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With the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign ups in full swing, we look at what last year’s RCLs showed us.  I.e., this is what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year.  Across thirty-six 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs. win.  Some quick points upfront.  There were 5 outfielders and one utility, so if you play in a Yahoo league with three outfielders and two utility, I’d expect more offense across the board.  Not much, but some.  There was a 180 games started max for pitchers.  6.5 is average in a 12 team league, not 6 because the last place team has 1 point, not zero.  Finally, the RCLs are made up of guys that are probably more competitive than your casual fantasy baseball leaguemates, so if you can hit these benchmarks, you should be in good shape.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 12 team fantasy baseball league:

Runs – 997

The average team last year scored 973 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,108 runs with the average hitter contributing 85 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 24 runs.  So 24 runs on top of 973 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 997 runs or 77 runs/player.

Home Runs — 257

The average team hit 237 homers.  To win, you needed 294 homers or 23 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 237 or 257 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 970

The average team needed 936 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,071 or 82 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 970 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 176

The average team needed 162 steals.  To win, you had to get 214 or 17 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 9 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 176 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .267

The average team’s, uh, average is .2674.  To win, you had to get a .2806.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .267 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,305

The average team’s Ks are 1,168.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,384 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 39 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,305 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 82

The average team’s pitchers won 82 games.  To win, you needed to win 99.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3 games.  (Any Astro starter is good for at least three wins.)  I go for average here, which is 82 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 126

The average team’s relievers closed out 91 games.  To win, you needed 146  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 126 saves.

ERA — 3.51

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.59 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.17 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.51 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.19

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.23 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.15 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.19 WHIP.

  1. gordon says:
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    These ‘target’ posts are always helpful. Thanks.

    Wilson Ramos or Devin Mesoraco vs Ryan Doumit?

    I’m pretty inclined to not taking a catcher till really late but having a hard time picking between these three. Thoughts anyone?

  2. james d says:
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    How would you adjust these numbers for a 12man league with standard yahoo rosters?
    C
    1b
    2b
    3b
    SS
    OF x3
    UTIL x2

    Last year I did a crude guess by adjusting for roster size and then arbitrarily increasing the numbers I got assuming that the lowest producers would be the ones not dropped

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @james d, I’d add 5 to 10% to the hitting categories.

  3. Wade8813 says:
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    How did you decide how many points you wanted in each category?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wade8813, Cause each would be a safe number to aim for so if you fall a bit below you can still make up that ground.

      • Wade8813 says:
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        @Grey, But how do you decide that 9 points is safe in WHIP but only 7 points is safe in BA? Why not 8 in both? Or 8.5 WHIP and 7.5 BA?

        Also, have you considered hosting a forum so people could ask for help there instead of flooding your posts with comments that are unrelated to the post, or that relate but are only relevant to their team?

  4. mulkowsky says:
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    Cool stuff. Could you also post the average Standings Gain Points for each category across the leagues. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @mulkowsky, What do you mean?

      • mulkowsky says:
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        @Grey, Standings Gain Points is the average number of each stat (HR’s, SB’s, etc.) needed to move up one point (on average) in each stat category. It’s one of the classic ways of translating projected stats into fantasy values. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @mulkowsky, Isn’t it already listed in the post for each category?

          • mulkowsky says:
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            @Grey, TV commercials when I was 8 were right, reading IS fundamental. And I am an idiot. Excuse me while I change my user name so I can post again without shame.

            Thanks for all the great work and for putting up with your slower readers. :)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @mulkowsky, No problem…

  5. Tony says:
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    This is great! How would they look for an 11 Team AL only?

    T

    • Tony says:
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      @Tony, whoa whoa whoa…. tony? please add a # or something to the end of your name! ha… Tony’s are the best, but I can’t be letting people think you are me. Or can I? Tony2 sounds good?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tony, Until I have the projections, I don’t have those numbers yet.

  6. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    @Grey….can you help me w/ my keeper league?

    10 team 8×8 h2h(TB’s,OBP,XBH….IP,K/9,QS)

    I won this league last yr,but there are a few problems for 2012.Anyway,I need to keep 10.

