Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (15) | 2013 (22) | 2012 (5) | 2011 (4) | 2010 (19)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [83-79] AL East
AAA: [77-66] International League – Buffalo
AA: [66-76] Eastern League – New Hampshire
A+: [77-61] Florida State League – Dunedin
A: [62-77] Midwest League – Lansing
A(ss): [46-30] Northwest League – Vancouver

Graduated Prospects
Marcus Stroman, RHP | Kevin Pilllar, OF | Ryan Goins, 2B

The Gist
Toronto saw the rise of both Marcus Stroman and Dalton Pompey in 2014, and both are going to be factors in 2015 fantasy leagues. In addition to Stroman, the Jays have two stud pitching prospects on the farm in Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez. Both have already seen time in the major leagues and should be on the radar for 2015 as well. This was a fun system to write up, since it has intriguing fantasy prospects from top to bottom. The major league club got a big boost when it acquired Josh Donaldson from the Athletics for three prospects, including shortstop Franklin Barreto. Barreto would have been an easy top five in this system, but Donaldson should be a fantasy beast in that lineup at the Rogers Centre.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects

1. Dalton Pompey, OF | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
500 84 140 22 9 9 51 10.4% 16.8% 43 7 .317 .392 .469

Pompey gets the #1 spot thanks to his proximity and ability to contribute in multiple fantasy categories. The 22-year-old rocketed through three levels of the minors in 2014 before getting a cup of coffee with the big club in September. Now, it looks like Pompey will get a real shot at the starting center field job in Toronto for 2015. He’s got enough pop to hit double-digit homers, but his best tool is his speed which could translate into 25-30 steals at the major league level. Slot that into a solid Blue Jay lineup in a home park that favors hitters and you’ve got the formula for a top fantasy prospect that’s relevant even in redraft formats.

2. Daniel Norris, LHP | Age: 21 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
12 2 2.53 26 25 0 124.1 96 37 35 7 3.1 11.8 .212

Like Pompey, Norris is going to get his chance soon and could even slot into the fifth rotation spot to start the year. On traditional lists Sanchez seems to get the nod, but Norris is a better bet to remain a starter so he gets the edge in this fantasy top ten. Rogers Centre isn’t exactly a pitcher’s paradise, but we had the same fears with Stroman and he did just fine in his rookie campaign. All four of Norris’s pitches grade as average or better. He put up a 38/8 K/BB ratio in 22.1 Triple-A innings in 2014 before pitching a few MLB relief innings in September. Norris is a nice late-round flier in 2015 fantasy drafts.

3. Aaron Sanchez, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
3 7 3.95 22 29 0 100.1 88 54 44 6 5.1 7.5 .243

Sanchez is similar to Norris in that he is close to the majors and should see ample MLB time in 2015. There’s a little more bullpen risk than Norris though and current depth charts have Sanchez slated to start the year in a setup role out of the bullpen. The 22-year-old righty is going to carry fantasy value either way, since he has the stuff to be a good closer or a #2/#3 starter if he reaches his full potential. In 33 MLB innings last season, Sanchez posted a 1.09 ERA with 27 strikeouts and nine walks (a 2.5 BB/9 rate). He should be on the radar in all formats (even redrafts) this spring.

4. Jeff Hoffman, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG

The Blue Jays selected Hoffman ninth overall in the 2014 draft despite him needing Tommy John surgery. The injury will set his timeline back, but his upside is a frontline starter. The Orioles recently kicked the tires on Hoffman in exchange for Dan Duquette and I’d like to think the Blue Jays wouldn’t even consider it. In first-year player drafts this winter, Hoffman should be one of the first arms off the board despite the injury. Once he’s back on the mound his stock should rise quickly.

5. Devon Travis, 2B | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
441 68 118 20 7 10 52 8.4% 13.6% 16 5 .298 .358 .460

Travis came over from the Tigers in the Anthony Gose trade this offseason. The Tigers had begun transitioning Travis to the outfield, but the Blue Jays need him more at the keystone. He’s close to MLB ready despite core muscle surgery this fall, and with only Maicer Izturis ahead on the 2B depth chart, a polished Travis should be getting MLB at bats shortly. That’s different from a Polish Travis, who should be getting another shipment of pierogies and sausages shortly. There’s no one standout tool, but he does a little of everything well and put up good numbers in Double-A as a 23-year-old. He’s a worthwhile play in AL-only leagues this year.

