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In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I won’t mention it again because I don’t know what it means other than most bars have deals on tequila shots.  What I will talk about is the pitchers that are getting lucky thus far according to their xFIP.  If you don’t know what the xFIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Dustin Moseley – -2.21.  I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games.  At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.

Alexi Ogando – -1.89.  “His stuff is soooooo nasty!”  That’s you.  Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever?  Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.

Josh Tomlin – -1.57.  It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers.  Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.

Zach Britton – -1.53.  Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9).  Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point.  Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.

Kevin Correia – -1.45.  Wait, Correia actually sucks?  C’mon!  Get outta town, Grey!

Justin Masterson – -1.42.  Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2′s, at least you should’ve known.  But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward.  At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.

Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38.  To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.

Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29.  This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel.  Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.

Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned.  If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.

Trevor Cahill – -1.23.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.

220 Responses

  1. Steve Stevenson says:
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    What’s up with Zimmermann’s strikeout rate? You still like him as a #5/6 SP going forward over the likes of the turds above?

    Also, do you think D. Hudson’s a fair return for R. Roberts?

  2. michael bourne says:
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    I wouldn’t be surprised if my entire staff made a list of +xFIP differentials.

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    im riding ogando and britton till they start to come apart

  4. royce! says:
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    I agree that Moseley should regress somewhat, but I don’ think it will be all that extreme. He doesn’t K anyone, but his GB rate is very high, and his HR/FB rate is capable of staying somewhat close to where it is now (6.1) due to Petco. Same goes for Cahill and Britton (though not the Petco part).

    I’d be most worried about Ogando, if I owned him anywhere. His LD rate is over 20, his GB rate is like 30, and his BABIP and LOB are impossible to sustain.

  5. Eng says:
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    Would you offer your Padilla for his Broxton? Thinking long term, or just plain old over-thinking…

  6. scalez says:
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    Remember when John Lackey used to be good and strike people out? Good times.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve Stevenson: I’d want Hudson. Zimmermann’s fastball still has life, think it’s a small sample size.

    @royce!: Yup

    @Eng: Overthinking…

  8. Cinco de Mayo is more than just another excuse to party.

    The holiday, which is celebrated more abroad than actually in Mexico, commemorates the Battle of Puebla which took place on May 5, 1862.

    The underdog victory for Mexico pushed French forces out of the state of Puebla against seemingly insurmountable odds. Next year the 150th anniversary of the battle will be celebrated.

    Cinco de Mayo is not Mexican Independence Day. That holiday, which is more widely honored in Mexico, is actually celebrated on September 16.

    So how did the day become so popular in the U.S.?

    Aside from marketing and other commercial reasons for furthering the holiday, many view the day as a way to further the cultural significance of the holiday, according to MTV. However, it’s key to acknowledge that liqour companies and Mexican restaurants have had a lot to do with bolstering the holiday, using it as an excuse to go a little crazy.

    In any case, take the day to sit back, relax, and crack open a Corona (or Modelo) and honor the underdog victory. Don Julio, or 1800 also works!

  9. scalez says:
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    round of Dos Equis for everyone.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dr. Stats: Wow, more like Dr. Mexican Cultural Ambassador.

  11. Will says:
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    Ike Davis or Grady Sizemore?

  12. Will says:
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    Melancon or Padilla?

  13. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Grey: In my 6×6 league that counts OBP and AVG, I’m having a surprisingly hard time finding steals. With Gardy and Bourjos not stealing nearly as much as I thought they would and Span being the so-so basestealer that he is (lets say he finishes with 18 – 20 SB), I’m looking at Bourgeois instead of Span. What do you think? Only thing that bugs me about the Houston speedster is the question of whether or not he’ll play when Caballo comes back.

    Bourgeois is out there for the taking. Grab him and dump Denard?

  14. frank rizzo says:
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    Don’t look now but Aybar at the top of the Angels lineup has been quite nice. 2 more SB’s today.

  15. MrHappyTime says:
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    Should I drop Tabata for Bourgeois? I really need stolen bases and I have no idea when Tabata is coming back or going to the dl?

  16. Not related to this chain, but here is my question:

    With 1B in such a sh*tty state in both ARI and SD, how long before Brandon Allen (solid #s) and/or Anthony Rizzo (mashing right now), get called up for a real shot? And if so, which one has a better chance at succeeding this year, and in the long term?

  17. Royo says:
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    It should be noted that Guthrie has consistently outperformed his FIP and xFIP. I’m not saying you want him outside of 16 team leagues. I’m just saying after 800 or so innings, he seems to be doing something that isn’t captured well by those metrics. He is a fine option in deeper leagues and it wouldn’t surprise me if he throws up a 3.3 ERA with a good WHIP one of these years.

  18. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Grey: We have a limited number of roster moves (80 for the entire season, including playoffs) in this league, so that’s why I’m worried about his playing time. Otherwise I’d have made the move already.

  19. agarthered says:
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    Start/Sit Baker tomorrow at Boston (dice bb)?

