What’s this? A double duel of EverywhereBlair this weekend? That’s right! While Truss is traveling these great states of the united, I’m stepping in on Sunday to make your DFS days right. Just like yesterday, rosters will probably be a bit funky throughout the slate due to the trade deadline and IL moves. So, if you’re playing an all-day slate, stay need your preferred DFS device to flip lineups as they come in. Otherwise, if you’re kinda lazy like me, pick the smaller slates and be a big fish in those.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
The Slate:
A massive 15-game all-day slate, which is also divided into a 10-game early slate and a 4 game late slate. I’m personally invested in the earlier slates today.
Pitchers:
Charlie Morton ($8800) — I won’t lie; I went investigating yesterday and discovered that my top pitching picks (as algorithm’d by my algorithm) were the same as Fantasy Labs’ top pitching picks. That’s nice company to have! And today I’ve got two pitchers that lead the pack: Morton and Julio Urias. I found some research by 538 that contended there was a relationship between finishing a game “hot” and performance in the next game, whereby the velocity of the fastball at the end of the pitchers’ previous game can usually give a sign to the next games’ performance. This is more a correlation than causation: a pitcher who is getting blown out might have fastball issues or feel fatigued or distressed or whatever. But a pitcher who is pitching well at the end of their previous outing is correlated to have a better performance their next time out compared to pitchers who saw a rapid decrease in their fastball velocity. Now, it’s not an easy fact to check (compared to the multiple sites that offer wOBA/ISO/K-BB%), so, I’m doing that for you right now. That, my friends, is an edge. So, Morton has a 20% K-BB% and faces off against a slightly more potent Brewers offense. Here’s Morton’s final set of fastballs from his previous outing: we see that he finished hot, although his vertical break was “down.” His vertical break was down all day, likely meaning we’re seeing differences from a lack of sticky substances.
Data from Baseball Savant
Julio Urias ($9500): Faces off against Arizona. Do you need another reason? Sure, let’s dig down. Urias has a 21%+ K-BB%, and has a great confidence score on my rankings. However, he’s pricy. Looked fine to end his last game, with his fastball velocity well within normal ranges.
Data courtesy Baseball Savant
Hitters:
Patrick Wisdom ($2900) — My top batters algorithm is filled with the usual names — Matt Olson, Max Muncy, Vladimir Guerrero — and Patrick Wisdom. That’s interesting, right? Wisdom’s slotted into the cleanup spot today against Erick Fedde, who has been crushed recently. Wisdom has wOBA and ISO numbers well above .375 for his splits against righties, and his line drive rate of 19% gives him a nice floor today. Chance of rain for the CHC/WAS game, so keep an eye on that.
Jorge Soler ($3300) — Soler’s been a disappointment this year, but he’s got a change of scenery in Atlanta with a team around him that’s much more potent than the Royals. Soler slots into the 2 spot today against Brett Anderson, and Soler crushes pitchers like Anderson with a .280 ISO against L. Anderson is the second-worst pitcher on my personal list, so I recommend grabbing a few Atlantians and trying out a stack based around Soler today.
Franmil Reyes ($3900), Max Muncy ($3900), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4500), Matt Olson ($4100) — These are all my chalk bats for today. Put these guys at the top of your exposure lists.
Here are the rest of my cheap hitters for the day. These players are classified by being part of teams that are expected to be on low-scoring teams according to Vegas odds (thus having lower ownership percentage than average), yet they also have a line drive rate greater than 20% as well as ISO rates above .200 against their projected handed starters. They’re also projected to bat in the top 5 of the order. Plug these guys into the Razzball DFS Bot Optimizer and make some lineups around them.
As always: I’m writing this article well before roster lock, and it’s going to be a messy roster day today. Please do due diligence by checking rosters before you submit.
Updated 20 mins before lock
I’m Only Happy When it Rains:
30-40% chance of rain for CHC/WAS. 20% chance of rain and some wind for MIL/ATL. High pressure almost everywhere, with lower values on the east coast and west coast.
Image courtesy darksky.net
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Razzball still sees the Royals as not as bad an underdog as Vegas does against the Blue Jays. Jose Berrios gets his first start outside of a Twins uniform and might be a bit distressed today, so maybe toss some YOLO bucks at the +230 line on the Royals (Razzball sees it as +180). Easy money is the ATL/MIL game, where Razzball is even more certain than Vegas that Charlie Morton and Jorge Soler will trounce the Brewers, with a -190 line compared to Vegas’ -160 line.
