Why can’t any of these elbows stay healthy? Why is Dr. Nick still the head of the Mets medical staff?!? I kid, I kid Mets fans! Or do I? Seriously, I’m not 100% joking, you know it, I know it, Fred Wilpon’s tailor knows it. The Mets have done an unbelievable job of messing up a good thing. They are not only in one of the biggest media markets on earth, they have a passionate, and loyal fanbase. Yet, due to mismanagement on a gargantuan scale, they’ve come to be known as the cash strapped neighbors of the Yankees. The Mets have screwed up a golden generation of pitchers, to the point that their players’ elbows are a punchline. It’s not just their major league rotation either, there’s at least three players below with elbow injuries. Perhaps some of it’s bad luck, maybe there’s a curse, or it’s just a thing called Mets. Dude, they’re still paying Bobby Bonilla!!! Mets fans are good people, I know a few. This is for you, because with the yawn inspiring nature of this system, I needed something to keep me going. Anyway, this is one of the weaker systems in the game, it’s the New York Mets Top Prospects for 2018 Fantasy Baseball.

 

1) Peter Alonso, 1B | Age: 23 | Level: AA | 2017 Stats: .289/.359/.524, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB

One of these days I’ll fall in-line and quit these righthanded hitting first basemen, but today is not that day. Alonso is number one in the Mets system, not because he’s an all world talent, but because he’s the only bat in the system above A ball with a true carrying offensive tool. That carrying tool just so happens to be plus plus raw power that manifests itself in hard contact and impressive exit velocities. He led the Florida State League in homers at the time of his promotion to AA, despite missing the first month plus with a hand injury. He should see assignment to AA Binghamton out of camp, but should touch AAA, with an outside chance he sees some time in Flushing this summer. All fields power, approach, and an above average hit tool, lead me to believe Alonso is a future fantasy relevant corner bat. ETA: 2019

2) Mark Vientos, SS | Age: 18 | Level: Rk | 2017 Stats: .262/.318/.398, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB

One of the youngest players in the 2017 draft, Vientos pairs hitting ability, projectable power, and baseball IQ, with the defensive chops to stick on the leftside of the infield. His quick, lofty swing is easy to fall in love with, and the strength of his hands is evident upon first glance. He flashed more power in the GCL than he had previously shown in the prep ranks, and there’s reason to believe his power could continue to grow into the mid-20’s variety. The size of his frame (6’4 190), paired with his lack of footspeed should lead to a move to third. Has the bat and upside to develop into a top 50 prospect. Good stash in dynasty if you can wait 3+ years. ETA: 2021

3) Andres Gimenez, SS | Age: 19 | Level: A | 2017 Stats: .265/.346/.349, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 14 SB

Let’s get this out of the way right up front. Gimenez can hit, his bat is incredibly advanced for his age, and his numbers were more than respectable for an 18 year old in full season ball. That said, the Venezuelan teenager looks very much to me like the dreaded empty hit tool type. There is some power there, but not much, more of the gap variety. His speed is middle of the road, at best, and it barely plays in A ball right now, and he’s a teenager. This is one of those times where real life deviates from fantasy, as the intangibles, and defensive skills in the middle infield don’t do a thing to move the needle in this context. An encouraging set of skills leads me to believe there’s some upside beyond what he’s shown, but the bat will have to max out to get there. He looks like a future big leaguer, just not one you’ll care much about for fantasy. ETA: 2021

4) David Peterson, LHP | Age: 22 | Level: A- | 2017 Stats: 0-0, 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6 K, 1 Bb