    Carlos Beltran
    Ryan Braun
    Robinson Cano
    Prince Fielder
    Carl Crawford
    Dexter Fowler
    Alex Gordon
    Mike Morse
    Mike Napoli
    Jimmy Rollins
    Pablo Sandoval

    Brandon Beachy
    Rafael Betancourt
    Doug Fister
    Joel Hanrahan
    Felix Hernandez
    Ubaldo Jimenez
    Mat Latos
    Roy Oswalt
    Micheal Pineda
    David Price
    Max Scherzer
    Joakim Soria
    Jose Valverde
    Ryan Vogelsong

    Obviously I keep Braun,Cano,Fielder,Felix,Price and Pineda….but the other 4 are tricky.

    SS is so weak that I want to keep Rollins;and Ubaldo and Latos are tempting in a K/9 league.

    what do y’think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Oilcan Giuseppe, Braun, Cano, Fielder, Felix, Price, Pineda, Latos, Beachy, Gordon, Sandoval…

  7. Jake

    Jake says:
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    When I saw this I immediately thought of Steve’s conversation with Grey about his new shoes. http://youtu.be/uGi_r9xlvqE
    A more Razzballesque title might’ve been “Broken Hipsters”.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jake, Ha!

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey, Hehe, that is cool.

        Just so we’re clear, I don’t have a beard or kooky glasses…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Steve, Yet…

          • Steve says:
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            @Grey, You’re kidding, right? My eyesight may start to fail, but I don’t have enough years left to grow a beard worthy of the name.

            If the Taliban ever taker over here, I’ll be one of the first up against the wall.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Steve, Maybe if you grow your hair from your head down and chest up?

              • Steve says:
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                @Grey, Um, yeah. We could have some issues there too.

                I’ve got more chance of growing a second nose.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  @Steve, Sideburn extensions?

                  • Steve says:
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                    @Grey, Fake ones?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Steve, What a man’s gotta do!

                    • Steve says:
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                      @Grey, Bring it, Osama – I’m ready for you!

                      What?

                      Oh.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Steve, You should move up the ranks quickly because your name would be easy for Americans to remember and villainize.

  8. Curt says:
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    Keeper League, Pineda or Matt Moore??………

    • anarchy burger says:
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      @Curt, moore

  9. Tony says:
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    anyone not in an RCL still interested? RCL #11 needs one more due to someone dropping, its a $50 buy in league, been that way for 3-4 yrs, hit me up at youngy_03@yahoo.com

  10. Hustler says:
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    My 1st Official Team of 2012 (YAHOO STANDARD, 12 team, H2H)

    1. (8) Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
    2. (17) Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
    3. (32) Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
    4. (41) Zack Greinke (Mil – SP)
    5. (56) Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
    6. (65) B.J. Upton (TB – OF)
    7. (80) Howie Kendrick (LAA – 1B,2B,OF)
    8. (89) Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP)
    9. (104) Drew Stubbs (Cin – OF)
    10. (113) Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
    11. (128) Ryan Madson (Cin – RP)
    12. (137) Jayson Werth (Was – OF)
    13. (152) Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP)
    14. (161) Kenley Jansen (LAD – RP)
    15. (176) Ervin Santana (LAA – SP)
    16. (185) Peter Bourjos (LAA – OF)
    17. (200) Jhoulys Chacin (Col – SP)
    18. (209) David Robertson (NYY – RP)
    19. (224) Mike Minor (Atl – SP)
    20. (233) Brad Peacock (Oak – SP)
    21. (248) Eduardo Núñez (NYY – 2B,3B,SS)
    22. (257) Álex Ríos (CWS – OF)
    23. (272) Jon Rauch (NYM – RP)

    Looks like I’m very short on saves and behind on HRs What is your opinion??

    • Tony says:
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      @Hustler, kinsler and zimm back to back? You must be a glutton for punishment, was Pabol Sandoval there when you took zimmerman? I’d have taken him to average out kinslers mediocre avg and not take two health concerns back to back in my first 3 picks. Stubbs and BJ Upton? phewww you better pray Votto and Howie bat .375 this yr to balance all that out. I like the votto, kinsler, bum, and jordan zimm picks, but you’re right you are kind of lacking power and saves. The guys that give you power are pretty low average hitters. Hope stubbs or bj upton start hot and flip them for a slow starter maybe?

