So with the month of June in the rearview mirror, balls were once sticky but now clean and clear. Summer brings warmer weather and balls are beginning to leave the yard more. In the month of May, there were 936 home runs hit in MLB. And now, 1019 in June with 336 coming since June 21st, the start of the Sticky Inquisition. That’s an increase of roughly 66 per month. Does the drop in spin rates or rising temps matter more?
Who knows, but July should be the first full month in the heat of summer… so buckle up. This is the Outfield channel and figured, why not express my adulation for the month of Schwarbulation (in the 7th year of our Schwarb) through the art of song. In fact, a totally original song I just wrote for this very occasion:
Kyle’s on a roadtrip far away
Come around and let’s watch together
So many things I want to say
You know, I wish the month was a little bit longer
I just want you to hit a dong tonight
I don’t want to lose my roto points tonight
Yeaaaahhhhhh…
That’s all I got so far. I’m gonna put some more work into it later. Maybe I’ll get Blair to play it for you on the Twitterspace. If that sounds good, let me know in the comments below. Anyway, let’s dive into the outfield space and take a look at how Schwarber and the 99 scrubs have been doing.
Ins
Kyle Schwarber – So welcome (again) to the Kyle Schwarber portion of our program. Schwarber’s June (that really didn’t start until June 12) was something of legend. 16 HRs 30 RBIs (imagine how many he’d have if he wasn’t leadoff? +15? +30?) and a slash line of .280/.362/.760, and… for good measure… 190 wRC+. What does that mean? For the month of June, Schwarber created runs at a rate nearly double the average MLB player. Not replacement level, the MLB average.
For a lefty bat, he missed Bonds’ record month by 1 HR; and for any bat, he was short by 4 to Sosa’s record of 20 HR. Babe Ruth once had 17. Really incredible stuff. The statcast data is also fun: 52.2 Hardhit%, 27.5 Barrel%, and a 93.8 avgEV for June. That barrel rate though *eyes emoji*, was 35.3% when you start with June 12th! The most interesting aspect of his wild ride is that under the surface, his approach wasn’t that different than the rest of his season.
Plate discipline was nearly identical with BB/K also being the same. Prior to June 12th, his Hard hit rate was 50% (56.9% during the run) and his BABIP was only slightly low. So he was making good contact before, the main difference is he started hitting more balls in the air (45.2% to 27.5% GB rate). avgLA went from 12.7 to 18.2 degrees.
The key here is bat pathing. Elevate and celebrate; take notes Juan Soto. The HR/FB% is ridiculous, that should normalize, but the results should put him back in line with his 2019 numbers. So, going forward, I see him as a 35 HR pace hitter if he maintains the momentum of his Elevation tour.
Yordan Alvarez – Another graduate of Outfield Eligibility University. With 10 appearances, he is now qualified in NFBC etc. Adjust your lineups accordingly. Yordong slashed .280/.395/.510 in June with 6 HRs and 24 RBIs. That comes with a 57% Hard hit rate and 18.1% barrel rate. He just needs to elevate a little bit more and that 6 HRs/mo can become 10. Have you seen what Schwarber has been doing?
Cedric Mullins – The walk rate has held, the BABIP has held. And since I said the HR/FB might drop soon… he’s hit 5 more HRs. 4 of them on back-to-back days on the day after my last update, LOL. Does he read Razzball? Is he mad at me? I mean he’s no Kyle Schwarber. That’s 5 HRs in about 13 Schwarbs, or is it 12? Still trying to calibrate my Schwarbatron.
