In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I won’t mention it again because I don’t know what it means other than most bars have deals on tequila shots. What I will talk about is the pitchers that are getting lucky thus far according to their xFIP. If you don’t know what the xFIP I’m talking about. Read the following: xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Dustin Moseley – -2.21. I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games. At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.
Alexi Ogando – -1.89. “His stuff is soooooo nasty!” That’s you. Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever? Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.
Josh Tomlin – -1.57. It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers. Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.
Zach Britton – -1.53. Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9). Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point. Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.
Kevin Correia – -1.45. Wait, Correia actually sucks? C’mon! Get outta town, Grey!
Justin Masterson – -1.42. Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2’s, at least you should’ve known. But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward. At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.
Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38. To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.
Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29. This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel. Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher. Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.
Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned. If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.
Trevor Cahill – -1.23. Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.