  20. chata says:
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    if you started lackey today , you haven’t been paying attention .
    sawx are trying to rest their pen today .
    throw-away game .

  21. scalez says:
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    run run run all day on the Sawx

  22. scalez says:
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    @chata: he didn’t buy them much rest haha

  23. royce! says:
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    @Monti: My guess is June for Rizzo, and I think he will be better than Allen. Also, Paul Goldschmidt has a good chance of overtaking Allen. While Goldschmidt is at AA, his OPS is over 1.200. Allen’s been no slouch (.855 at AAA), I think he might be in the same boat as Kyle Blanks soon.

  24. chata says:
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    @scalez:

    surprised they took him out so early .
    only threw 91 pitches .
    prolly had another 15-20 pitches left in that arm of his .

  25. scalez says:
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    @chata: protecting their great investment I guess

  26. jrad says:
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    @grey or whoever
    would cano for ryan zimmerman, masterson, and walden be a good idea or hold? i seem to lose hr and rbi most weeks and i feel like i have plenty of starting pitching. heres my lineup
    Carlos Santana, Cle C
    Adam LaRoche, Was 1B
    Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B
    Ryan Roberts, Ari OF
    Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS
    Starlin Castro, ChC SS
    Mike Napoli, Tex C
    Andre Ethier, LAD OF
    Ben Zobrist, TB 2B
    Colby Rasmus, StL OF
    Dexter Fowler, Col OF
    Alex Gordon, KC OF
    Jay Bruce, Cin OF
    Cole Hamels, Phi SP
    Chad Billingsley, LAD SP
    Brett Myers, Hou SP
    J.J. Putz, Ari RP
    Jordan Walden, LAA RP
    Cliff Lee, Phi SP
    Matt Capps, Min RP
    Edinson Volquez, Cin SP
    Justin Masterson, Cle SP
    Tommy Hanson, Atl SP
    Justin Morneau, Min 1B
    Francisco Liriano, Min SP
    Ryan Zimmerman*, Was 3B

  27. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Grey: I hear that. Gardy and Bourjos should get running at some point. SB are so streaky… Another cause for pause – I’ve already used 19 of those moves and we’re only in week 5.

  28. ujoh says:
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    I’ve got Gardner as my UTIL right now, and with Hanley, Kemp, Victorino, Espinosa and (to an extent) Longoria, I don’t have much need for a SAGNOF. It’s a H2H league and I consistenly win steals with this lineup even though Gardner has done next to nothing.

    Should I assume it’ll stay that way, or try to find a guy who’s more all around, like Aviles?

    Or should I find someone with power? Howard and Stanton are also in my lineup, so it’s fairly strong too. Gaby, Pena, Gomes, R.Roberts, Scott and Robot are all on the waivers.

    I can bench Gardner and set my lineup accordingly depending on who I’m playing, but that would require me dropping Broxton. I have Gregg and Farnsworth as my other closers and will never start more than 2.

  29. Will says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey, I just pulled the trigger I traded Ike Davis for Sizemore. I sure hope Sizemore starts running sometime soon to make this worth it

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @jrad: Hold

    @3FingersBrown: Yeah, you need to chillax a little with the moves.

    @ujoh: Can go with Scott.

    @Will: No problem.

  31. Ian says:
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    As a Lyon owner I have to put a bid in on Melancon. Would you simply drop Lyon for him or wait for the MRI results (bid due by 5 pm cst)? Or drop Uribe/Espinosa (it’s an NL only league)?

    Which brings me to……You like Ian Stewart over Espinosa/Uribe? I need power more than speed in this league and am able to play Uribe anywhere on the infield so I’m leaning towards taking Stewart and dropping Espinosa. Thanks ahead of time Grey!

  32. ltf says:
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    Andy Dirks and Charlie Blackmon look like decent OF options in AAA for this season. I like Dirks a lot more considering his SB potential, AVG, and ability to play all 3 OF positions…and obviously spawning countless Detroit-based Dirks Digglers fantasy baseball teams.

  33. Piniero is having another nice outing… good to see him start off strong… his lack of K’s suck, but if he keeps helping in 3 of the 5 categories i’ll take it.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ian: I’d lose Lyon and Uribe.

    @ltf: Thanks for the heads up!

  35. Ian says:
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    Thanks! Also forgot to mention that I could very easily part with Pedro Alvarez too instead of Uribe/Espinosa. That change anything?

  36. brad says:
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    in an 14 team H2H points league with weekly lineup lock i have too many decent SPs and not enough aces. For 5 SP slots I have Sanchez, Marcum, Garza, Chacin, De La Rosa, Bumgarner, Beachy and I’m playing the matchup/2 start game but it’s getting kind of old.

    Would you trade Marcum and Garza for the likes of Hamels or Sabathia?

    Any duo you WOULDN’T trade for a top starter?

  37. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @scalez: Not quite a CG 12-K outing for Price, but close.

    Your opponent obviously didn’t know Price was 7-0 with a miniscule ERA in 8 starts vs the Jays.