6. Max Pentecost, C | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
109 17 34 4 3 0 12 1.8% 19.3% 2 2 .324 .330 .419

Catching prospects aren’t always a great bet. They take a while to cook and many times their value is inflated on traditional lists thanks to their tools on defense. In fantasy we just don’t care about a catcher’s defense – sorry, Austin Hedges. Pentecost was selected 11th overall in the 2014 draft and is more fantasy relevant than the average backstop thanks to a hit tool that already grades above average. How the power develops will be something to watch, but it’s not a stretch for him to get to double-digit homers in a park like Toronto’s. On the flip side, it’s going to be about three years before he gets there.

7. Dwight Smith, OF | Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
533 83 134 28 8 12 60 10.9% 12.9% 15 4 .284 .363 .453

Smith won’t appear on your traditional top tens, but there’s a lot to like here from a fantasy perspective. The 22-year-old had a breakout in 2014, raising his slugging percentage by 65 points and swatting five more homers than he had in 2013. He led the pitching-friendly Florida State League in OPS, runs scored, and extra-base hits as a 21-year-old last year. Smith is behind Pompey on the center field depth chart, but could find a role in left field. He also took some reps at second base in the AFL, so there’s added versatility there. The pretty walk and strikeout percentages are what catch your eye in his stat line. There’s a good approach at the plate and he didn’t have to sacrifice that approach to get to the increase in power. In fact, his strikeout rate dropped about 4% while his walk rate remained the same.

8. D.J. Davis, OF | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
542 56 105 13 7 8 52 6.6% 30.8% 19 20 .213 .268 .316

D.J. Davis is on the ones and twos and he’s mixing double-plus speed with a .213 batting average. Whoop! The obvious red flag here is the 20 times he was caught stealing, but that can trend in the right direction with more coaching and experience. The bigger issue is the strikeout rate and hit tool in general. Both are going to have to show more signs of life if Davis is going to be fantasy relevant. The good news is that 2014 was just his first full season and he was still young for the MWL. The former first-round pick deserves a mulligan if you’re a dynasty league owner.

9. Jairo Labourt, LHP | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
5 3 2.54 21 18 0 85.0 62 30 24 1 6.0 9.8 .207

Labourt is a lefty with a #3 starter ceiling and a low-90s sinker. Both his fastball and slider are graded as plus pitches, and he put up some really nice numbers in the Northwest League at 20 years old. He led the league in both batting average against (.188) and strikeouts per nine (10.4). In 71 innings there he also never allowed a home run. This is an exciting prospect that really wasn’t on a lot of radars coming into the season. In one competitive 20-team dynasty I participate in, he is still sitting in free agency. Now’s a good time to scoop him before he puts up good numbers at higher levels.

10. Dawel Lugo, SS | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
498 40 123 17 2 4 53 3.6% 14.5% 3 3 .259 .286 .329

Lugo may eventually move off of shortstop, especially with Richard Urena’s superior defense, but he has enough bat to warrant a spot in this fantasy top ten. Lugo was a J2 signing back in 2011, and has steadily progressed through the first few levels of the minors. 2014 was his first full season of pro ball, and he spent the entirety of it in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old. He’s held his own thus far, but it will take some more time to see what kind of power he has in his bat. I’d take a wait-and-see approach in most dynasty formats for the time being.

Blue Jays Previews2014 | 2013

AL T10 Prospects Index

  1. El Famous Burrito says:
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    Mike,

    Do you think the Blue Jays think Devon Travis is their 2B answer this year, or maybe they make a run at Hector Olivera?

    Also, what are your thoughts on Sean Reid-Foley?

    thanks for the lists man.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      anytime…thanks for reading

      A healthy Travis should at least be in consideration for the 2B job. Olivera is kind of a wild card at this point.

      Reid-Foley is a solid pitching prospect with #3 starter ceiling. Just not enough room on the list with some of the options on the offensive side. He’d be in the 10-15 range though.

