Rolling In The Deep: Early Risers

Before we get down to business, it’s almost RCL time! We’re already gearing up for another season of my $100 entry Laura Holt Challenge League, and it looks like we’ll have at least one opening. I know last year a few of you wanted in, but we didn’t have room for everyone, so if you’re seriously interested, drop me a note in the comments! 

Last week, we took a deep dive down into the lower end of the 2026 fantasy first baseman pool, which, to be quite honest, turned out to be a veritable pit of hell. Maybe that’s a bit extreme, but quick recap: you might wanna draft a good first baseman in deeper leagues.

This week, I feel like it’s time for another more general check-in on draft trends. Even though I’m the one who warns everyone week after week not to be too reliant on ADP, as usual, I’m remembering how difficult it is not to at least let those numbers creep into your draft decisions a little bit. I feel I’ve gotten “sniped” more than ever this season (though I’m sure I say that every year), which I have to blame at least in part to bad prep on my part for getting too comfortable with what I thought a player’s market was. Now that teams have broken camp and we’re actually starting to get somewhat more concrete news about injuries and playing time battles, we also have to think about not just how players have been valued up until this point, but how that news may immediately affect values going forward and adjust expectations accordingly. Don’t refuse to draft a guy in round 18 just because he went in round 24 of your last draft if he’s the right player to add to your roster at that point!

Looking at the ADP numbers, if nothing else, does help us realize who our true targets are. We’ll all have a short list of guys we want to try to build a roster around or know we can pencil in at a certain spot, even if it means reaching a round or five for them. I’ve gotten caught waiting on a player I thought I could sneak through later in a draft too many times already this draft season, so it’s time to take a breath, re-group, and check in on the latest upward trends before I go back into the tank to build my next team.

So, here we have a list of players who, based on the last three weeks of NFBC ADP, have had the biggest bumps up the ADP list, particularly when it comes to how that number compares to their overall ranking. So, a guy like Josh Naylor opens this list with “just” a 22.65 ADP increase over that time, since that’s a pretty huge number compared to his current overall ranking of #61.

The real point of this list is to know which players, both near the beginning of a draft and much closer to the end, are likely to have the biggest discrepancies between their overall ADP number and the actual point they’re grabbed in a current draft. If any of these players are on your spring wish list, you may want to bump them up a notch or two on your personal rankings.

Josh Naylor. Well, as I just told you, his ADP rise is over a third of his current ranking, which is a pretty massive increase. We’ve already talked about Naylor this year and how hard it feels to predict where both his power and speed numbers will end up in 2026, but one thing that is clear is that folks are buying into his return to Seattle.

Maikel Garcia. Garcia’s actually had an equally impressive popularity surge, as his ADP is up 27.37 points over the last three weeks and he’s now ranked at #66 overall. Like Naylor, Garcia is a player I had targeted coming into this season. Also like Naylor, I’ve only managed to draft him once so far. He’s actually one of the reasons I thought about writing this post, because it sure seemed like he was going higher in each of my subsequent drafts. Garcia has a wide range of minimum/maximum picks for a player ranked this high overall (49/99), so be prepared for anything if you’re targeting him.

Xavier Edwards. As I look over the numbers, I’m finding it pretty interesting just how few guys have had significant upward value changes when we’re talking about players in the 100-150 overall range. Edwards is up a relatively modest but still noticeable 16.75 points, and his overall ranking stands at #110. I can’t think of a reason for that bump other than maybe that drafters are getting into drafts daydreaming about how plentiful stolen bases are after the latest rule changes… but then realizing mid-draft that they didn’t actually prioritize speed as much as they should have when it comes to roster construction? Personally, I feel Edwards’ price was already a little high for a guy who isn’t going to help even a smidge with power stats. That being said, I’ve already rostered Edwards on one team, turning this blurb into a quick PSA to remind you that the need for speed is real, even in the new era of stolen base rules.

Willson Contreras. Contreras’ ADP is up a hefty 53.93 points, with his overall ranking currently at #172. This is clearly driven in large part by folks reacting positively to his joining the Red Sox. This is a good time to mention that this early in the season, I think there’s also an “all publicity is good publicity” vibe going on. I can’t tell you how often a guy gets taken in one of my slow drafts just after there’s a roto note on him, even if it’s not something that you’d think would necessarily change his value. Anyhow, I wouldn’t be surprised if a little of this rise was also due to folks realizing for themselves what I alluded to earlier in this post: these days, a good first baseman is hard to find.

Munetaka Murakami. (Up 66.04 ADP points, at #203 overall). This one surprised me, since if anything, I thought the lack of MLB teams fighting over Murakami before he ultimately signed with the White Sox was scaring potential fantasy owners off. I guess just having a landing place where he will obviously have a long leash and tons of playing time is comforting to folks. I also thought the scouting reports on Murakami would deter drafters, since his contact issues are being discussed ad nauseam. Personally, he was a fade for me as soon as it was announced he was posted, and I made that decision based on the smallest sample size ever. That would be the four at bats of his I witnessed in person last summer while attending a Yakult Swallows game in Tokyo. I just wasn’t feeling it with him, though I should probably mention I was fairly drunk on highballs for most of the game. (Pro tip: might want to slow down the adult beverage pace when you’re enjoying a baseball game after walking ten or fifteen miles, in like 200% humidity that day, plus it’s around 4 a.m. your time).

Willi Castro. What a difference a little mountain air makes! Castro’s up 104.96 ADP points and now sits at #284 on the overall list after joining the Rockies. I love the multi positional eligibility (2B/3B/OF) for deep or draft and hold type leagues. I don’t love how bad he looked for the last month plus of the season after being traded to the Cubs. I’m not sure the team change warrants this high a jump, but between the rarified air and the Rockies’ obsession with playing mediocrely-skilled veterans over promising youngsters, perhaps it does. Without me having to write another blurb or look up more numbers, also see McCarthy, Jake, and even later down the line Julien, Eduoard, when it comes to this topic.

A couple final notes: I avoided bringing closers into this discussion, since that’s a whole different animal, and usually the reason for the spike is blatantly obvious (e.g. Devin Williams instantaneously rising in value when Edwin Diaz signed with the Dodgers, Seranthony Dominguez signing with the White Sox, etc.) Also, speaking of the Mets, all of Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., and Jorge Polanco have had ADP bumps since signing in New York. Whether or not you feel a change of scenery will lead to a value increase (and it probably does in these cases for what that’s worth), be aware that the “any news is good news” notion I mentioned earlier will likely lead to an ADP bump even in what the industry may perceive as a lateral move (recent case in point: Caleb Durbin). Also, I’m realizing that we’ve only talked about hitters here, so as the news continues to come in, perhaps we’ll take a similar look at starting pitcher movement in a week or two.

As always, thanks for reading, and happy drafting!