  38. scalez says:
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    @brad: Marcum would be the one I’d hold and try to pair up others first.

  39. scalez says:
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    @VinWins: or he was hungover…either way it spells profit for me. :)

  40. Wilsonian says:
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    Pineiro or Bedard going furwurd?

  41. scalez says:
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    good lord what did Chapman do to me?

  42. charlie batch says:
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    How about beachy, pineda, liriano, gallardo? Are they fiping kidding us?

  43. charlie batch says:
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    @charlie batch: re liriano – fipping kidding us, in the hopeful kind of way

  44. EK says:
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    Boesch or Smoak in a 12-team H2H?

  45. @charlie batch: Did some reading on Liriano today. An interview with the pitching coach in Minnesotta, seemed like he was saying Liriano is a head case, and that he was getting down on himself. So hopefully the no-hitter will spark a turn around in confidence.

  46. scalez says:
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    I don’t like seeing letters other than “o” in my ratio columns. :(

  47. Wilsonian says:
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    Who wins this deal:

    Wright/Dunn for Stanton/Bruce?

    I’ve got Longoria at 3rd, Prince at 1st, and Lind that can also play some 1st. Not sure I would do it, just looking at some opinions. Thanks.

  48. charlie batch says:
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    @Wolfpack: interesting, wouldnt doubt it. there’s so much more to athletics than talent and work ethic. thanks for reply.

  49. scalez says:
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    Angels/Sawx looking like Drago/Creed today.

  50. charlie batch says:
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    @Wilsonian: wright/dunn wins all day. stanton = dunn if he fulfills his potential (an “if”), and bruce = wright minus steals if he fulfills HIS potential (another “if”).

    dont play with fire

  51. GopherDay says:
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    Is there a term for when a speedster gets an extra-base hit instead of a single with a SB? Maybe its just me, but I get kind of annoyed whenever Bourjos hits a double…Hit the single and just steal 2B…My stats enjoy that more.

  52. charlie batch says:
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    @scalez: haha

  53. ltf says:
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    @Wilsonian: Stanton/Bruce, especially if this is dynasty. Stanton entered MLB as one of the most powerful hitters from day one, and Bruce has some crazy stretches espcially playing at home.

    Adam Dunn reminds me too much of Darryl Strawberry(stop laughing, at the plate…). One day he won’t be able to track the ball as well and it’s a tijuana donkey show. I don’t have the greatest confidence in him going forward.

  54. scalez says:
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    @GopherDay: How bout Vitamined? Bourjos vitamined me out of a single and steal by hitting a double.

  55. Wake Up says:
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    Great post. I’d like to read the inverse, what pitchers to target that are getting unlucky.

  56. chata says:
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    just remembered something pretty cool about going to pittsburgh’s
    pnc park .

    in the field boxes , along 1st and 3rd base lines ,
    the ushers try and make sure that each kid in their section
    goes home with a game-used ball .

    even the ushers right next to the dug-outs will assist other ushers
    in accomplishing this task by asking the players , both home and visiting ,
    for the balls , as they come in off the field at the end of the inning .
    also , infield warm-up balls never seem to make it back into the dug-outs .

    cust kayin’

  57. ltf says:
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    @Wilsonian: I am assuming you’re trading David Wright? There are people desperate for a 3B. It reminds me of the saying that no matter how beautiful a woman is, someone is tired of hearing her shit. Do you really want to go back to picking up girls in the supermarket when you’ve got a ten at home? I’d stay away from a trade like this in a one-year or multi-year unless I had a stacked OF and needed 3B.

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: How about Premature Extrabasulation?

  59. scalez says:
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    @ltf: pickin’ up broads at the supermarket :D Why paint such a great thing in such a bad light?

  60. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    @Grey: Permission to drop Lyon for… anything? Or do I hold onto him for a few days? I bet the doctor looked at his shoulder and said, “Meh.”

    I like these Sabr-geeky posts. I still like Cahill. His K-rate and K/BB rates are both very good. For those same reasons, I consider Travis Wood a good buy-low candidate.

  61. scalez says:
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    @Shmorgie S. Board: Doctor slowly removes glasses. Sits down beside Lyon and says “There is nothing physically wrong with your arm. You are just very poor at what you do. And don’t think you’re leaving here with that Highlights magazine.”

  62. Arrec Bardwin says:
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    Tony La Russa is the devil. I benched sanchez today in favor of boggs because he kazaam’d me yesterday. Of course, sanchez just recorded the save (2 walks no K’s).

    Also, Brett Anderson has allowed no baserunners through 4 innings so far.

  63. Wilsonian says:
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    @charlie batch: @scalez: thanks for the responses. That’s why I ask the questions. I’m not sure I would even do it, but now you guys have got me thinking for sure it’s a no.

    @ltf: and then dammit, you come in here and make me question it again. It is a lifetime keeper, but we only keep 5, and they’d be competing with Longoria, Prince, Kemp, CarGo.

    @ltf: I would be dealing Wright/Dunn. I’m not sure I get what you mean, are you meaning what I have now is good enough in Wright and Dunn, so don’t go chasing the hot tail (Bruce/Stanton)?