  2. S.H says:
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    Mike, Would you trade in a 40 player keeper league Tulo for C.Seager,CJ Edwards , T.Glasnow and the 19th pick in the first year player draft. Or is that a bit risky considering Tulo,idea of a full season isn’t 162 games.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Makes sense if you’re rebuilding. If you have a competitive team now it’s better to hold Tulo IMO.

      • S.H says:
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        @Mike:
        Mike My team is
        C. W.Rosario
        1b P.Fielder
        2B.I.Kinsler
        3b-Headley
        ss-A.cabrera
        of-Bruce
        of-Calhoun
        of.C.Carter
        of.Rios
        Bench.Gyorko,Fowler,Freese,
        Also Dahl,Sano Seager
        SP.Cole,Hamels,Leake,Masterson,G.Richards,Cain,Garza,Nova and CC
        Rp. Clippard,Motte, Mujica,Romo
        Prospects.Butler,CJ Edwards Glasnow and Taillion

        Trading for Tulo, would help my offence, would you suggest upgrading third, outfield or rp or hold at third until Sano is ready.??

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Should be able to hold on at third until Sano is ready. I’d take Tulo there.

  3. Phil says:
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    5×5 R,HR,RBI,SB,OBP W,SV,K,ERA,WHIP

    Keep 1:
    Ian Desmond
    Josh Donaldson
    Jacoby Ellsbury

    and

    Keep 1:
    Jeff Samardzija
    Julio Teheran

    Already Keeping:
    Mike Trout
    Paul Goldschmidt
    George Springer*Rookie Keeper

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Donaldson, Samardzija

      • Phil says:
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        @Mike: Thanks. Good stuff on the BJs

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime…thanks!

  4. Lville Jim says:
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    If LaBourt could get his walks in order he’d be serious fantasy hard on material.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      For real…I’m kind of a sucker for lefties but he’s a solid prospect.

  5. goodfold2 says:
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    BA’s lists finally finished up. Mella #4, so the only site that had him at 14 or so was main reason i waited too long, next year i’ll not get cute and try to gauge market and just grab best players sooner. Does F.Perez 2B/3B make your top 10 for SD, or is he just outside? And I’m guessing matt duffy SF is just outside top 10 as well. Only one of these TOR players left out there is Lugo, and i’m glad to see even with as awful a season as DJ Davis had he only fell 4-5 spots here. He’s what i got (along with V.Alcantara and R.Yarbrough with the later picks) when i traded down 15 spots (which is the true cause of missing Mella, since i would’ve grabbed him with the pick the opp traded up to get.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: new BP out and in my house. They keep making them smaller and smaller, this time the print got smaller (last year they used thinner pages, that this year too), page count down to 475, down from 572 two years ago.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Cool! I’m knee deep in Up Up and Away by Keri at the moment.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Wow

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      It happens. So basically I ended up highest on him from what you’ve told me.

      I don’t see F. Perez making it on SD, or at least not ranking in the top half. Just have to be patient with Davis.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Scratch that. Looking at that farm, he probably makes it. Back half though.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Mike: you are highest, but reason i left him sitting there thinking i could get him later wasn’t that you were that much higher, at the time 2 different sites that now have him ranked pretty high (4th) weren’t posted yet. You aren’t that much higher than those sites. If i thought those sites were going to have him that high i would’ve figured i had to grab him much earlier (rounds earlier). Drafting this early really isn’t a good idea (i don’t control it though). Why we’re doing free agent bidding now (and for some asinine reason leaving the last 41 days before the season starts doing nothing) instead of the draft last is beyond sense.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          huh…that is a little weird. In mine we do FA first, then FYPD

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Mike: yeah, that seems to make sense, to seal up actual starting roster, so then to do draft, since your needs are well known after the bidding.

            • goodfold2 says:
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              @goodfold2: also, the more info (your lists, other sites too) possible for draft, the better, and we start so damn early a lot of it isn’t out there. the books too, BP just today, BA’s prospect guide still not out.

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                yup, they are good to use as a point of reference, but still have to do a lot of digging around so you’re prepared for a draft that early

  6. Del Griffith says:
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    Hey Mike,

    I see Miguel Castro didn’t make the top 10. Was he close to cracking the list or is he too early on in development?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Definitely considered him, Osuna, and Reid-Foley. All three are on the edge and it was just a matter of preference to go with Labourt and a bat to round out the ten.

