Howdy fellow Razzballeroos! It’s me The Great Knoche. I’ve made a shift in alignment here at Razzball and have moved into writing the weekly SAGNOF article regarding finding steals out there on a weekly basis. I’ll probably make a few guest appearances writing DFS as well, so don’t fret you can still hit me up for advice on that also.
With the change of rules in 2023 we saw players stealing bases at the highest rate since 1997. The coolest fact in all of it for me was that not only were players running much more often, the caught stealing rate was historically low. 2023 was the only year on record where teams averaged higher than .72 stolen bases per game with a caught stealing rate as low as .18 per game. Not only did the rule changes allow the speedsters to increase their outputs, but they also allowed guys you wouldn’t think of as base swipers to get into double digits. Like Christian Walker for instance who tallied eleven. In 2022, six players stole 30+ bags and 84 players reached double digit steals, but in 2023 we saw that number go to eighteen players with 30+ bags and 124 who reached double digits. How does that translate into 2024? Let’s discuss…
So some of you newer visitors to Razzball may be asking yourself, Self…What is SAGNOF? Well Self, SAGNOF is an acronym for Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face. You can find this term and many other Razzball sayings here at the glossary page. https://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-terms/
The thought process is that you don’t have to chase stolen bases high and heavy at the start of the year. There are always going to be players who pick up a role where they chip in bags on a regular basis throughout the season. Now I’m not saying pass on Ronald Acuna Jr. if you have the first overall pick, or Corbin Carroll or Bobby Witt in the first round. I’m saying build a balanced team with some steals early and don’t pass on Home Runs, RBIs, and Runs to snag Willi Castro well above his ADP because you think you’re light on steals later on. There are enough guys who can contribute in 2-3 categories and can chip in 10 bags later on in the draft you don’t need Willi.
To start off the season however, I am going to look at some guys to target if for some reason you find yourself in a bind after the early part of the draft.
Let’s say for instance you read Grey’s article on early round draft pairings https://razzball.com/2024-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-pairings/ and find yourself stacked up with Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso in your first two rounds. Then decided for some reason you had to have Kevin Gausman in Round 3 and George Kirby in Round 4 and couldn’t pass on Mike Trout in the 5th. A closer run scared you in the 6th and Jordan Romano landed on the roster and in Round 7 as a lifelong Dodgers fan you grab a top catcher in Will Smith. While this strategy broke many of the unwritten Razzball draft rules, it can and does happen. To recap you’ve gone seven rounds and currently have a decent pitching staff plus a .265 Batting average, 350 Runs, 375 RBIs, 140 Homers, and a paltry 20 stolen bases. What’s a guy or five girl readers to do in this situation? Let’s take a look at some guys starting in Round 8 and later that might be of benefit to balance those categories.
Esteury Ruiz, OF: Oakland Athletics. Pre-February ADP 120; February ADP 124.
Ruiz is the game changer that goes against everything I stated above about finding some balancing guys who can contribute in a few categories. His batting skills were average at best slashing .254/.309/.345 in 497 plate appearances He also only walked 4.0% of the time which doesn’t help raise that steals number. The fact that he plays for Oakland also limits his ceiling on counting stats. All that being said, if you miss on steals getting into Round 8, I am likely seriously considering Ruiz here. He is currently the 30th Outfielder going off the board as has gone as high as 74th this month. If he stays healthy all year and the Athletics continue to just let him run wild who’s to say he couldn’t get close to 100 Stolen Bases?
Anthony Volpe, SS: New York Yankees. Pre-February ADP 136; February 136.
Volpe won the job in Spring Training last year and managed to hold it and get 600 plate appearances in 2023. While his splits also weren’t great at .209/.283/.383 there is some reason for optimism with his K-Rate dropping from his short stint in Triple-A and his almost artificially low BABIP. He will be 23 this year which is typically when a prospect not only grows his man muscles but also when a former Top-Prospect usually takes a big step forward. He was also mired in the bottom third of the Yankees lineup most of the year but did find his way to the top of it 28 times. If he can get that average and OBP up a little bit I don’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t let him lead off more which would do big things for his runs and stolen base totals. I agree with Grey in his Top 20 Shortstops for Fantasy Baseball article https://razzball.com/top-20-shortstops-for-2024-fantasy-baseball/ I’d be shocked if I didn’t own lots of shares of Volpe this year.
Tommy Edman, 2B/SS/OF: St. Louis Cardinals. Pre-February ADP 160; February ADP 173.
Edman continued consistently putting up solid numbers showing up for this third straight campaign of at least 11 Home Runs and 27 Stolen Bases. He missed time in July with a wrist injury and we recently found out he had surgery on it in October which is delaying his 2024 camp start and causing his slight slide in ADP. Personally, I think he is one of the most versatile pieces around when it comes to filling in a fantasy lineup card. If the wrist is healthy he should see plenty of time all around the middle of the field and return another solid campaign. Who knows maybe 15/35 could be in the Cards.
Will Benson, OF: Cincinnati Reds. Pre-February ADP 299; February ADP 307.
This is one of those guys who if actually given playing time instead of being a straight platoon could really put up some numbers. Somehow Sal Frelick with his 10/20 ceiling is being drafted above Benson. His biggest concern besides playing time is his K-Rate which sits above 30% and his BABIP is going to come down. If you need some steals at the end of a draft Benson could be a guy to produce for you. If he gets 400 At-Bats 15/25 from near round 25 is solid production at that point, but you’ll need to take him out of the lineup in daily leagues when they faith a southpaw.
Jose Caballero, SS: Tampa Bay Rays. Pre-February ADP 560; February ADP 477.
Caballero is moving up draft boards after it was announced earlier this week he is expected to win the starting Shortstop job for the Rays. While he could just be a stop-gap until Junior Caminero is ready he is still intriguing for us in the SAGNOF business, especially in deeper leagues. He stole 26 bases for the Mariners in 280 Plate appearances. He has had a solid BB rate at every level of the minors and isn’t completely devoid of power. We know Kevin Cash loves to give players the green light, there isn’t a much better situation for Caballero to land in. I love the super deep league SAGNOF ceiling here. Imagine if he does get and hold the job with 600 plate appearances how does .230/70/10/55/40 sound? I know I’m dreaming, but if he’s gonna get 20-25 Stolen bases in 300 Plate appearances why can’t he steal 40 if he plays every day?