    @Grey: thanks for the head(‘s) up. Bedard it is, and based on the other comments, along with yours, I’ll stick with Wright.

    @E’erybody: what about Krispie/Dunn/Santos Claus for Stanton/Bruce? The two Young Guns by a landslide?

  64. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Heh, I like it!

  65. Chinaski says:
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    @Ian:

    I definitely wouldnt drop Uribe. You said you need power and Uribe is an absolutely overlooked and underrated power source. He can easily give you 20 HRs and around 70-80 RBIs and his position flexibility is gold.

  66. scalez says:
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    @Wilsonian: lifetime keeper makes a world of difference. Still, Wright has a lot of long term value especially if he can get out of the Mess. You could be looking at AROD type dividends over the haul and as noted it’s a lot tougher to find solutions at 3B than OF.

    The Krispie/Dunn/Santos deal would be a no-brainer IMO.

  67. ltf says:
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    @scalez: lmao. I am dealing with a small sample size. The last girl I met at rock and roll ralphs in hollywood was great but sent me 20+ voicemails/texts about her alcoholic father, and “fuck you and all your secrets.” I can give you her number if you want a one-night stand and to shut your phone off for a day or two.

  68. ltf says:
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    @Wilsonian: I would suggest trying to move the trade towards Dunn and someone else, make up some bullshit about why you love David Wright. I know some assholes in leagues who just plain deny even having the player anymore, haha.

    I’m just saying with the analogy that David Wright is a lot more valuable considering how few 3B there are. I’m sure you can read a few of the comments in here and there are people digging deep for 3B production. You have a luxury in Longoria and Wright, why not keep Longoria, Kemp, Prince, Wright, and CarGo? Who would be left out? The trade confuses me more as you’d be looking to keep these two OF but only have one keeper spot available when Wright is traded?

  69. scalez says:
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    @ltf: sounds like you’re the one who made the mistake of giving out your information. Did you learn your lesson? :D

  70. bravo says:
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    Hi Grey or anybody else,

    Would you start Lohse vs MIL?

  71. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    @scalez: In fact, Lyon’s arm can slow down time to support his shoplifting career.

  72. Stinky Cheese Man says:
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    Which side..

    Uggla for Krispie Young?

  73. ltf says:
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    @scalez: I tried not to, but how do you get away with not giving your number when girls can just stand in front of you and text or call you back? I’ve already lived through the awkwardness of giving fake numbers face to face, so I am ready to learn any lesson you want to pass on.

  74. ltf says:
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    @Shmorgie S. Board: Brandon Lyon is a shoplifter? People in Detroit and Houston might actually have a better opinion of him now!

  75. Wilsonian says:
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    @ltf: that’s exactly who I kept this year…Prince, Longo, Wright, Kemp, CarGo. In dealing Wright, I would be able to keep Bruce or Stanton, and could, at the very worst, deal one of them in the off season. Or I could keep one of my SPs (with the likes of Lincecum, Verlander, Hamels on my team).

    The further clarify, I wasn’t offered the deal. I was trying to come up with a scenario that might acquire Bruce and Stanton and that was one that I thought might actually get accepted. But I wasn’t sure if I’d even want to offer that. Due to what you guys have said, I won’t even consider it. BUT, I may toss some other stuff out (like Dunn/Krispie/Santos). Thanks for the opinion.

  76. scalez says:
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    @ltf: rule #1: everybody is bats**t crazy until proven otherwise.

    Always get their number. Unfortunately, you cracked the screen on your phone and are getting it repaired but they’re being dicks about it and you might cancel the contract. You can quantify giving a fake number at this stage and briskly move on to step two. Getting her number, if you’re into numbers. The most reliable method is just saying “get in the car.”

  77. Chinaski says:
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    @bravo: No

  78. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    @ltf: He’s been stealing a major leaguer’s salary for years…

  79. Wilsonian says:
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    @E’erybody, again: What about something like this:

    Wright/Dunn/(maybe someone like Santos – he needs closers) for Pujols/Stanton (or Bruce)?

    He’s got Votto and Pujols, and has Mini Donkey at 3rd.

  80. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Start Volquez at Chicago tomorrow?

  81. Probable Party Starter says:
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    I’m trying to dangle Tomlin out there while the dangling is good. Who’d you go after on the dead cat bounce xFIP side? I’d even be willing to toss in (gasp!) one of my other pew-pew SP (Deunsing/Fister/Stauffer iin that order) to a guy who needs help in the Volume categories.

  82. DHill Dragons says:
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    Thanks for the insightful piece.

    Ogando or Norris? (for at least the next 2 weeks)

  83. d2bnz says:
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    Can’t believe I’m asking you a schmohawk question but……..I have Raburn at 2B , should I persist with him or pick up Freddy Sanchez, David Murphy , Mark Ellis or Adam kennedy………yuck.

  84. charlie batch says:
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    holliday/hanson or heyward/oswalt/axford

  85. Flunkie says:
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    In a keeper, would you rather have Cliff Lee and Lester or Haren and Lester?