Bryan Reynolds – I loved this man in 2019, You can read about it here. I loved him again last year, but the season got the best of him (and many others). He was due for a rebound, and rebound he has. His BB% and K% have adjusted to the sexy marks they were in AAA. His AVG is back to where it was during his rookie campaign. He has hit .300 at every level and his plate discipline is really solid. He was certain to find it again and now he’s found more power too. A 19.4% HR/FB rate is certainly sustainable as well.
| Age | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019* | 24 | 12.3% | 19.3% | 0.367 | 0.394 | 0.367 | 0.446 | 0.735 |
| 2019 | 24 | 8.4% | 22.2% | 0.189 | 0.387 | 0.314 | 0.377 | 0.503 |
| 2020 | 25 | 10.1% | 27.4% | 0.168 | 0.231 | 0.189 | 0.275 | 0.357 |
| 2021 | 26 | 12.0% | 19.9% | 0.225 | 0.369 | 0.316 | 0.405 | 0.542 |
Ryan Mountcastle – The Count of Mountcastle has returned! And he seeks vengeance. He was in a really low place to start the year. In the month of June (Schwarbulation) he slashed .327/.382/.634 with 9 HRs and 26 RBIs and lowered his K-rate to 23.7%. What happened? He stopped popping up (infield flies 13.6 to 4.2%) and started pulling the ball more (37 to 48%) and thusly his HR/FB went from 10.4 to 29%. With his newfound wealth, he will crush all fastballs who cross him and drive away in his Mercedes.
Outs
Starling Marte – I’ve lowered expectations for all Martes. I’m not opposed to shopping for necessities at low prices, but I am doubting the ROI on Starling Marte given the data so far. His 19 K% is pacing for a 5-year high that was trending down to a career-low prior to this season. His weak contact is easily the highest he’s had at 11.4%, more than double recent years, and an avgEV in the bottom 2% of the league.
The good news is his BB% is on pace for career-high and he’s getting on base. But with an avgLA approaching closer to zero, stealing some bases is about all we can expect without some changes. Something to track as he’s only played in 44 games so far.
Mike Trout – Transferred to 60-day IL and won’t be back until after the ASB (July 17th) instead of before. Clownfish with a sad clown face.
Mark Canha – IL with Hip strain. Results show it was tendonitis (good news) and is receiving treatment, though might not be completely ready when eligible on July 6th.
Justin Upton – Been on IL since 25th with lower back strain and spasms. Ugh, I feel your pain bro. Literally. I can attest that this is no laughing matter (metaphorically) as this really sucks. No way you can swing a bat while dealing with this. The good news is he might be activated on Saturday barring setbacks, but you should never hastily turn your back on PT for the other PT.
What-have-yous
Christian Yelich – Where to begin? The good: walk-rate is at a career-high pace of 20.4% with a low 16.2% chase rate, BB% is top 1% in the league. Wow. The only person higher than him is Grandal. That actually might not be a good thing. He also has a 53.5% hard-hit rate with a 114.5 mph maxEV, both in the top 5%. The bad: his barrel rate is the lowest it’s been in 5 years, avgEV is down to 90.8 mph with his avgLA a paltry 1.7%!
What is he, chicken? Too afraid to swing? Come on big fella, use that wood. That is so crazy low, it’s almost as if he’s trying to hit it on the ground. What is that hitting coach teaching them? In 2019, his avgLA was 11.3 degrees. Like literally all he needs to do is swing for the fences and I feel like that will correct most of his problems.
Akil Baddoo – I’d break it down, but why redo the work when someone else already did it well? Son did a great job of that here. The home runs haven’t come back yet but he’s rebounded nicely in the month of June hitting .348 with a K-rate of only 17.1%… will he hit anymore home runs? Eh, hard to say. The hard-hit rate isn’t very high but some of his big hits would have been home runs in other parks… soooo maybe? He’s still stealing which is good. There’s likely at least one more league adjustment this season since it’s just now July. But, I like what I see.
Eddie Rosario – So there’s been a few questions about him so far. “Why is he (still) so high?” being chief among them. I get it the power isn’t there right now but he’s been pretty solid so far in the other areas. So far this season he has 45 RBIs to go with his 6 HRs and 9 SB. That’s why. He’s got a track record of consistent power and it should come eventually barring injury (like the one that just happened, fml).
