Points Leagues Pitcher Rankings – Having Fun With SIERA!

If you know me by now, you know that I like to revisit analytical topics covered in the past to see if the findings carry forward.  I’ve written on pitcher values a number of times, mostly during draft season.  In those cases, I looked at projections for what are considered by many as the most predictive analytical categories for pitcher success.  My original article on this particular topic dates back to February 2023.  I HIGHLY suggest you check this one out HERE.  Trust me, you won’t be disappointed!

For today’s effort, we’ll revisit those three pitching categories and see how they align with the current points leaders.

Before we got to that, a short one-sentence summary to set the mood lighting:

“The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in IP, K-BB% and SIERA rates.”

So, how do I apply this?

• IP (Innings Pitched) is rather simple. The more IP, the higher your rank.  For obvious reasons, I separate out SPs from RPs.
• K-BB% speaks for itself, too. We like high K% and low BB%.  For points leagues, this goes beyond just the scoring for each category, it also plays into categories like ER, ERA/WHIP, etc. if your league scores those too.
• SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), like FIP (Field Independent Pitching), attempts to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher by more accurately modeling what makes a pitcher successful.

When you put all three together, historically we find many of the top fantasy pitchers.  For short, I’ll call this cumulative ranking my “SHU” (Scoville Heat Units) rankings – because I expect some of these findings to be as hot as a Capsaician pepper.

From my earlier work, I note this analysis was done for your traditional Roto leagues, not Points leagues.  For today, we’re going to see how it translates to my “hypothetical” Points league.  Of course, you know the scoring format I use:

Now I give you the top 100 SHU-ranked SPs and their current points rankings.  For kicks, I also included their respective rankings (out of 182) in each of the three categories:  

Overall on the SHU scale, these SP results are Habanero or Red Sabrina HOT!  In fact, I might even give you Bhut Jolokia for the first 35 SPs in the list.  You’ll note the SHU ranks align pretty well with the Points ranks for the first 35 SPs in the list.  With a few exceptions (Chris Bassitt, Dylan Cease and Cole Ragans), there really aren’t any surprises.

From #36 (Nick Lodolo) on, there are plenty in the Serrano (F*ck You, Jobu, I do it myself!) to Cayenne range.  You can really tell who is pitching above their skills and which SPs may be in line for positive corrections.

For instance, Ben Brown’s stat line (5.72 ERA and 1.46 WHIP) corroborates the 123rd Points ranking.  A closer look, though, suggests you may want to take a flyer.  Having top 35 SP rankings in SIERA and K%-BB% means he may net you positive points moving forward.

There are a number of other examples here, such as Logan Henderson (when he returns from AAA), Kyle Freeland (will the Rockies win 10 games?), and Ryan Yarbrough.

On the flip side, SPs like Freddy Peralta (SHU #42), Drew Rasmussen (SHU #48), and Andrew Abbott (SHU #55) are slipping into Chile Verde territory.

Now, here is the same table for the top 50 RPs (of 128):

This one is kinda all over the place.  The top in SHU rank (Jeremiah Estrada) is “only” 31st in points rank.  Similarly, the top Points leader (Andres Munoz) comes in at just #13th in SHU rank.

There may be a few nuggets to mine here, but for the most part, I’m going to categorize these as “sweet bell” peppers and use other analyses for RPs.

In general, the cumulative analysis of IP, K-BB% and SIERA ranks seem to work well for SPs and not so well for RPs.  SPs are a tough nut to crack this season (well, pretty much every season) so I’ll take the wins when I can get them.