The Mets first rounder in the most recent draft, Peterson is a big bodied lefty, with three average or better pitches, and above average control. He ranked 36th in my 2017 First Year Player Draft rankings, and here’s what I said there. “He’s not hurt yet! That’s the best news I can give any Mets fan about a pitcher, or person with body parts, affiliated with their team. The Oregon ace went to the Mets in the first round, he brings to the table a polished, close to the majors, mid-rotation profile. His four pitch arsenal is comprised of a low 90’s fastball, a nasty slider that haunts lefties over and over again, a changeup that flashes plus, and a fringe curveball. His command is plus and his control is tremendous. Should limit walks, and miss enough bats to be a fantasy relevant starter in 12 team leagues at peak, if he reaches his ceiling. Well, at least before his first TJ.” ETA: 2019

5) Ronny Mauricio, SS | Age: 16 | Level: N/A | 2017 Stats: Did Not Play

This is kind of where we’re at with the Mets system, I’m ranking a 16 year old shortstop in the top five. Weak system or not, Mauricio is pretty special. To say he has the highest upside of any player in the system is an understatement. A switch-hitting power bat at the shortstop position, with the body and frame to grow into plus game pop. There’s a strong chance he moves over to third as his body fills out, which is really not much different than Mark Vientos. He’s a far off, draft and stash in deeper dynasties, but a worthy investment at the right price. ETA: 2022

6) Desmond Lindsay, OF | Age: 21 | Level: A | 2017 Stats: .220/.327/.388, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB

A tooled up outfielder that can’t stay on the field, Lindsay flashes his potential in spurts of health. He’s had an abundance of injuries dating back to high school. Long running hamstring problems, vision problems, and an elbow injury that ended his 2017. Baseball America’s prospect handbook mentions a corrected contact lens prescription that led to a late surge pre-elbow surgery. Over that final 27 games Lindsay slashed .300/.352/.560 connecting for 6 of his 8 homers. I like Lindsay on paper; a lightning quick bat, easy all fields power, and athleticism, but his murky injury history makes him a tough buy. ETA: 2021

7) Justin Dunn, RHP | Age: 22 | Level: A+ | 2017 Stats: 5-6, 95 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 75 Ks, 48 Bb

A college reliever turned starter, that went on a fairy tale run his final season at Boston College. Selected 19th overall by the Mets in the 2016 draft, Dunn’s first full season of pro ball was rough to say the least. It takes no more than a gander at the above statline to realize that. Lefties destroyed Dunn, as they feasted on him for a .926 OPS, and figuring out his split issues is paramount to any big league future. He has fluid mechanics, and delivers the ball from a three quarters arm slot, with smooth athletic movements. His fastball sits 92-96 with some late sink, he pairs that with a hard breaking slider that runs away from righties and in on lefties. Right now Dunn’s changeup is fringe, and the development of that pitch is the key to his future in the rotation, and quite possibly an answer to his problem versus lefthanded batters. Floor is a nice pen arm, but the ceiling is a number three starter. ETA: 2020

8) Thomas Szapucki, LHP | Age: 21 | Level: A | 2017 Stats: 1-2, 29 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 27 Ks, 10 Bb

Pour out a little liquor for the career of Szapucki. He’s dealt with shoulder, back, and now an elbow injury that required TJ. When Szapucki is on he’s as nasty as they come, mixing a plus fastball with a hard breaking slider, an average curveball, and a fringe changeup. Looks like we won’t see the lefty until 2019. Safe Travels Puck! ETA: 2020

9) Quinn Brodey, OF | Age: 22 | Level: A | 2017 Stats: .253/.302/.355, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 10 SB

A third rounder out of Stanford, Brody was a two way player before focusing his efforts on the outfield. He brings to the table above average raw power, some base-stealing ability, and across the board average tools. Not the most exciting player, but he offers some multi-category fantasy potential if he can max out his bat. ETA: 2020

Other Prospects with all of their body parts: Marcos Molina, Anthony Kay, Adrian Hernandez, Thomas Nido, Chris Flexen, Jordan Humphreys, Tyler Bashlor

Find all of the 30 Minor League Previews, and Offseason Rankings on the Minor League Index
On Twitter as @ProspectJesus

   
  1. Earl says:
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    Can anyone tell me where Zach Davies from Brewers is in Grey’s starter rankings?

    also, any input as to how people see him doing this year would be welcomed.

    Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Earl: Looks like he didn’t make the cut, not a huge shock. Low K guy with a projected mid-4’s ERA. Not a bad backend real life guy, but I doubt he wins 17 again.

  2. Zeke says:
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    In a keeper league – 12 teams – 6×6 – OBP, SLG, R, HR, RBI, SB and IP, QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV+HD

    We can keep 4 players. Below are the players I’m considering, the round I get to keep them in, and for how many years I can keep them for. I feel like these 3 are locks:

    *Carlos Correa – 26th Round – 2018

    *Alex Bregman – 25th Round – 2018 and 2019

    *Cody Bellinger – 24th Round – 2018, 2019, 2020

    Then I could choose one of the following 5 players to keep:

    *Ronald Acuna – 24th Round – 2018, 2019, 2020

    *Rafael Devers – 24th Round – 2018, 2019, 2020

    *Byron Buxton – 15th Round – 2018, 2019, 2020

    *Yoan Moncada – 24th Round – 2018 and 2019

    *Robbie Ray – 15th Round – 2018, 2019, 2020

    Given the circumstances, which 4 players would you keep? Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Zeke: It’s Devers or Acuna for me. Devers might be a little safer for a 600+ PAs in 2018, but Acuna brings the speed element. Plus the round is such a discount from Ray or Buxton.

  3. Randy says:
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    Hey Ralph, just heard you on the In This League Prospect Podcast. I wish you weren’t rushed at the end, it is always great to hear your analysis. I wish more podcast just let the time go, even if it is 2-3 hours. I know you have other things to do in life, but still if the time is there, the discussions are interesting and wish they were not cut off as much…anyway..

    Question: You took Jeisson Rosario, which surprised me because you haven’t mentioned him recently (that I have heard). Do you see him as a possible Florial\Trammel type riser in the next year? He seems to have a similar skill set to Trammel, speed, OBP, developing power..

    Another quick thing, do you think Santander is really underrated? the guy can really hit.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Randy: Yes, Rosario is my “Most Likely to Ball Out Like Acuna w/ His Nuts Out”. Love the guy, but he’s a head case. Big, loud, filthy tools. Big speed and off the charts athleticism. Just needs to mature as a ballplayer. Who knows if that happens, but the skills are there in abundance.

      Yeah, I think he’s a AAAA Guy. A Jesus Aguilar type.

  4. No Courage says:
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    I’m in a dynasty league with a $300 draft budget and differentiated (LF-CF-RF) outfield slots. 25-man rosters, plus 5 NA slots. Right now, I am staring at this on my roster:

    CF Buxton, $1
    CF Acuna, $1
    CF Robles, $8
    CF, LF Brinson, $8

    If I carry all of them back into the draft, that’s 4 slots for 4 CFs with either low floors or playing time concerns. I’m trying to find a trade, but this league is slow pre-draft. Do I contemplate just not carrying over Brinson or Robles? The heart wants them, though.

    Also, I’ve got Addison Russell on year 2 of a 3-year contract at $12. I’ll have to eat that money this year and next year if I don’t carry him over. On the other hand, I own Story and Bregman. Would you just drop him?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @No Courage: Brinson should solve the issue by moving to right, as should Acuna. Wouldn’t even shock me if Robles plays some corner early too. You just don’t know, I wouldn’t downgrade that upside Murderer’s Row.

      I’d drop him if eating the money didn’t handstring me for the ROS.

      • No Courage says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        Thanks! It’s embarrassing how easily I’ll talk myself into bad decisions this time of year. The October 2017 version of me had no problem with this logjam.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @No Courage: Hahaha

  5. Another Dan says:
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    Belated Happy Birthday. Hope you had a good one.