    I know it seems silly.. but how much longer does Lee keep on keepin’ on?

  86. Flunkie says:
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    Crap, hit reply too early.

    In addition to the above, what two do you like together? Marcum, Hellickson, Shields

  87. Whiskey Diet says:
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    Hosmer gets the call!

    Welcome to the bigs Eric Hosmer. Enjoy AAA Kila while we find a trade partner.

    Royals nation baby.

  88. scalez says:
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    @Whiskey Diet: nice…been waiting to see him step up.

  89. Deeeeeeez Nuts says:
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    What’s the deal with Hosmer? worthy of util spot? “must pick up”?

  90. Joe B says:
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    Surprised they called Homerin’ Hosmer up before June 1st… the Royals must think he’s ready for the bigs right now. He was absolutely raking in AAA and I just dropped “Swing and Miss” Nick Swisher for him… sleep well sweet prince.

  91. Whiskey Diet says:
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    Grey, drop Narveson for Hosmer in a 14 Team H2H?

    I’m leaning towards no but as a lifelong Royals fan, I can’t watch some other schmohawk grab him so…

  92. Joe B says:
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    @Deeeeeeez Nuts: If you can drop someone who you don’t necessarily need right now and can wait to see if Hosmer hits right away, then I say grab him. You never know when you’ll catch lightning in a bottle. He’s a top prospect for a reason, but remember he’s only 21.

  93. Eddie says:
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    The Sciosciapath needs to let Trumbo play every frikkin day. All he does is hit home runs.

  94. Dirty Jersey says:
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    I will piggyback off the Whiskey Diet…. Stauffer getting 2 starts next week, I am thinking of switching, but long term, which Hodgepadre is better to own…… Narveson or Stauffer?

  95. Steve says:
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    You know things are bad when you’re getting beaten up in H2H because of Melky Cabrera.

  96. Joe B says:
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    I wonder if Hosmer will be jealous of Billy Butler’s moobs? Might be some moob envy in the young stud’s future…

  97. scalez says:
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    @Joe B: he shall suckle from the moobs and gain nutrients which nurture him into manhood.

  98. lou rodney says:
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    Is it time to give up on Kelly Johnson? He’s riding the bench in my keeper league.

  99. Martin says:
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    @grey- Joyce or Hosmer?

  100. Flunkie says:
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    HOSMER OR HOSMER?!

  101. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    i grabbed hosmer in all 3 leagues,he gets 2 weeks to hit or not much lost but ogando in 1 league,kinda hate cutting him but im at the top in all pitching and was carrying 7 starters,no one would trade anything for him,he gets the yanks next anyway

  102. Wilsonian says:
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    Anyone got any projections on Hosmer? Who does he compare to? I just snagged him in my 16 Teamer for Bedard.

  103. Steve says:
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    OK Tribe, three-run lead and then out, thanks.

  104. jsp2014 says:
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    happy get blacked out off tequila shots day.

    how much do you think Hosmer is worth in AL-only ($100 budget)? is $40 or 50 excessive?

  105. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Uh oh.

  106. scalez says:
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    Beacky K’s the side to start the game. Nice.

  107. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Exhales.

  108. Higgins says:
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    Carlos Pena or Hosmer?

  109. GTS says:
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    Better start tomorrow: Wolf @ STL or Stauffer @ Petco?

  110. Steve says:
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    @scalez: There goes the 27 K no-hitter.

  111. scalez says:
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    @Steve: ha!

  112. elwood blues says:
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    In an NL only League,, i need a pickup for saves..
    my 3 choices are : Melancon, Sanchez, and Padilla..
    is that the right order?
    or Sanchez first?

  113. Mr2Bits says:
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    Beachy is pitching like he is f”ing pissed off tonight…love it.

  114. scalez says:
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    @Mr2Bits: yessir

  115. scalez says:
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    boy is cookin’

  116. Steve says:
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    @scalez: Be nice if he could jack a home run.

  117. Votto-voom says:
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    The two times I’ve seen Corriea get beat up, 1)pedro Alvarez never left 3rd base on a sac bunt which led to it being a hit and corrie a being chased. 2) Pearce threw a routine grounder into the dugout, before the ump called 2 third strikes balls 2 & 3 making it a full count and then a grand slam. So I guess my question is if the guy ruling what balls were lucky adjusted correctly for this would he be more like a -5.

    Cust asking.

  118. HighUpside says:
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    Has anyone been watching Conor Jackson recently? He showed a lot of potential in ARZ and dealt with a rash of injuries last year. Hes hitting in the 3 hole in OAK now and has been swinging some pretty good wood latley. Getting to bat after Daric Barton (strong OBP) is a plus, I dont see why he couldnt be a potential 20/20 .280 hitter given a full season of at-bats.

    What do you think Grey? Random commenters?

  119. scalez says:
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    @Steve: I hear ya. My offense is batting .147 this week. Still managing to win every offensive category minus AVG & TB
    13 hits in 4 days and they at least made those count I guess.