  7. Swfcdan says:
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    Nice list. Are these team prospect charts done in order of farm strength, presumably from worst to first?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks! They are, but since we start early they are actually last year’s organizational rankings. So they are a little misleading in that regard since some teams obviously made improvements or got worse as the year went on. We’re about halfway through with two posts per week starting soon.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Mike: Way to keep us coming throughout the offseason!

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Wow…you really like these! haha, no problem Dan

  8. Matt says:
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    Which five do you like for next year?

    7×7 obp slg hold QS.

    hey are our first five picks, no prices.

    11 team yahoo league (so 10 offense spots and 1300 IP limit)

    Freeman
    Cano
    J Upton
    Chris Davis
    Seager
    Soler
    Dickerson
    Jose F
    Arrieta
    Lester

    Thank you

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Cano, Upton, Seager, Soler, Lester

  9. DrEasy says:
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    I don’t know if DJ Davis will ever make it to the bigs… I know you also considered Castro and Osuna, but Alford could be an interesting sleeper too, now that he’s given up on football. He’s been invited to spring training, so that’s an exciting story to follow.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Agreed on Alford. As far as Davis, your guess is as good as mine. This time next year the two could trading places if Davis struggles again.

  10. Swfcdan says:
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    What’s your thoughts on a guy im not too keen on purely because of where he will pitch, Jon Gray.Inherited him in my new keeper league and that exact reason is what is making me less high on him, no Coloradan (Coloradoan?) pitcher (not named Ubaldo) has ever been any good, and Ubaldo was a brief dominant spell too. Hear Gray has a great slider to supplement his heat, but we all know how Coors flattens out breaking balls so that isn’t too promising.

    Is he a definate sell-high guy now, or midseason when hes dominating the minors? Can he possibly flourish in Coors? Got an owner interested and thinking now might be a chance to offload for a different piece.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Depends of course on what you’re getting back, but I’d sell. He’s a really talented pitcher but your concerns are legit.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Mike: Ok will get back to you if we come up with something more concrete.

        Seriously though has Colorado ever had any other good pitchers non named Ubaldo? I know they are a relatively new franchise, not sure how new though (I only started following baseball from here in UK in about 2004). I suppose Chacin was ok a couple of years…

        • Swfcdan says:
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          @Swfcdan: Though I suppose a 4.50ERA is “good” pitching at mile high altitude haha.

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            Cool, you should be able to get something decent for him.

            Yeah, Chacin and I guess De La Rosa has been pretty solid.

            • Swfcdan says:
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              @Mike: Big guy what do you think of Alex Guerrero? Noticed he’s not on MLB.coms top 100 list, pretty sure he must be prospect eligable still. Where does he rank on your list, is he in your top 50 if not where would you rank him you reckon.

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                Well, he’s not in my Top 50. He’s a little tricky to rank because he’s already 28 years old and doesn’t really have a role with the team outside of a bench bat. He may even spend the year in Triple-A again. I think he’s going to be on the Dodgers’ list that comes out Wednesday though.

                • Swfcdan says:
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                  @Mike: Is there an opening for him on the roster for 2015? Thought he was meant to be called up in 2014 before that nasty ear biting incident happened, so would be very suprised if they left him stewing in their farm. If he hasnt got a job youd think theyd move him, or at least use him as a super utility guy.

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    Super-utility guy looks like the scenario if he’s on the 25-man roster.

                    • Swfcdan says:
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                      @Mike: Many suprises you see on the MLB.com top prospects list? One I saw was Franco at 55, at Urias at 8 (though that kid is a phenom), Norris at 17 seemed fairly nuts too.

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      Not totally surprised. Franco does seem to have swung too far in the other direction. I’m not sure Law even ranked him this year. I’m cool with Urias there, but he’s a little lower on my fantasy list. I’m higher on Bundy. I understand Norris since he’s a solid lefty who’s basically already in the majors, kind of like Heaney is. I’m a little lower on Jackson on the fantasy list and a lot higher on Tim Anderson. I think he deserves a little more love.