    Last selection in a 30 team minor league FA draft some guys I have interest in are Sensley,, Leftwich, Lugbauer, Arauz, Emanuel Tapia, Pelletier. Can you give me two or names please ? unless you have any better ideas of real deep sleepers who might be available.

    Other leagues looking ok. Perhaps trading Quintana away for Sunday Santana was a mistake …. what could I get in a 12 team dynasty for Sunday now do you think ?

    Mets system seems pretty thin. Can’t think of many worse.

    Football update. My team had 9 wins on the bounce until yesterday. We drew 0-0 away from home at the team in 4th (they were on a 10 game unbeaten run themselves). We’re now 3rd (we have a game in hand on 2nd with about 15 games left) but there are only 2 points between the top 3. It’s going to go to the wire …

    Still catching up on pods after a week on holiday. The Honeywell news sucks, let’s hope he’s fit to pitch in 2019.

    Best wishes,

    Another Dan

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Another Dan: Hmmm, how about Sherten Apostel or Lugbauer.

      Hold on Sunday. It will work itself out.

      Haha, yeah they have a few more pitchers but nothing special.

      Good to hear on the update. I’m pulling for promotion.

      Honeywell thing sucks, made me a little sad. Just to watch him in all his glory. Who knows if that ever comes back.

      • Yr Never Too Old for Balloons says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: isn’t honeywell just getting TJ though or did i misread something?

  6. Gibby says:
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    Hey, Ralph. 18-team deep keeper league where we keep 15 + 4 mnors, keep free forever. Looking for advice on my last couple of keepers:

    1) Jorge Polanco or Jose Peraza…it’s a head-to-head categories league and we use OBP instead of AVG – does that give Polanco the edge? Peraza just felt like an anchor last year if he wasn’t stealing mutiple bags in a week

    2) Two of Ramiel Tapia, David Peralta, Harrison Bader, or Aaron Altherr

    3) Aaron Sanchez or Vince Velasquez

    4) Thoughts on Kyle Lewis and Frances Martes? I’m able to keep both with minor league slots, but Tapia and Bader are also minors eligible, so I could plug them in instead to keep additional guys listed above (e.g. cut Lewis and Martes to keep 3 of the OF and both pitchers).

    Thanks for the help! I took over a terrible team two years ago and your columns have netted me Bellinger, Rosario, Bichette, and Buehler since then.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Gibby: I like Peraza’s upside, but it’s likely Polanco is the better play in this format.

      Tapia and Atherr

      Sanchez

      I’d definitely hold on Martes, it might take a little bit, but I think he gets there. I’d keep Bader then. Lewis just can’t get right, I don’t want him until he’s free at this point.

      Glad I could help, thanks for reading!

      • Gibby says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Good stuff, appreciate it! Do you see Bader contributing much this year, or is he just a better bet long term than Peralta? Seems like a potentially crowded outfield for both of those guys (well, all four of them really).

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Gibby: I think Bader is going to be a lefty platoon bat in the short term. He mashes lefthanded pitching. Better bet than Peralta though. I think Bader will turn into an everyday guy.

  7. Swfcdan says:
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    Hi everybody! Hi Doctor Nick!

    Oh Mets…they don’t even have a good farm to fall back on now, didn’t realise how horribly miserable this is.

    In middle of a deeeeep dynasty draft. 12 teams, 60 man rosters, 20 of which must be prospects. So that means going 240 minors deep minimum (though some older prospects eg De Leon can still count). Using your rankings but they are about to run out! Anywhere else you know of with a top 200 list? Sickels did one last year on minorleagueball but I can’t find anything new yet this year.

    • Another Dan says:
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      @Swfcdan:

      prospects1500.com do a 30 player list for each team with tiers 1-5 in them. You can sort of rank players using those (and personal preferences), I would assume that in a 12 teamer you would want high upside guys rather than low floor (but it does depend on league settings). Also the active roster spots might make a difference – eg if you need 5 OF compared to a 3 OF team.