His K rate is only 15.5% and if he starts to pull the ball more like we know he can (above 40% in 2018 and 2019) then the big flys should return with a tad more on his launch angle. Hopefully good news on his condition before the game Friday.
Daz Cameron – Cameron has 3 HRs and 3 SB since the call-up. But also comes with a .220 AVG. That is somewhat suppressed by a .250 BABIP. It’s a small sample but he’s making good contact so far, so why not ride the hot hand providing bombs and bags while you can.
Harrison Bader – Came off the DL yesterday, and if the vision correction holds true, then he could pick up where he left off before injury with the 4 game series in COL that started Thursday.
The ROS Board
| # | Name | Team | Pos | CW$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | ATL | OF | 61.3 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | CIN | OF | 35.3 |
| 3 | Whit Merrifield | KC | 2B/OF | 33.0 |
| 4 | Juan Soto | WSH | OF | 29.8 |
| 5 | Mookie Betts | LAD | OF | 29.3 |
| 6 | J.D. Martinez | BOS | OF | 27.5 |
| 7 | Jesse Winker | CIN | OF | 26.6 |
| 8 | Aaron Judge | NYY | OF | 23.4 |
| 9 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | OF | 22.7 |
| 10 | Bryce Harper | PHI | OF | 21.3 |
| 11 | Randy Arozarena | TB | OF | 21.1 |
| 12 | Kyle Tucker | HOU | OF | 21.0 |
| 13 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B/OF | 20.5 |
| 14 | Mike Trout | LAA | OF | 19.9 |
| 15 | Kyle Schwarber | WSH | OF | 19.5 |
| 16 | Raimel Tapia | COL | OF | 18.0 |
| 17 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | OF | 17.7 |
| 18 | Cedric Mullins | BAL | OF | 17.7 |
| 19 | Kris Bryant | CHC | 1B/3B/OF | 16.9 |
| 20 | Mitch Haniger | SEA | OF | 16.6 |
| 21 | Christian Yelich | MIL | OF | 16.2 |
| 22 | Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | OF | 16.2 |
| 23 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 1B/OF | 16.1 |
| 24 | Austin Meadows | TB | OF | 16.0 |
| 25 | Trent Grisham | SD | OF | 15.9 |
| 26 | Tommy Pham | SD | OF | 15.7 |
| 27 | Adolis Garcia | TEX | OF | 15.2 |
| 28 | Joey Gallo | TEX | OF | 14.9 |
| 29 | Eddie Rosario | CLE | OF | 14.5 |
| 30 | Alex Verdugo | BOS | OF | 13.5 |
| 31 | Starling Marte | MIA | OF | 13.4 |
| 32 | Ramon Laureano | OAK | OF | 11.7 |
| 33 | Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | OF | 11.3 |
| 34 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 2B/SS/OF | 11.0 |
| 35 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B/OF | 10.4 |
| 36 | Byron Buxton | MIN | OF | 10.3 |
| 37 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B/OF | 10.0 |
| 38 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B/OF | 9.2 |
| 39 | Andrew McCutchen | PHI | OF | 9.0 |
| 40 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B/SS/ 3B/OF | 8.3 |
| 41 | Michael Brantley | HOU | OF | 7.8 |
| 42 | Charlie Blackmon | COL | OF | 6.5 |