    • Skeptic says:
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      @Hustler, Not sure about your outfield. Should’ve taken an of instead of kinsler and let Kendrick be your 2b

      • Vulture says:
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        @Skeptic, Couldn’t predict Kendrick would be there at 80…I’m shopping Kinsler now.

  11. Lance Berkman says:
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    I get 12s in every category. I think it’s cause I draft myself late, essentially adding a first rounder in the late teen rounds. Those that waste that pick on the Alvarez and tabatas of the world..well they don’t get 12s

    • Tony says:
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      @Lance Berkman, ha lance, i like how you were an afterthought last yr, now people are drafting you in the 7-8th rounds like you shaved 10 yrs off your age and 10 inches off your waist.

      Last yr you were a bargain, this year…. overrated, sorry.

      • Lance Berkman says:
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        @Tony, >:O

  12. Bourne says:
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    Based on total estimates after a 12 team snake in ESPN I am hitting these numbers easily enough but I am still only getting 3-5 points a category estimated

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bourne, Not sure what you mean.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Bourne, Likely because the projections can’t take into account injuries. So Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler are projected to hit their full-season targets even though it’s unlikely they’ll reach 500 at-bats (based on injury history alone).

      So I’m not surprised the projections are way above Grey’s target cat totals. Reality will be sliced more in Grey’s direction though.

  13. ridonkulous says:
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    hey grey…if youre building a keeper team, and you want to maximize the awesomeness of your keepers who are your picks (in order )from the following?

    hanley, reyes, lawrie, castro, hosmer, strasburg, jennings, moore

    spanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ridonkulous, How many keepers?

      • ridonkulous says:
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        @Grey, we can keep 5 and can keep however long we want.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @ridonkulous, Castro, Jennings, Lawrie, Hosmer, Strasburg…

  14. Vulture says:
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    Based purely on the stats…how lopsided is this trade?? who wins

    Giving: Kinsler, Upton, Stubbs

    Receiving: Morse, Jennings, Walden (CL)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Vulture, What Upton?

      • Vulture says:
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        @Grey, B.J.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Vulture, Looking at it again, I didn’t need to know which Upton. Sorry… It’s not a good trade.

      • emceeperiod says:
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        @Grey, nothing, what Upton with you? (2 weeks late u probably won’t see this but its stillgood)

  15. Wake Up says:
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    12 team 6×6 (OPS and QS) 7 keepers

    Longoria
    Hanley
    Morse
    Lawrie
    CarGo
    CC
    I Kennedy
    Shields
    Heyward
    Choo
    Braun
    Kimbrel

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up, Longoria
      Hanley
      Braun
      Lawrie
      CarGo
      CC
      Heyward
      Kennedy

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey, Thanks. The first 6 were easy. I wasn’t sure about Heyward, Choo or Morse but was leaning Heyward too. Thanks again. This was a great post. The only thing I’m doing differently is shooting for a .270

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Wake Up, No problem…

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey, I can’t believe it but Ichiro and Butler are looking good to me this year? Also, Guerra is going so, so much later than Jansen…I might have to avoid the LAD CL shituation…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Wake Up, Yeah, agreed on all counts. Jansen is very enticing though for his upside.

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Grey, Yeah I’d like to own him but not in the 150′s…isn’t that a bit too early for someone who isn’t the closer yet?(even though we know he will be, shouldn’t we still be getting a discount? can you throw together a MDC feeding frenzy and drive up Guerra?)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  @Wake Up, I already have Jansen silly-high in rankings considering he’s not the de facto closer yet.

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey, I know. But Jansen seems to be going even earlier than your ranking. Any chance he goes out on the town with TLR and Miggy…no wait Loney is on the same team…Loney should take him out, and then have Kenley drive home…yes, make that happen please…

  16. Howard says:
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    Grey, thanks a lot for this post. It really helped me last year in winning my league and I actually searched for it yesterday!
    Just wanted share this tribute to Gary Carter with all the readers:
    http://youtu.be/AY5RSmXzfvc

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Howard, No problem, thanks for sharing.