  120. Steve says:
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    @scalez: I’m at .175 and somehow winning SBs and Runs…

  121. scalez says:
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    @Steve: me too I have 12 runs on 13 hits and 4SB lol

  122. HighUpside says:
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    Ok well 20/20 is a bit optimistic, but I like the upside! >.<

  123. Flunkie says:
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    Why did you tell me to drop Beachy for Travis Wood? :(

  124. ETMcgee says:
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    I dropped fringe guys to pick up hosmer. Hoping he tears it up in the first couple games so i can trade him away…

  125. Iceman says:
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    Beachy’s been peachy, but what’s his innings limit? Could he be useless by the fantasy playoffs, and if so, should I trade him midseason?

  126. Steve says:
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    Am I right in thinking that Espinosa is one of those guys whose true value will only become apparent at the end of the season when you look back and think “that was pretty useful in my MI slot”?

    Cos right now (apart from yesterday’s 3-run donk obviously), he just feels like an AVE drain.

  127. Steve says:
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    Might help if the Braves could play some defence.

  128. Tony says:
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    I’d like to pat myself on the back for picking up and playing TRUMBO today since I needed a 1B and had an expendable player….

    go beachy!

  129. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Tony: Go Beachy indeed! Would be nice to see some runs behind him.

    That offense did him no favors last inning – after Matt Vasgersian made it a point to mention that they have the 2nd best fielding % in the league – which we all know means very very little.

  130. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @3FingersBrown: Defense rather… Braves infield looked awful!

  131. Joel says:
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    Grey: in my 6×6 h2h leaue, when Feliz comes off of DL tomorrow, I’m gonna have to cut either Brett Wallace, Napoli, Anibal Sanchez or Harang. Wallace and nap rotate with Orlando cabrera in my IF spot. My other starting pitchers are CC, Hamels, marcum, Brett Anderson, Pineda, Harang and Bumgartner. On the other hand, is the Brett wallace mirage over, and is napoli worth having around playing less than half the time? Who would you cut out of those 4?

  132. yanks4life says:
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    The following pitchers in my league are available, drop Broxton for any of the following? Lilly,Hudson,Zimmerman,Wolf,or Hellickson

  133. Urban Achievers says:
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    you’re in denial on Cahill

  134. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Double-play would be good right now.

  135. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Steve: i agree

  136. Steve says:
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    Phew.

  137. RonWashington'sStache says:
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    I just dealt away Aviles to acquire M. Reynolds. Thoughts?

  138. Steve says:
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    Come on Heyward. Time to bolster this week’s .091 AVE.

  139. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Or not.

  140. scalez says:
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    @Steve:

    He can’t hit anything lately. He could go out boozing and drive Billy Joel and Matthew Broderick home and still not hit anything.

  141. Steve says:
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    @scalez: Yeah, about a week ago it looked as though he might be getting something going, but apparently not.

  142. scalez says:
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    @Steve: someone needs to shake him up…like when Vito Corleone slapped Johnny Fontane. “You can act like a man!!”

  143. knighttown says:
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    All you LA guys, how bad is that shot show out there? I’m not suggesting we trade Matt Kemp for a Shamrock Shake but is there some risk he’ll go into a funk. Would you dangle him out there for soemthing like:

    Halladay/Kendrick or Starlin
    F-Her/Starlin or Kendrick

    Or just hold on and enjoy the ride.

  144. royce! says:
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    @Steve: No kidding. I’m rocking the 0-19 line in my h2h. Though my pitching is doing great: 1.20/0.80/14 K. So I’m only losing 4-9! Freaking h2h.

  145. knighttown says:
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    Is Madson still the closer? Drop him for Sanchez?

  146. Casey Blake's Beard says:
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    Hanley just traded for Stauffer and A Soriano in my league. I campaigned to have people veto and we only needed one more to veto but the trade went through. Makes me wanna puke.

  147. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @royce!: At least you’re pitching… My opponent farted out an 0-30 against me last Sunday. I beat him 12-0 for my first shutout in 5 years with this league. Sometimes it’s better to be luck than good.

  148. Dat Dude says:
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    Stache!

    In an NL only league and I own both Salas and Sanchez. I want to spend some FAAB $ on Melancon tonight for our FAAB. Which one do you rather have the rest of the way? Sanchez over Salas? Or is it just a crapshoot?

  149. Whiskey Diet says:
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    @Casey Blake’s Beard: Damn, that’s frustrating. Some owner getting rich at the expense of another’s impatience/incompetence. Nothing worse. If it’s any consolation, here’s two trades that went down in my league that make my blood pressure rise:

    E. Andrus for H. Street

    Bautista / D. Murphy for Price / Harrison / Britton / Martin

    Not as bad as the Hanley one but still…leaves you scratching your head as to why you didn’t make an offer earlier.