| 43 | Mark Canha | OAK | 1B/OF | 6.2 |
| 44 | Hunter Renfroe | BOS | OF | 5.9 |
| 45 | Tyler O’Neill | STL | OF | 5.9 |
| 46 | Franmil Reyes | CLE | OF | 5.2 |
| 47 | Adam Frazier | PIT | 2B/OF | 5.1 |
| 48 | Brandon Lowe | TB | 1B/2B/ OF | 5.0 |
| 49 | Adam Duvall | MIA | OF | 4.5 |
| 50 | Randal Grichuk | TOR | OF | 3.7 |
| 51 | Justin Upton | LAA | OF | 2.7 |
| 52 | Wil Myers | SD | 1B/OF | 2.4 |
| 53 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | TOR | 2B/OF | 1.9 |
| 54 | Avisail Garcia | MIL | OF | 1.9 |
| 55 | Andrew Benintendi | KC | OF | 1.7 |
| 56 | Dylan Carlson | STL | OF | 1.2 |
| 57 | Manuel Margot | TB | OF | 0.3 |
| 58 | Nick Solak | TEX | 2B/3B/ OF | 0.0 |
| 59 | Max Kepler | MIN | OF | -0.7 |
| 60 | Mike Yastrzemski | SF | OF | -0.9 |
| 61 | Amed Rosario | CLE | SS/OF | -0.9 |
| 62 | Joc Pederson | CHC | 1B/OF | -1.0 |
| 63 | Robbie Grossman | DET | OF | -1.4 |
| 64 | Ketel Marte | ARI | 2B/SS/OF | -1.5 |
| 65 | Garrett Hampson | COL | 2B/SS/ OF | -2.7 |
| 66 | Myles Straw | HOU | SS/OF | -2.9 |
| 67 | Tyler Naquin | CIN | OF | -3.2 |
| 68 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B/SS/ 3B/OF | -3.8 |
| 69 | Akil Baddoo | DET | OF | -4.1 |
| 70 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B/OF | -4.7 |
| 71 | Josh Rojas | ARI | 2B/SS/ OF | -5.2 |
| 72 | AJ Pollock | LAD | OF | -5.3 |
| 73 | Jeff McNeil | NYM | 2B/3B/ OF | -5.4 |
| 74 | George Springer | TOR | OF | -5.4 |
| 75 | Dominic Smith | NYM | 1B/OF | -6.2 |
| 76 | Michael Conforto | NYM | OF | -6.3 |
| 77 | David Peralta | ARI | OF | -7.0 |
| 78 | Dylan Moore | SEA | 2B/SS/ 3B/OF | -7.3 |
| 79 | Ian Happ | CHC | 2B/3B/ OF | -8.9 |
| 80 | Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B/OF | -9.2 |
| 81 | Victor Robles | WSH | OF | -9.4 |
| 82 | Anthony Santander | BAL | OF | -9.4 |
| 83 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 2B/3B/ OF | -9.8 |
| 84 | Austin Hays | BAL | OF | -9.9 |
| 85 | Gregory Polanco | PIT | OF | -10.2 |
| 86 | Enrique Hernandez | BOS | 2B/SS/ OF | -10.9 |
| 87 | Luis Robert | CHW | OF | -11.2 |
| 88 | Odubel Herrera | PHI | 2B/OF | -11.2 |
| 89 | Steven Duggar | SF | OF | -12.0 |
| 90 | Pavin Smith | ARI | 1B/OF | -12.8 |
| 91 | Jurickson Profar | SD | 2B/OF | -12.9 |
| 92 | Jorge Soler | KC | OF | -12.9 |
| 93 | Yonathan Daza | COL | OF | -12.9 |
| 94 | Josh Naylor | CLE | 1B/OF | -13.0 |
| 95 | Chas McCormick | HOU | OF | -13.7 |
| 96 | Luis Arraez | MIN | 2B/3B/ OF | -13.9 |
| 97 | Jon Berti | MIA | 2B/SS/ 3B/OF | -14.0 |
| 98 | Harold Ramirez | CLE | OF | -14.4 |
| 99 | Alex Dickerson | SF | OF | -14.4 |
| 100 | Michael A. Taylor | KC | OF | -14.6 |
| 101 | Willians Astudillo | MIN | C/1B/ 3B/OF | -14.8 |
| 102 | Josh Harrison | WSH | 2B/3B/ OF | -15.5 |
| 103 | Adam Eaton | CHW | OF | -15.7 |
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