      • Howard says:
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        @VinWins, I did see that Vin, I wished I had been there.

  17. 3FingersBrown says:
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    @Howard: Sweet. I’m a huge fan of The Kid from his days in Flushing.

    @Grey: Nice article. Like Howard, last year it helped me place in the money.

    Trade talk: 6×6 h2h, with QS and OBP added. Right now, I’m keeping Kennedy for a 21st round pick and Castro for an 11th. I’ve received offers of picks for both of those guys. What pick would it take for you to move them

    I’m thinking a 6th round pick for Kennedy and a 7th for Castro. If I move one of those guys, I’d be left with…

    Utley (keep for a 5)
    Gardner (8)
    Papelbon (9)
    Luebke (25)
    Walden (25)

    I figure I’d keep Utley if I deal a keeper. As Keanu asked in “Speed,”

    “What do you do?”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @3FingersBrown, Wow, when Keanu asks like that, it suddenly feels much more serious. I wouldn’t move either for those picks.

      • 3FingersBrown says:
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        @Grey, Serious stuff. I hear you. I’m thinking I can get more for those guys.

  18. MyTeamBlows says:
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    Grey- Slept through half of my draft with an STL Mardi Gras hangover. Not happy because I actually had the #1 pick. What do you think of this squad in a 14 team H2H league?

    C- Lucroy
    1B- Miggy
    2b- Weeks
    3B- Beltre
    SS- Cozart
    OF-McCutchen
    OF- Upton
    OF- Kendrick
    Util- Lawrie
    Util-Konerko
    Bench- Tabata/Moustakas/Trout/Presley

    SP- Garza/Latos/Danks/Peacock/Sanchez/Teheran/R. Delgado
    RP- Walden/Perez/Feliz/Chapman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MyTeamBlows, Your team doesn’t blow, but even assuming that’s BJ Upton, you are light on speed. That could be helped with your bench and your league looks shallow. Pitching is a bit wonky. You went a little too much for upside, not enough saves and sacrificed some pitching for hitting.

  19. MyTeamBlows says:
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    I give Miggy, Beltre, McCutchen

    I get Kemp, Bruce, King Felix

    Would you do this deal???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MyTeamBlows, Nope

  20. Prettay, prettay, prettay good says:
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    I’m in a 14 team league. Do I move those totals up or down? I’m guessing down, but then again, I’m the guy who said, “Finally, I can buy a non-retro Twins jersey and wear it proudly, since they signed Mauer to an 8-year deal. Don’t have to worry about them trading him to the AL East as soon as I get his jersey.”

    Technically, I was right. They definitely won’t be able to trade that contract. *sigh* Still, the point is that my judgment is questionable. Can you help me out?

  21. TheNewGuy says:
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    Burnett a sleeper now he’s with the Buckos? NL, bigger ballpark to cure his gopheritis and all that…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy, Blech, I wouldn’t go near him.

  22. Chris says:
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    @Grey:

    Deep league keeper. Each player kept requires the loss of a draft pick in the remaining ’12 re-draft. Which 3 of 4 would you keep?

    Kinsler (lose 31st overall pick)
    Santana (lose 60th overall pick)
    D Hudson (lose 150th overall pick)
    Cuddyer (lose 210th overall pick) – 2B eligible

    We use MIs too, so keeping Kinsler and Cuddyer both isn’t necessarily out of the question.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chris, Not Cuddyer…

  23. Chris says:
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    @Chris:

    It’s standard 5×5 roto scoring.

  24. KevinB says:
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    @Grey … It has been mentioned on the site that M. Cabrera is your #1 pick in a draft. Would you also look at M. Cabrera as the #1 pick in a keeper league draft as opposed to someone like Kemp or Votto or someone else?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @KevinB, I’d take Miggy.

  25. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Hey Grey, how much did you get paid to allow your likeness to be used in this iPad Baseball Stars game?

    http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8207/photoih.png

    And who’s your hard working assistant on the right with the completely realistic body type? I think she’d make a great role model for my daughter.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Actually think I might have a trademark infringement case because I did NOT allow my image to be used.

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey, And it is clearly YOUR likeness. I’d get Jackie Chiles on the horn ASAP.