  11. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    yahoo opened up, got my first reupped team open. 20 team dynasty with lots of extra stat categories. h2h. walks/doubles/triples/put outs/outfield assists/double plays/intentional walks/assists/grand slams, for pitchers complete games/shutouts/double plays/holds/relief wins/ k per 9/ QS/ pickoffs/ relief appearances. start 1 of each position with 1 util, with 5 SP, 7 RP per day. I have the 18th draft slot, and this is NOT a snake draft. I can keep, at most 25 of these. 5 NA slots, but we can’t slot them in till after the draft. At all times i have to have at least 9 TEX players.
    C – zunino
    1B – kennys/fielder
    2B – gyorko
    SS – andrus
    3B – beltre
    LF – choo/ozuna/pierce/pompey/alex guerrero
    CF – leonys/cain sugar/ozuna/
    RF – stanton/rios/choo/cain sugar
    SP – darvish/d.holland/liriano/hammel/quintana/hahn/house
    RP – K-Rob/melancon/giles/soria/cotts/walden
    NA possibles: profar/gallo/n.williams/urias/a.bradley/c.frazier
    obvious drops are House/Cotts (shittier bullpen spot at MIL)/A.Guerrero/Hammel. Gotta drop at least 4 more. Guessing they are N.Williams/Soria/Cain Sugar and 1 other out of walden/kennys/pierce/pompey? RP are clearly the easiest thing to replace later, but Walden/Soria are looking like pretty top shelf holds guys, and I probably need less than 7 OF guys, currently at 7 without cain sugar and a.guerrero.

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: also, i’m assuming my best 25 are better than whoever i’d draft?

      • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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        @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: post draft i clearly slot my NA guys, and go about finding 3-4 holds guys. i’ve clearly got the best saves chance in entire league, with 3 good closers in a 20 team league.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          I’d find a way to protect Williams even if you have to lose the holds guys.

          • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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            @Mike: i miscounted, i actually would have to drop 2 of walden/pierce/pompey/kennys. And if I wanted to keep N.Williams i’d have to drop 3 of those (or somebody else). Are you saying N.Williams ISN’T my weakest possble NA guy? So clearly you are saying Walden is one of the drops. Also i forgot, as of right now Giles isn’t closer yet. Profar might end up in MLB to start the year as well, he’d be one of my bench guys if so. Also, there’s a rule in this league that you can only have 1 or none with BN pitchers.

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              Walden, Williams, Pearce

              You should tell your commish to make that league more complicated. Those rules are way to simple. (jk)

              • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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                @Mike: it was looking like pierce there, i’ll sure be pissed if that guy keeps on doing what he did last year AND choo/rios both suck at the same rate they did last year. I still have my minimum 9 TEX players with this setup. Comish is the same guy that runs a league like this for all 4 sports, a 20 team hockey/ 20 team football (with FULL real life 11 starter IDP’s), so he’s worth following around, all very deep leagues. My first time with IDP’s this past year, thrown straight into deep water.

                • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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                  @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: i did agree with no being able to stash your 4 BN slots with SP, as there’d simply be nearly no even possibly useful ones out there, as most teams would stash as many decent ones as possible if they could. As is, there are some ok streamers running around. I got lucky midseason finding liriano/hammel when they were at their worst. At one point during the year (right when Darvish went out first time) my starting pitching was str up garbage. Found Beckett, traded Avisail and R.Liriano for Quintana/K-Rob.

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    Nice. Looks like you’ve built a good team there considering you were new and had to get used to all the quirks. I have never played in a league that counts defensive stats so that part of it is Greek to me.

                    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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                      @Mike: all these leagues were in their first season last year. I chose TEX predraft and kept as many TEX players as i wanted to. I had the idea that you had to use their ADP’s for round value (to make it fair to teams that had shitty players to keep), but comish thought it was too much trouble to implement (re: lazy). I told him i’d basically do it for him, he’d just get to slot the guys into which round they would be kept. It made teams like mine unfairly better really, as some of the crappier teams had to keep shittier players, and they didn’t even cost less than my guys. With MIL/MIA/COL not being teams in this league, all of Cargo/Cargo 2/Tulo/Braun were drafted in first round. I went at 10th or 11th and STANTON was still there! In the football i got 18th as i was WAS, and their team was so awful there was nothing i could’ve done about it, basically having their entire offense and A.Peterson. i also lost a lot of games close. (had enough pts overall to be about 13th team)

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      Huh, that’s interesting.

Comments are closed.