While Sonny Gray has had an awful season thus far, he was much better in the month of June and is coming off of three straight strong starts. There’s certainly some risk in starting him at home, but Gray is facing one of the weakest lineups in baseball in the Orioles, who have just a .300 wOBA versus righties. Their 24.3% K-rate means that Gray has lots of strikeout upside, and he should have plenty of run support against Alex Cobb.
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Luke Weaver, SP: Is this stupid? Maybe, but are we really that afraid of the Rockies on the road? Weaver was strong in his last time out against the Cubs and has some strikeout potential against a lineup that strikes out 24% of the time away from Coors.
Manny Machado, IF: I expect Manny and the Dodgers lineup to stomp on Chase Anderson, who is somehow still going with a 5.00 FIP and a 19.3% K-rate. Those numbers aren’t going to hold for long, and Machado has even more RBI and run opportunities with Brian Dozier added to the lineup.
Edwin Encarnacion, IF: Stream-o-nator loves Edwin and the Indians bats against Adalberto Mejia, and I still think there’s room to buy low on Edwin. He’s still one of the best power upside plays on any given night and already has 76 ribbies.
Whit Merrifield, IF: Merrifield is just about all the Royals have left, but I’ll still pounce on him leading off against Dylan Covey. Merrifield can will maximize his plate appearances from the top of the lineup, where he can score runs and steal bags.
Starling Marte, OF: Marte has had an insane last 30 days, where he’s hit seven homers with seven steals and a 1.018 OPS. Those are monster fantasy numbers, so I’m willing to roll with him against a lefty.
Eddie Rosario, OF: Even on days with a tougher matchup, Rosario is pretty much a lock for production. He’s got a 143 wRC+ this year off of right-handed pitching.
Ronald Acuna, OF: Acuna’s value has spiked now that he’s leading off for the Braves – he’s flourished there, with an 1.140 OPS, four homers, and three steals in the last 15 days. He should feast on Marlins starter Pablo Lopez.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are two games to look out for tonight: Baltimore-New York, which has a 32% chance of thunderstorm at game time, and Marlins-Braves, with a 52% chance for thunderstorms.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’ll take the hot-hitting Pirates at +115 against Cole Hamels and hope for a bounceback from Nick Kingham.