  150. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    Grey, Would you get rid of any of the following pitchers on my staff to take Cueto off the DL and start Sunday or Drop him…

    Beachy
    I. Kennedy
    J.valverde
    J.Broxton
    C.Kimbrel
    J.Chacin
    S.Marcum
    F.Liriano
    G.Gonz
    M.Bumgarner? 5×5 H2H yahoo Thanks!!

  151. scalez says:
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    @Whiskey Diet: last season I was in a league where someone traded Quentin & a pair of closers (Lidge and Franklin I think) for Cargo & F-Her. I’m still pissed.

  152. scalez says:
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    Prado!

  153. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    also… is Melancon for sure gonna be the closer?

  154. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    I guess it’s a waiting game with Melancon.. that’s what I’m taking from your last round up lol

  155. Derrick says:
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    Is Beachy, Valverde and Andrus too much to give up for Hanley? Or should I pull the trigger?

  156. scalez says:
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    @Derrick: Id do it

  157. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    @Derrick: i wouldn’t

  158. MJD22 says:
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    What kind of stats should we expect from Hosmer?

  159. Wilsonian says:
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    @scalez: fuck Prado. Sorry, I’m bitter…dude hasn’t done anything all year, then obviously when I’m playing against him he shows up. The team I’m playing is 12-22 today and I’m 3-17. My 9-4 lead is now a 6-7 deficit.

  160. ken plane says:
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    Liriano and D Hudson are both available, which would you pick up? Possible drops would be Bumgarner, Norris, E. Sanchez, A. Torres or McGehee.

  161. scalez says:
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    @Wilsonian: my bad…I don’t own Prado anywhere but he put me into a succesful save situation. Would have much preferred it had been Heyward.

  162. yanks4life says:
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    Asked this question earlier but I forgot there were two hudson’s. The following pitchers in my league are available, drop Broxton for any of the following? Lilly, Daniel Hudson,Zimmerman,Wolf,or Hellickson

  163. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    @scalez: Kimbrel looks like he’s back in rare form!

  164. scalez says:
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    @tggq21: I’ll take the conversion, that’s for sure.

  165. Steve says:
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    Yeah, fuck Prado. Good lord. My opponent has 5 dingers this week. 1 from Bruce (OK, fair enough), 2 from Avila and one each from Melky and Prado.

    Kimbrel save is scant consolation.

  166. nick m. says:
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    Baker, Humber, or Stauffer for a spot start tomorrow?

  167. Vince says:
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    12 team, H2H, 5×5, Non keeper

    C: Montero
    1B: Cabrera
    2B: Phillips
    SS: Andrus
    3B: Youk
    OF: J-Up
    OF: Pence
    OF: Rasmus
    Util: Lind

    SP: Lester, Verlander, Liriano, Scherzer, Latos, Lilly, Beachy, Norris
    RP: Walden, Farnsworth, Frank², Aardsma, Lidge (DL)

    Grey, some guy wants Lind from me. Do you think that offering my Lind + Andrus for his Hanley would be fair enough? Would it be worth making the trade? Another option would be my Liriano (or Latos?) + Lind for his Felix… What trade would you rather offer first?

  168. Wilsonian says:
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    @scalez: ha, not mad at you, just that prick, Prado. I’m also now getting beat in RBI 23-9 because I dealt Berkman to this guy for Dunn a week and a half ago. And you see how that’s worked out for me.

  169. Steve says:
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    @Wilsonian: Hah. I’m down 22-9.

  170. Steve says:
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    Would have been a bit easier to take if that asshole Prado had hit the dinger while Beachy was still in the game.

  171. scalez says:
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    @Steve: cosign

  172. Steve says:
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    Kinda worried if MMD can draw a walk out of Kennedy…

  173. Trevor

    tggq21 says:
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    looks like Kennedy is about to shit the bed again.

  174. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, seriously.

  175. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Who do you like best for saves the rest of the year? Padilla, Santos, or Madson?

  176. scalez says:
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    @tggq21: ghost of Mary Jo Kopechne strikes again!

  177. Alcesto says:
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    Yo Grey, I’ve got these 4 guys:

    Kuroda @ Mets
    Wandy @ Pitt
    Zimmerman @ FLA
    Volquez @ Cubs

    I like them in that order, starting Kuroda and Wandy, sitting the other two clowns. Am I off base here?

  178. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Madson

    @Alcesto: You know your situation with max IP and all better than me, but I’d start Zimmermann too.

  179. RichC says:
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    Ibanez on a three game tear after an 0-35 slump.
    Even his outs are hit on the screws.

    Tabata is 4-29 last 2 weeks. His hot start has faded.

    Ride with Ibanez while he is hot?

  180. Steve says:
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    Always nice when a guy you picked up for the short-schedule day goes deep in his first AB.

  181. Derrick says:
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    Utility spot – Reynolds or Smoak the rest of the way?

  182. Steve says:
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    @Grey: And again. Must be some sort of Celtic brotherhood thing.

  183. Hardcore Midget says:
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    Drop Jerry Sands for Hosmer?

  184. Black Beard says:
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    Drop Alvarez for Hosmer?

  185. the grate one says:
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    grey, 2 things:

    1. what does your gut tell you? does thornton get another shot to save? or has that ship sailed?