  26. Dawg says:
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    @Grey:

    5×5 vanilla keeper, draft round/cost is after the name:

    Lincecum 7
    Votto 7
    Kemp 3
    McCutchen N/A
    Lawrie N/A
    Bumgarner N/A
    Hosmer N/A
    Harper, Bryce N/A
    Beachy 24
    Wright 1
    Gonzalez, Gio N/A
    Upton, B.J. N/A
    Montero, Jesus N/A
    Cabrera, Asdrubal 20

    I can keep eight, your help is appreciated. Thx.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dawg, Kemp, Lincecum, Votto, McCutchen, Lawrie, Bumgarner, Hosmer, Asdrubal… Get a deeper league…

      • Dawg says:
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        @Grey,
        Asdrubal instead of Gio, huh? SS Scarcity?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Dawg, Yeah, and bats are safer than arms.

  27. ajk says:
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    what would be the numbers needed for a 20 team league?

  28. chata says:
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    @ Grey :

    enjoy comparing your numbers (and strategy) to data from my
    specific leagues … so for that , much thanks .

    also , spoke with adrian gonzalez , yesterday .
    told me to tell you …. that he’s going to hit “over” 40 home runs this year .
    he wants all non-believers to “… stay the hell away from me on draft day .”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @chata, JD answered your question how to use the War Room. I think fairly well.

      • chata says:
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        @Grey,

        yeah , i just can’t figure out the 1st step … typing in the team name .
        tried it both ways … open and save download .
        have no idea where other guys are seeing this “read only” notice .
        it doesn’t show up on my user input page nor on any of the other pages .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @chata, I have no idea, you have to ask JD or someone in that post.

          • chata says:
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            @Grey,

            yep .
            tried that .

            was just responding to your reply .

  29. Hawk says:
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    10 team vanilla 5×5 keeper – no keeper time limit.

    Roster of 25. Broken down as 2 each of (C, 1b, 2b, 3b, SS), 4 OF, 1 DH and 10 pitchers.

    We have to keep 12 out of 25 man roster. I’m keeping:
    Hitters:
    Joey Votto
    Ben Zobrist
    Jose Reyes
    Shin-Soo Choo
    Mike Stanton
    Mike Morse

    Pitchers:
    CC Sabathia
    Dan Hudson
    Yovani Gallardo
    Michael Pineda

    My choices for the last two slots are:
    Mark Reynolds
    Alex Avila
    Drew Stubbs
    Lance Berkman

    Who do I protect and why?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Hawk, I don’t like any of your choices… Avila and Reynolds…

  30. marti says:
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    ok grey won league for 3rd time in 8 years last year but had to trade some pieces to get win. N/L auction keeper league we draft one american league pitcher and hitter in a snake draft b4 the auction. Here are my keeperst to choose from. Kershaw $21, Kemp $31, Stubbs $16, Kennedy $14, Kimbrel $15, Lincecum $26, Jesus Guzman $6, Lahair $6, Jordan Schafer $6. I can keep up to 6 players. I’ve always spent about $200 on bats and $60 on pitchers but this year will have to spend more on pitching. I was thinking of keeping the first 5 and taking a flyer on lahair what do you think? Or I could just keep 5. What would be your strategy on draft day?

  31. poop says:
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    how much should i add to come up with these targets for an NFBC league 5×5? if this has been posted already sorry and please link to that shizz

    • poop says:
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      @poop, never mind i have myself for brains just basically add a C to the mix…

  32. Thomas says:
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    How would you adjust these target numbers if you were playing categorie H2H baseball instead? What’s more reliable week to week? Ex. Would you shoot for more Power less speed, more pitching less hitting, more whip less wins? Etc.

  33. Gregorio says:
    (link)

    12 team 6X6 H2H Yahoo Auction Keeper League…

    Struggling with who to keep $260 budget, can keep up to five

    Think I get the most value here:
    CJ Wilson – $3
    Espinosa – $1
    Kimbrel – $7
    Pence – $19
    McCann – $19

    Also have these guys:
    Adrian Gonzo – $51
    Aramis Ramirez – $12
    Mike Trout – $1
    Tommy Hanson – $20

    Figure I can get gonzo back at that price if I want.

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