the first two months of regular-season action. Fortunately, he returned on May 22 and was a staple in their elite rotation from then on.

Despite returning without any setbacks, Kirby posted his first season-long ERA above 4.00 (4.21). There was likely residual rust involved that impacted his performance. Kirby posted a 6.16 ERA through his first six starts in 2025, then a 3.59 ERA through the last 17 starts. Oddly, Kirby had some of the best peripherals of his career in 2025. His xFIP (3.25) was his best yet, while his SIERA was second-best to 2022. xERA (3.88) was not as kind to Kirby, but mirrors his 2023 season.

This resulted from Kirby slightly changing his approach. His walk rate (5.5%) jumped to the highest of his career, while his strikeout rate (26.1) was also a career-high. Kirby adjusted his pitch mix in 2025, adding more secondaries and posting the lowest fastball rate of his career. His fastball velocity was normal, but this new mix allowed him to get more chases outside the zone and led to more strikeouts and walks.

As far as we know, Kirby enters 2026 at full strength and should rebound to one of the league’s steadier high-end starters.

RP Devin Williams NYM

Yankees fans hate him, but Mets fans will love him. Devin Williams struggled in one of the worst places, with the worst possible role to botch. Yankees fans were spoiled with elite closers like Mariano Rivera and Aroldis Chapman for most of the past three decades. The job is one of the nearest and dearest to their hearts. Someone like Clay Holmes was a two-time all-star as their closer, yet fans were ready to run him out of town for a perfectly fine 3.14 ERA!

Devin Williams’ 4.79 ERA might as well have been a gunshot to Goose Gossage’s heart. He earned just 18 saves all year and was eventually replaced by Luke Weaver (who we all expected to close after 2024’s postseason run). Williams eventually won the job back after Weaver’s midseason injury, but struggled again to keep innings clean. The Yankees made a point to have a set closer to end the season. This resulted in trades for David Bednar and Camilo Doval.

Regardless, Williams’ issues in 2025 were largely luck-related. His 4.79 ERA was far from his 3.05 xERA, 2.95 xFIP, and 2.67 SIERA. However, he was horrendous to start the season. During his first stint as Yankees closer, Williams posted a 10.03 ERA and 5.59 xFIP through 11.2 IP. He adjusted what was necessary and pitched like a quality reliever after, but even then, it was with a 3.58 ERA. With less pressure on the Mets and a more favorable home park and division for pitching, expect Devin Williams to look like Devin Williams.

SP Sandy Alcantara MIA

2025 was not kind to Sandy Alcantara. This was his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and it went as poorly as possible for the former Cy Young Award winner. Alcantara’s 5.36 ERA was two full runs higher than his career 3.32 ERA entering the season. He posted not only a career-worst ERA, but a career-worst xERA as a starter. His 11.4% K-BB and 1.27 WHIP were the worst since 2019.

Being his first season back from Tommy John, we can give some grace for the former ace. Alcantara’s had an entire offseason since that forgetful year to work on things and prepare for a contract year (albeit with a club option for 2027). More good news is that his 2025 peripherals were a full run lower than his ERA with a 4.19 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA. He was bad, but not 5.00+ ERA bad, regardless of outcome.

I am cautiously optimistic that someone with Alcantara’s track record can get back on track, beyond just regression to a league-average SP. He is only 30 and one of the few workhorses in the MLB. A potential midseason trade is still possible to a destination that unlocks him even further, too.

SP Jack Flaherty DET

The Tigers re-signed Jakc Flaherty last offseason after trading him to the Dodgers during the deadline in 2024. This was a savvy move to acquire assets in a non-contending season and acquire their SP2 for nothing but a contract. That plan sounded better in theory, as Flaherty posted a gaudy 4.64 ERA through 161 IP.

On the other hand, Flaherty’s xERA (3.97), xFIP (3.69), and SIERA (3.67) were all below 4.00. He was not quite his fringe-elite 2024 self as a Tiger, but these are all quality ratios.

Flaherty is no stranger to off years…

2018: 3.34 ERA

2019: 2.75 ERA

2020: 4.91 ERA

2021: 3.22 ERA

2022: 4.25 ERA

2023: 4.99 ERA

2024: 3.17 ERA

2025: 4.64 ERA

There is no guarantee the ever-volatile Flaherty bounces back to the mean of these rates, but with his talent and no drop in velocity, there is reason for optimism. If only he were more predictable like “Even Year Aaron Nola”.

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