    2. can you rank these guys in order youd take them to get saves?
    koji, contreras, lyon, thornton

    thanks!

  186. scalez says:
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    Smoak izzzzz raking

  187. AM2 says:
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    HELP!!!!!!

    I have two trades proposed to me:

    TRADE #1

    I get: Evan Longoria
    I give: Robinson Cano

    TRADE #2

    I get: Justin Upton, Coco Crisp, Sergio Santos
    I give: Dustin Pedroia, Alex Avilas, Heath Bell

    My team:

    C- Avila
    1B- Dunn
    2B – Cano
    3B – A. Gordon
    OF – Heyward
    OF – Quentin
    OF – C. Maybin
    UTIL – B. Butler
    UTIL – D. Pedroia

  188. Steve says:
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    A clean inning from Kennedy? No way!

  189. Steve says:
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    @Steve: No come on D-Backs. Let’s have some run support.

  190. Gambler says:
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    Another guy whose xFIP is much greater than his ERA is Jair Jurrjens whose ERA is 1.52, but xFIP is 3.47, a differential of -1.95. On one hand 3.47 is still a good number and maybe he is improving compared to what he has been the past couple of years. On the other hand it is a small sample size, and one of his starts was in San Diego, which I assume would have helped his numbers. So I really have no idea what to think of his start. With that in mind, if strikeouts are the least important factor, how would you rank these pitchers going forward:

    Jurrjens, Ian Kennedy, and Bud Norris

  191. Steve says:
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    Drop Broxton to pick up Melancon?

  192. Wilsonian says:
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    Who wins:

    Wright/Krispie/Dunn/Santos OR Pujols/Bruce/Stanton?

  193. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You bad win karma is catching.

  194. chata says:
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    @RichC:

    tabata is a self-disciplined hitter …. meaning , that , each step along his career path , his coaches have recognized his natural talent and have not
    burdened him with much formalized instruction .
    the thinking in pittsburgh has been ==> if it ain’t broke , then don’t fix it .

    though it sounds they would like to do a reclamation project on his approach , unless he goes into complete failure mode they’re going to allow
    him to try and figure it out for himself .

    now , that may just be the pirate organization’s way of saying that the kid doesn’t take instruction well ,
    but , to me it suggests that his foundation is not all that strong .

  195. Nonstoptalk says:
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    Who wins this one….

    McClutchen, Alex Gordon, Dempster for V-Mart, Utley and Daniel Hudson?

  196. Nonstoptalk says:
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    I take that back now its…

    McClutchen, Alex Gordon, Dempster, Colby Lewis for V-Mart, Utley, Jeter and Daniel Hudson?

    Who wins?

    Thanks in advance Grey

  197. Travis says:
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    Berkman is just crazy hot!! trade him straight up for V mart?

  198. Steve says:
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    I’m down 3-2 in Wins, 2.35-3.69 in ERA, 1.30-1.55 in WHIP, but winning Ks 34-20. Opponent has Nolasco going tomorrow. I have Kuroda (@NYM), Wandy (@Pirates) and The Volq (@Cubs) available to me.

    First two are must-starts methinks. What about the Volq?

  199. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: thanks man. Is it a landslide for the Pujols side? I made the offer on a whim. Doubt it gets accepted, but thought I’d try.

    All things being considered, who do you like better for the rest of the year in a H2H league:

    Smoak or Norris? Yeah, I know, two TOTALLY different things.

  200. Travis says:
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    Berkman for what sp do you think sounds fair?

  201. Steve says:
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    It tastes better when it’s Krispie.

  202. chata says:
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    street …. back to back jacks

  203. chata says:
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    @chata:

    bummer

  204. chata says:
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    glen and mitchell ….. the swamp beavis and butthead

  205. bogbert says:
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    Grey, (1) what’s your take on Morneau? Will he turn it around? Drop him for Reynolds for the UTIL spot?

    Also, (2) I read what you wrote above re: Tabata/Ibanez, but just wanted to confirm: drop Tabata for Ibanez (or Venable or Bourgeois)? SAGNOF…
    Thanks

  206. Grey,

    Masterful post. When are you going to open your league with these superior stats and point keeping? This is why I play fantasy baseball.

    A million,

    And, I will be buying you a tequila shot, gracias, y !feliz seis de mayo!

  207. HM says:
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    Cahill’s xFIP is 3.15! His FIP is 2.84! Those are both in the top 25 in the majors so far. And this is for a guy who has outperformed his FIP every year (including the minors) so far. I’m shaking at visions of the horrible future where his ERA rises all the way to 2.75.

    All five pitchers this year with a sub-2.00 ERA have a big xFIP-ERA differential. Having a sub-2 ERA is pretty much lucky by definition. Of the three you didn’t mention, Josh Johnson’s differential is 1.32, Weaver’s is 1.42, and Haren’s is 1.34. Cahill might not be in their category yet, but he’s no Dustin Moseley.

Comments are closed.