      Best wishes,

      Another Dan

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Another Dan: Thanks Another Dan, I’ll check it out. Good to see above Scarborough doing so well, so is it conference for you next year?

        • Another Dan says:
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          @Swfcdan:

          No worries.

          we’re miles off conference. 3 promotions needed. It’s a long way back to our former glories (one I’m not sure we’ll ever make given the way football at that level has changed – Salford City are an example). I think we might find a Conf N ceiling but we’ll see – this year has been very exciting. First one back in our own town for 10 years.

          On the baseball note Ralph has some sleepers he likes. Arias, Morales, Luzardo, Graterol that did not feature in his top 100 last time he released it. Think most of those should be owned where 240 prospects are owned. Some might be just about ‘on the bubble’. Has Honeywell been drafted ? Not sure where I would take him though.

          Best wishes,

          Dan

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Another Dan: I back this up they do great work.

  8. ichirosan says:
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    Hi Ralph,

    nice work as always. I’m about to have the minor league draft of one of my dynasty leagues, and these writeups are priceles.

    Just wondering… has your Top 100 changed much from the list you made last October? Any notable risers or fallers?

    • ichirosan says:
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      @ichirosan: And while I’m at it… I have a big hole at SS. I was offered Orlando Arcia for Derek Fisher + Mitch Keller (both in my major league roster, before keepers lock). Yay or nay?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @ichirosan: Nay

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @ichirosan: A little I’m definitely higher on Jession Rosario, Jo Adell, Esteury Ruiz, Nate Pearson, and Akil Baddoo

  9. Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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    adding the peanut butters (GIF’s) was a very good idea.

    16 team keep 6. OPS, QS, hits, holds added 7×7 h2h. yahoo standard so only 3 OF, no CI/MI.
    goldy/arenado/thor for sure but what’s next best 3: a.wood/segura/odor/dr. castellanos/pollock/sunday santana. usually a 2nd pitcher probably wouldn’t be in play, but QS and segura/odor looking worse than they did last year at this time maybe wood.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Stupid Sexy Glanders: I figure you all get something to stare at!

      Segura, Santana, Castellanos

  10. Lincoln Hawk says:
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    Hey Ralph…Would you trade Paul Goldschmidt for Kopech, Gore and Tatis Jr in a keep forever dynasty setup with 15 mlb keepers and 7 prospect keepers? Am I asking for too much or this fairly even?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Lincoln Hawk: Yeah that’s a solid return. I mean you’re trading Goldy you better max out. I’d even say you have too many pitchers.

  11. Manley Ramirez says:
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    Informative article. Love the GIFs.

  12. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    AL only 10 teamer. QS over wins, holds added. OBP over AVG, total bases added. keep 3 at previous season’s ADP prices. most other 1st round type players are kept.
    correa (1)
    snell (12th)
    morton (19th)
    devers (25th)
    k.davis (5th)
    segura (3rd)
    mancini (25th)
    mostsuckass (if he goes to AL, gotta think KC nabs him now to avoid being the bar none worst offense in baseball, 10th)
    kiermaier (9th)
    delmonico (25th)
    if multiple from same round one has to move up one round

    seems mancini/devers are easy yeses, who’s 3rd.

  13. Mihai says:
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    Hello Ralph! Are you going to publish an updated top 100 prospects for 2018. And if so when? Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Mihai: Yes 100%, I’m trying to get through all the systems so I can combine all the work into a monster list. Likely second week of March.

  14. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    i know it’s been a bit since your last top 100 and a bit more till the newer late preseason one, i got my 1st drafts that involve prospects (long term values, i don’t mean “this year value guys” in fact most of the time i DON’T want short term value for these league depths, as i can leave stashed); any off the top of your head list for guys that have moved a lot up or down from your last top 100-200 prospects?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey: Mentioned above Jession Rosario, Jo Adell, Esteury Ruiz, Nate Pearson, and Akil Baddoo

Comments are closed.